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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,361
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:32pm Nov 13, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting w1nner
What does it mean?
It means that nobody wants to buy EFSF bonds other than Europe.

So the box remains filled with empty promises...

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,362
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:36pm Nov 13, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting Blobik
I didn't expect such a gap up.
Friday H1 ends in a bull flag - why would you not expect bullish continuation the following week?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,363
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:37pm Nov 13, 2011 3:37pm
It would be in your best interests to keep your emotions in check.

The overall trend is down.

It is supported by the technicals and the fundamentals.

I just spent most of the day compiling data of the major US and European economic indicators

I have posted it all here for your convenience and peace of mind.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,364
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:39pm Nov 13, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3785 now so you can relax
30% relaxed. I would be 100% relaxed around 1.35
  • #9,365
  • Edited 4:08pm Nov 13, 2011 3:42pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting PipTrapper
First one is for the US and second one is for Europe.

Europe doesn't look too good to me.

.
I didn't think the US data was all that bad when you posted the first chart earlier. Looks like the US is not growing but it's at least stable for now.

The Euro charts look ugly.... Kinda like trading the euro these days.

If price gaps up like it is showing on XE (currently at 1.3794) I expect it to run into what used to be strong trend line support that is now resistance that price bounced off on friday.

Remember that fridays rally was a rally on "hope" for Italy. Quite often you see a rally on hope and sell the news. Now that Italy has a new PM is it time to sell the news?

This area is also a demand level between the 1.3828 - 1.3870 that held on the 240 minute chart, The 38.2 fib on the weekly from the 1.4940 high to the 1.3145 low and also is the 38.2 fib level of the last rally on the 240 from the 1.3145 low to the 1.4247 high. Note that the 1.4247 high was also the 61.8 fib level on the weekly.

Off this chart and the "news" I'd consider fading this gap up or wait for it to run slam into resistance and the demand level with a stop about 1.3875.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,366
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:47pm Nov 13, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting The Fool
Friday H1 ends in a bull flag - why would you not expect bullish continuation the following week?
Hmm, if it was a bull flag, shouldn't it make 1-2-3-4-5 correction? I don't see 4-5 though...

But yep, I haven't notice that it may be a flag forming. Still, I entered a trade based on daily, so 1H signals had slightly lower priority.... Hope this was not a grief mistake. I agree with PT, that fundamentals and higher TF technicals point south. I just would be very very happy, to see price respecting this analysis. Cause if price does not, than it points a flaw in the analysis. Some upside risk that was omitted. Some facts that were unnoticed because of biased mind.
  • #9,367
  • Edited 4:06pm Nov 13, 2011 3:54pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It means that nobody wants to buy EFSF bonds other than Europe.

So the box remains filled with empty promises...

.
Right. Nobody wants to be the one holding pandoras box. filled with nothing but hope.


EDIT: And now the EFSF denies the UK Telegraph report about them buying their own bonds.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,368
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:01pm Nov 13, 2011 4:01pm
Whew! open above 1.38.
ADD: tried a short from there, maybe she will come at least to half of the gap.
  • #9,369
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:04pm Nov 13, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting Blobik
Some facts that were unnoticed because of biased mind.
Anytime you feel like you are ready to make a descision based on what you think, try to take the exact opposite view and convince yourself of the opposite path. This may help you expose your bias and assess its merits or faults.

The trade here is not on the euro: its on the euro/dollar exchange rate. The eurozone has lots of problems, true. But the usd is a thoroughly debased instrument. E/U has shown that it will rise in the absence of market panic. The weak USD has virtually no yield and will be sold to fund riskier investments.

Beyond these basic facts is this: nobody anywhere in the CB world wants to see the EMU come apart, and the euro will continue to be supported by coordinated CB actions. That doesn't mean that the e/u can not fall and fall sharply. It just means that you need to be careful about your assumptions re: fundies.

Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,370
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:05pm Nov 13, 2011 4:05pm
Here the Details One
and We are Up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,371
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:06pm Nov 13, 2011 4:06pm
Got closed out on both shorts oh well! Not trading this market we closed above the 50sma on the 4h and 200sma on the 4h and above the 38.2 fib level on the 1 day should have seen this coming! If I miss a sell off so be it but I dont feel safe shorting at this level not when 1.40 is in the back of my mind.. Will remain focused on the M5 and M15 for now!
  • #9,372
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:11pm Nov 13, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting Blobik
Hmm, if it was a bull flag, shouldn't it make 1-2-3-4-5 correction? I don't see 4-5 though...

