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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,401
  • Nov 13, 2011 5:46pm Nov 13, 2011 5:46pm
Okay... I'm going to church now
And this is what I think:

1.- EURUSD goes higher, nice... okay, no problem, go wherever you want to go, because when it's the Asian close , traders that held their positions during the weekend should take profits, and drive this pair lower.

2.- EURUSD ranges, I come back, do my fundamental analysis and we still see profit taking.

3.-EURUSD drops, so they are already taking profits... mm, depending on the strenght of it, it's still the Asian session.. we could see a bullish london session, (due to ECB toxic bond buying), but after the US opens, we come back to reality and the pair finally drops.

Pbh
  • #9,402
  • Edited Nov 14, 2011 12:45am Nov 13, 2011 5:53pm | Edited Nov 14, 2011 12:45am
Ok, I havent found myself time for a renewed weekly predictions as devils are keeping me busy, but as I stated, for me, underlying fundamentals still didnt change and we are still in a major downtrend.

So right now I have only one concern.
How high shall this correction go? Dont they have enough?

I still consider these ups as deathbed spasm of bulls. They are afraid of impacts of EMU capitulation. Cowards I say, and they will fail.

We were running on hopium since 4.10 and even first peak at 423x was unexpectably strong for me. Arising volatility, inflation race mumbo jumbo could follow. Anyway, this frydays move was possible because US bond vultures and comp. were out of game. So bulls managed to penetrate heavy support at 3666 - 3689 and stopped at next zone at 3774 - 3784 which shall be under pressure. Currently, peaks are created by weekly pivot at 3811.

I think short squeeze to this level was sufficient one and US capital markets do not need to wait for 3843 to sell and assume they are going to convince EMU very soon of the real value of EUR and expect quite nice one sellof at monday.

Regards,

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,403
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:16pm Nov 13, 2011 6:16pm
Hello
this is a question for PT and other experienced traders of this trend. Something happens on my real accoun at alpari and i still on shock. I had a pending buystop order on GBPNZD at 2.06xxx price. Price is currently on 2.03xxx (that is 300 pips under).
whithout any explanation, at 00.54, my order opens as a GAP at 2.09xx price. This means my order is astonishingly now, and instantly 700 pips underwater.

does anybody experiment something like this before?

thank you to all
regards
  • #9,404
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:28pm Nov 13, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting Hardpike
Hello
this is a question for PT and other experienced traders of this trend. Something happens on my real accoun at alpari and i still on shock. I had a pending buystop order on GBPNZD at 2.06xxx price. Price is currently on 2.03xxx (that is 300 pips under).
whithout any explanation, at 00.54, my order opens as a GAP at 2.09xx price. This means my order is astonishingly now, and instantly 700 pips underwater.

does anybody experiment something like this before?

thank you to all
regards
Alpari may have had a data error spike.
None of my charts from 5 different brokers show a spike on GBPNZD. According to Oanda (an ECN broker with direct feed from Interbank) shows the high at 2.05xxx
Therefore, you need to contact Alpari to have this resolved.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,405
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:32pm Nov 13, 2011 6:32pm
Channels on both H4 and Daily charts holding very well so far.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,406
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:46pm Nov 13, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Alpari may have had a data error spike.
None of my charts from 5 different brokers show a spike on GBPNZD. According to Oanda (an ECN broker with direct feed from Interbank) shows the high at 2.05xxx
Therefore, you need to contact Alpari to have this resolved.
Thank you PT. I will.
even more, it happened 50 minutes ago, with price at 2.03xx...not even close to 2.05xxx....

only explanation is that spread wides for a second to 700 pips.... and I am afraid this guys will tell me that...
I will let all know anyway. In my point of view it is not an aceptable behavior.
and everybody must know.
regards
  • #9,407
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:46pm Nov 13, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting Hardpike
Hello
this is a question for PT and other experienced traders of this trend. Something happens on my real accoun at alpari and i still on shock. I had a pending buystop order on GBPNZD at 2.06xxx price. Price is currently on 2.03xxx (that is 300 pips under).
whithout any explanation, at 00.54, my order opens as a GAP at 2.09xx price. This means my order is astonishingly now, and instantly 700 pips underwater.

does anybody experiment something like this before?

thank you to all
regards
Any pending orders placed and left open over the weekend, will be filled at opening price. So, even if you have .1xxxx price as buy or sell, and price opens at .0xxx on sell, or .2xxx on buy, your order will be filled at this price. IMHO, it is best to close all pendings over weekend to prevent what you just experienced. The good thing about this is you will have a choice to make around the trade once this gap closes.
  • #9,408
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:50pm Nov 13, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Any pending orders placed and left open over the weekend, will be filled at opening price. So, even if you have .1xxxx price as buy or sell, and price opens at .0xxx on sell, or .2xxx on buy, your order will be filled at this price. IMHO, it is best to close all pendings over weekend to prevent what you just experienced. The good thing about this is you will have a choice to make around the trade once this gap closes.
Hi gofer

no, I dont think you undertood me. price closed at 2.04, and opens at 2.03.
50 minutes after open, after gap, my order, at 2.06, open at price 2.09.

