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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,441
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:45am Nov 14, 2011 2:45am
Quoting Blobik
You mean EUR will drop in straight line to 1.1 soon (and will be holding a short then ).
Blobik. Trade based on your own strategy always but if you want a hint, the Euro is not a powerhouse as it is plagued with structural problems.
Therefore the wise thing would be to sell rallies... just like we all did on Friday.
Don't worry, I am sure you will get another opportunity

Look at my daily chart and tell me what the overall trend is.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,442
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:47am Nov 14, 2011 2:47am
AW
Brooks is an excellent author, and once one gets through the dialect he writes in, there are very solid underlying principles.
They are good on all time frames for a way to interpret PA

I use the word dialect because he does invent some of his own language.
  • #9,443
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:51am Nov 14, 2011 2:51am
Quoting AaronWard
Either that, or earn to play price action on the 5 min charts. The book by Al Brooks on this is outstanding.
if you made it through that mess you deserve a major award
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,444
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:54am Nov 14, 2011 2:54am
Just put on the Sherlock Holmes hat and follow the clues Brooks leaves.

edit: He is a bit controversial. Some enjoy him others do not.
  • #9,445
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:54am Nov 14, 2011 2:54am
Quoting MotownPhill
does anyone have a link that will give live feed of the yeilds on foreign bonds?
http://www.forexpros.com/central-banks/

The default is the 8 most commonly traded currencies, but you can add any others you want.

Good luck and Good trading
  • #9,446
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:54am Nov 14, 2011 2:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Excellent. I am glad you did not take the loss
I hope you are in positive too. I slept only some hours because of my trade.. Now I am waiting, not sure that I should trade the 5M/15M charts instead in this "chaos".

3 days ago I expected EURUSD to go up to 1.4000 then a sharp reversal to south. Now I think the same, if it goes up, I suppose that is a very hard resistance level.
  • #9,447
  • Nov 14, 2011 2:57am Nov 14, 2011 2:57am
Quoting The Fool
if you made it through that mess you deserve a major award
Award.... my name A. Ward...

Yup, making money pretty much every day. But it really is a lot of work.

Foto -- your right, he invents his own language to talk about price movement and bars. I think it is because he spent so much time programing EAs. Regardless, I find his dialect far superior to what I was using before.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,448
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:00am Nov 14, 2011 3:00am
I think this is in an uptrend based on the daily chart with upward potential.
  • #9,449
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:00am Nov 14, 2011 3:00am
Quoting w1nner
I hope you are in positive too. I slept only some hours because of my trade.. Now I am waiting, not sure that I should trade the 5M/15M charts instead in this "chaos".

3 days ago I expected EURUSD to go up to 1.4000 then a sharp reversal to south. Now I think the same, if it goes up, I suppose that is a very hard resistance level.
1.38xx area is a major supply zone, but yes the 1.4000/50 area is very major resistance now.

This is what I do when I want to sell a rally. As you know it is almost impossible to pick "the" top accurately. As you saw on Friday, most of us were off by 50 to 60 pips. So, I enter where I feel the top is with only one third of my position. This way if it goes further up and settles at another resistance, I can enter another third of my position. Once it finally reverses and confirms the downward move, I pick a pullback to enter the final piece.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,450
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:04am Nov 14, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Styngray
I think this is in an uptrend based on the daily chart with upward potential.
Hi Styngray, Please post charts when you make a statement like that.
If you have not yet read page 1, please do so at your next opportunity. It lists the objectives and rules of this thread and also contains many resources for new and experienced traders alike.

Welcome to EurAnalysis.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,451
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:09am Nov 14, 2011 3:09am
We're at 21 ema dynamic support on 4HR. 12HR candle should be bullish for a US session short. Dollar index at supply zone breakout on 4HR. Expecting 12 HR bearish candle for US session open
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,452
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:09am Nov 14, 2011 3:09am
Hello guys,
This is my EURUSD view >


Inserted Video


Cheers
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #9,453
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:13am Nov 14, 2011 3:13am
Quoting Styngray
I think this is in an uptrend based on the daily chart with upward potential.

I think it is no trend or rather a short on EURAUD.

Quoting PipTrapper
1.38xx area is a major supply zone, but yes the 1.4000/50 area is very major resistance now.