But yep, I haven't notice that it may be a flag forming. Still, I entered a trade based on daily, so 1H signals had slightly lower priority.... Hope this was not a grief mistake. I agree with PT, that fundamentals and higher TF technicals point south. I just would be very very happy, to see price respecting this analysis. Cause if price does not, than it points a flaw in the analysis. Some upside risk that was omitted. Some facts that were unnoticed...
A bull flag could also be ABC
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,373
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:16pm Nov 13, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting PipKiller
Right. Nobody wants to be the one holding pandoras box. filled with nothing but hope.


EDIT: And now the EFSF denies the UK Telegraph report about them buying their own bonds.
That's because they haven't bought their own bonds yet. They won't have the money until there is something in the EFSF box.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,374
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:20pm Nov 13, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting FXMindset
When you use the word "Will Going that Level" Thats mean you must makes a lot money on forex,since you know where the price heading
Of course I make money That's why I am sharing it here. I gave the head up for the 3830 level last Wednesday.

Now I am giving another head up for 3580 level next few days. We will confirm during US session today
  • #9,375
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:20pm Nov 13, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting Blobik
Whew! open above 1.38.
ADD: tried a short from there, maybe she will come at least to half of the gap.
Blobik:
as euro may go to 3880
3791 - think it's time to SL my sell on friday
i wonder what price is good for you
  • #9,376
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:27pm Nov 13, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting dsugums
Of course I make money That's why I am sharing it here. I gave the head up for the 3830 level last Wednesday.

Now I am giving another head up for 3580 level next few days. We will confirm during US session today
Since you admitted it - Great - Put your analysis here - Complete with Chart - Price Call and Date - Lets see how accurate you are - Of proven then all's the people can learn your money making secret at Forex market

Btw Call an one price in a 'Few Days" Its very easy - I am also can call that "In a Few Days"
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,377
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:27pm Nov 13, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting magicgate
Blobik:
as euro may go to 3880
3791 - think it's time to SL my sell on friday
i wonder what price is good for you
The lower the better, but I am also looking to SL the trade soon. But, hey, right now she seems to be chewing down on this low volume. Lets see, how far she will get.
ADD: Low volume, low volume, but price dances like mad on my chart. Spreads skyrocketed like mad.
  • #9,378
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:30pm Nov 13, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting FXMindset
Since you admitted it - Great - Put your analysis here - Complete with Chart - Price Call and Date (check my previous post last week)

Thanks Fortune Teller
Fortune tellers don't have charts or indis. I will post the levels that need to watch here for head up. If you feel it is useless, you can ignore my post/levels.
  • #9,379
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:32pm Nov 13, 2011 4:32pm
An excerpt from John Maudin's newsletter. Enjoy.

The banks and banking system are effectively insolvent. There are large trade imbalances that make it almost impossible for the weaker Eurozone countries to grow their way out of the problem.

The path of least resistance, and I use that term guardedly, is for the ECB to find its printing press. Perhaps they can borrow one from Bernanke. Yes, I know they are buying sovereign debt now, but they are “sterilizing” it, meaning they sell euro paper to offset the monetary base effects (large oversimplification, I know).

But the money to solve the crisis does not exist. The only way to find it is for the ECB to print money and print in size, enough to lower the value of the euro and make exports cheaper (which gives southern Europe a chance to grow out of its problems). Which is of course something the Germans vehemently oppose, as it goes against their core DNA coding.

But the choice is print or let the euro perish. I see no other realistic solution, aside from massive austerity, willingly accepted by Europeans everywhere, along with the nationalization of their banks, etc., as described above. I think there is even less willingness to endure all that.

It is a hard choice, I know. If you held a gun to my head and asked, “What do you think they will do?” I would have to say, “I think the ECB prints.” But not without a lot of rancor and solemn pledges and maybe a rewriting of the treaty in order to get Germany to go along.

The choice is between a much lower euro or one that is far different from today’s, with a number of countries having left it. There are no good or easy choices.

As a closing aside, a lower euro means lower US and emerging-market exports (Europe is China’s biggest customer!) to Europe and more competition from Europeans in what the rest of the world sells to each other.
  • #9,380
  • Nov 13, 2011 4:34pm Nov 13, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting dsugums
Fortune tellers don't have charts or indis. I will post the levels that need to watch here for head up. If you feel it is useless, you can ignore my post/levels.
I want Ignored your Stupid Post - The Problem is you are the one replied my Post first

Never Mind - You are on my Ignored List now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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