I hope you understand now
regards
  • #9,409
  • Nov 13, 2011 6:56pm Nov 13, 2011 6:56pm
Hi PT, I see you put supply./demand @ 1.3380, any reasons? I've got mine @ 1.357 as I see some pretty long legged ladies there, am I right?

Quoting PipTrapper
Channels on both H4 and Daily charts holding very well so far.

.
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  • #9,410
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:03pm Nov 13, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting Hardpike
Hi gofer

no, I dont think you undertood me. price closed at 2.04, and opens at 2.03.
50 minutes after open, after gap, my order, at 2.06, open at price 2.09.

I hope you understand now
regards
OHHHH! I would contact broker immediately. If in US contact NFA or CTFC if results not satisfactory.
  • #9,411
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:04pm Nov 13, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
OHHHH! I would contact broker immediately. If in US contact NFA or CTFC if results not satisfactory.
thank you
I will
  • #9,412
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:13pm Nov 13, 2011 7:13pm
Quoting Hardpike
Thank you PT. I will.
even more, it happened 50 minutes ago, with price at 2.03xx...not even close to 2.05xxx....

only explanation is that spread wides for a second to 700 pips.... and I am afraid this guys will tell me that...
I will let all know anyway. In my point of view it is not an aceptable behavior.
and everybody must know.
regards
If there was a 700 pip spread, it would have shown on Oanda.
By the way, I have never ever seen a 700 pip spread on a currency pair before. It would certainly be a Kodak moment... not the spread, but the look on my face if I ever see one.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,413
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:16pm Nov 13, 2011 7:16pm
Someone posted this URL on this forum on this page but I don't find it now. Is it a real risk?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AD01D20111114

"Traders warned the market's continued positive reaction hinges on how Italy's planned sale of 3 billion euros of five-year bonds on Monday is received by the market."
  • #9,414
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:17pm Nov 13, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting jeff_b
Hi PT, I see you put supply./demand @ 1.3380, any reasons? I've got mine @ 1.357 as I see some pretty long legged ladies there, am I right?
That's an old demand line on the daily chart from before the upward correction.
You are correct about 1.3570 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,415
  • Nov 13, 2011 7:22pm Nov 13, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting w1nner
Someone posted this URL on this forum on this page but now I don't find it now. Is it a real risk?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AD01D20111114

"Traders warned the market's continued positive reaction hinges on how Italy's planned sale of 3 billion euros of five-year bonds on Monday is received by the market."
I never rely on one media outlet's articles or news releases.
I read as many as I can and take what they say into consideration.
It all depends on the individual journalist that writes the piece as well and how biased they appear to be.

It is true that Italy has a bond auction on Monday and it makes sense that the results of the auction will have an impact on the Euro.

Just don't buy into the headline... headlines tend to be sensational. Read the contents and filter out the drama. Just look at the facts and ignore the predictions.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,416
  • Nov 13, 2011 8:35pm Nov 13, 2011 8:35pm
I'm still a bit hesitating... about this shorting positions...

Market expectations are running dangerously high that ECB president Mario Dragui will use the removal of the leaders of the euro zone's two most dysfunctional economies to launch a major effort to drive down Italian bond yields to more sustainable levels.

If we know that the ECB is buying bonds TODAY.. and that in the very-short term this is completely bullish, but that it would harm the EZ's economy on the long-run, why don't I look to sell higher?

Got to admit it's an interesting question.

I think that we could see a bullish london session... and after that, it's pure shorting (London close)...

*I reserve the right to change any of my opinions at any time without being able to post them.

Have you ever heard something like, don't fight a central bank??

I still want to know if the ECB did stealth QE on Friday, but I don't know where to get that report from, PT, should be able to help us

Pbh
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  • #9,417
  • Nov 13, 2011 9:11pm Nov 13, 2011 9:11pm
Hello fellow traders, it's been a minute since I posted. I've been extremely busy. My analysis is price moving back up to resistance 3835 area then bearish again. Dollar index at support and Dow/S&P approaching resistance. Stock futures are up for the moment. I'm on the sideline waiting til bearish confirmation during Europe/US session. Hope all is well and everyone here's making pips
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,418
  • Nov 13, 2011 9:29pm Nov 13, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
Hello fellow traders
Good to see you again
  • #9,419
  • Nov 13, 2011 9:44pm Nov 13, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting Pbh
Good to see you again
Couldn't stay away for long. I missed you guys
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #9,420
  • Nov 13, 2011 11:25pm Nov 13, 2011 11:25pm
Okay, seems I screwed . If during London the price does not skyrocket, then we can call the trendline defended. And perhaps reenter short.
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