This is what I do when I want to sell a rally. As you know it is almost impossible to pick "the" top accurately. As you saw on Friday, most of us were off by 50 to 60 pips. So, I enter where I feel the top is with only one third of my position. This way if it goes further up and settles at another resistance, I can enter another third of my position. Once it finally reverses and confirms the downward move, I pick a pullback to enter the final...
Yes, if it goes up there but does it have the power? Now it seems that EURUSD and GBPUSD is trying to close under the 200SMA on H1. If it closes under it, this would also mean we can expect the middle period H4 trends (including other pairs) to continue. OMG, GBPUSD is dropping, when I am out of the market...
  • #9,454
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:18am Nov 14, 2011 3:18am
This is acutally a very interesting thing to discuss. How to determine if there is a trend and what the trend is. I can come up with the following things:
- MA based trend
- PA based trend
- Trendline
- ...
Then we have the different timeframes of course

The thing is that a PA reversal (1-2-3 reversal, etc) of a trend into a new trend is established a lot earlier than an MA or Trendline, which is also why i like it more. What do you guys think.

I'll try to come up with some charts when I'm home.


Quoting PipTrapper
Blobik. Trade based on your own strategy always but if you want a hint, the Euro is not a powerhouse as it is plagued with structural problems.
Therefore the wise thing would be to sell rallies... just like we all did on Friday.
Don't worry, I am sure you will get another opportunity

Look at my daily chart and tell me what the overall trend is.

.
  • #9,455
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:21am Nov 14, 2011 3:21am
Quoting w1nner
I think it is no trend or rather a short on EURAUD.



Yes, if it goes up there but does it have the power? Now it seems that EURUSD and GBPUSD is trying to close under the 200SMA on H1. If it closes under it, this would also mean we can expect the middle period H4 trends (including other pairs) to continue. OMG, GBPUSD is dropping, when I am out of the market...
This is why I was suggesting the scaling in method for you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,456
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:21am Nov 14, 2011 3:21am
Quoting foto
Blobik,
One thing traders need to be on guard against is getting caught up in the moment.
Your posts sound as if you are watching short term charts where every tick appears to be a meaningful move.
Try watching hourlies or longer. Take off your screen anything under that
You will still see good entry and exit levels but it will help change the perspective.

Short term volatility without a solid move on, is just random noise.
Sound Advice!
  • #9,457
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:23am Nov 14, 2011 3:23am
Italian bond auction results coming up around 1000GMT, will move the e/u either way. I have to expect a suspiciously favorable outcome.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,458
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:29am Nov 14, 2011 3:29am
Quoting TheSwede
This is acutally a very interesting thing to discuss. How to determine if there is a trend and what the trend is. I can come up with the following things:
- MA based trend
- PA based trend
- Trendline
- ...
Then we have the different timeframes of course

The thing is that a PA reversal (1-2-3 reversal, etc) of a trend into a new trend is established a lot earlier than an MA or Trendline, which is also why i like it more. What do you guys think.

I'll try to come up with some charts when I'm home.
Candle PA on the smaller TF's is the first signal which is further confirmed by candle PA on the subsequent larger TFs. One of my favorite methods is to wait for a confirmed swing high on a H1 or H4 and then zoom down to an M5 or M1 and pick a swing high with a fib tool (pick the 61.8% retrace upwards of a wave down confirmed by a pin bar and short from there.

However, now that I've been doing that for a while, I almost automatically just pick a specific resistance, wait till price slightly breaches it and open a short to fade it. Sometimes I am wrong (like Friday) but then I do it again at the next resistance (just like I did on Friday) and it finally pays off. Now I have 2 running trades in profit and upon a downtrend confirmation, I will fill the order bucket with my third position on a pullback upwards to a broken support turned resistance. Easy as pie but obviously you cannot count on it 100% especially in this volatile market. The key, as I have stated many times in the past is to only sell on swing high and only buy on swing low. The fibo tool is perfect for that when you use it in conjunction with candle PA and trend lines on the smaller TFs.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,459
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:31am Nov 14, 2011 3:31am
Quoting The Fool
Italian bond auction results coming up around 1000GMT, will move the e/u either way. I have to expect a suspiciously favorable outcome.
It will then be coming out at the same time as the EZ industrial production numbers so the market effect may not be fully understood unless they come out both negative or both positive.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,460
  • Nov 14, 2011 3:37am Nov 14, 2011 3:37am
There is an oscillation on the day chart. Looks like it will head up for a few hundred pips. Sorry I am a newbie so I don't know much about tech analysis.
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