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System Test: Invictus V Fratelli 541 replies

Trading the Invictus method 4 replies

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Invictus

Quoting garyfritz
I have a way to calculate the MTF values so the historic values will be the same as realtime. I'm working on that but it will take me a while -- it's a bit complicated, I'm still learning MQL4, and I don't have much time to work on it.
I couldn't resist...

I have a preliminary non-recalculating, non-repainting indicator working. I believe the historical bar calculations are right, but I can't test the realtime bar generation until I have realtime ticks.

Here's an example of it. The top HAS is mine, and the bottom is the original. I used the same "incorrect" calculation used in the original HAS so they're as comparable as possible. Any differences you see are (I think) due to the original HAS repainting, changing the history so it's different than you would have seen in realtime. I believe my HAS (the top one) shows the history correctly, as you would have seen it in realtime -- but again, I can't test that until I have live ticks.

The differences are pretty small -- maybe small enough that the original "repainting" version is just fine, especially for live trading. But if you want to do visual backtesting, this is more accurate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MTFHAS.GIF Size: 23 KB
Quoting pixelboy
Damn. I don't think I've ever seen so many attempts to alter a trading system when the thread is less than a week old! LOL

Even if you picked up the thread on page 1, you have only had a couple of days to trade it live and at a time when the market has been very difficult with all the Euro issues going on.

I really think people should just try and trade this as Udine set out instead of tweaking something that you have barely touched.

Just my two cents.

PB
If your comment is aimed at my post, the ATR idea comes from a succesful MTF trading strategy I started quite a while ago. I am not trying to tweak something which I have no experience of.
If your comment was a general one , I agree 100%
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
Quoting kolesar007
You must see bigest picture :nerd: of the market in the picture you see H4 of GU.Friday trouble area is in small blue square on the right side. you see that market was under 1.59 round number then there is resistance line bellow 1.59 and also there is 150 and 365 emas crossing below.
You see how many reasons not to go short
You're right, kolesar but, if one want to trade a mechanical system (like Udine's one) can't do every signal a second guessing...otherwise is not a mechanical system. If the outcome of a mechanical system depends upon too much trader's judgement......well, better trading each for his own....
A Mechanical System is made to overcome the "second gessing", all the "if", "but", "could", "may" and so on.... by the trader, helping him to stay disciplined, to control the greed and fear.
If we introduce concepts like ranging periods, demand & supply etc. We alter irremediably the whole system. In this kind of system trader must not judge, but only react to the rules: IF "A" THEN "B".
This system (I think it works) has been presented to us as Mechanical, with"SET IN STONE" rules (as Udine said) and to those we must obey...
Otherwise, better trading following each one experience & capacity to understand the market.

On the other hand, pivots, resistances, supports, round numbers can hold or can be broken.... so, if we don't trade there... we have at least a statistical 50% probability to be wrong in the long run....

I trust Udine and his hard work made to systematize the rules. Obiouvsly (as he said), I'll do my testing but only following the rules in first page. I won't care of midpivots, support & resistance areas, ranging market & so on, otherwise, I would have no reason to trade his system.
Quoting Gleneagles
Udine,

The inclusion of ATR on 15M charts (as a trading condition) is something that I would personally question and investigate.

The idea to use ATR as a precondition for trading does have merit if taking entries from 5M charts.

The traditional ATR 5/25 or 6/36 method used does have some inherent flaws because it may stop you from taking a potentially profitable trade and/or it may not prevent a potential loser.

I have found that setting a predetermined ATR level works far better.
The idea is to take trades during time of minimum trading...

Gleneagles,

thanks very much for your input, I'll dive into it

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
See you all tomorrow.

fresh and ready for green pips

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting Aztrader2
You're right, kolesar but, if one want to trade a mechanical system (like Udine's one) can't do every signal a second guessing...otherwise is not a mechanical system. If the outcome of a mechanical system depends upon too much trader's judgement......well, better trading each for his own....
A Mechanical System is made to overcome the "second gessing", all the "if", "but", "could", "may" and so on.... by the trader, helping him to stay disciplined, to control the greed and fear.
If we introduce concepts like ranging periods, demand...
this is very true, but one must still be very careful.

I demoed 4 pairs this week, and was in front of screen every single London session, open till close and i took every signal with 20 sl 10 tp and EA trailer my demo was on $500 with a %1 risk

I had over 80% accuracy of profitable trades
But end of week i was a loser
and balance finished on $412

SO although completely mechanical there may be some obvious things which can be avoided.
No, wasn't aimed at anyone. Just a general comment on the way the thread has exploded in a 'tweaky' direction!

Quoting Gleneagles
If your comment is aimed at my post, the ATR idea comes from a succesful MTF trading strategy I started quite a while ago. I am not trying to tweak something which I have no experience of.
If your comment was a general one , I agree 100%
Quoting deankenny21
this is very true, but one must still be very careful.

I demoed 4 pairs this week, and was in front of screen every single London session, open till close and i took every signal with 20 sl 10 tp and EA trailer my demo was on $500 with a %1 risk

I had over 80% accuracy of profitable trades
But end of week i was a loser
and balance finished on $412

SO although completely mechanical there may be some obvious things which can be avoided.
We need more data to know...... One week is not enough. As Udine said, we must'n blindly believe him (about results) but test the system and see if it works (but we must follow his rules)..
Maybe the previous one has been a bad week, and the next you'll have 100% win ( so, the average would be 90%..... )
The obvious thing to avoid are stated in rules: Atr green/room up & down green, notrade if not enough space before the pivots...
Quoting deankenny21
this is very true, but one must still be very careful.

I demoed 4 pairs this week, and was in front of screen every single London session, open till close and i took every signal with 20 sl 10 tp and EA trailer my demo was on $500 with a %1 risk

I had over 80% accuracy of profitable trades
But end of week i was a loser
and balance finished on $412

SO although completely mechanical there may be some obvious things which can be avoided.
do you have an estimate for your balance if you did not used the trailing EA?
Quoting iwontsmoke
do you have an estimate for your balance if you did not used the trailing EA?
i tried to go back and see if i would be up, i dont think i would be up but i wouldnt have lost as much i know that.

Theres not enough space once 5 pips up, im trying to get my own personal feel for it, but wil not share it as respect to UDINEs plan.
Quoting deankenny21
this is very true, but one must still be very careful.

I demoed 4 pairs this week, and was in front of screen every single London session, open till close and i took every signal with 20 sl 10 tp and EA trailer my demo was on $500 with a %1 risk

I had over 80% accuracy of profitable trades
But end of week i was a loser
and balance finished on $412

SO although completely mechanical there may be some obvious things which can be avoided.
deankenny21,

Well done following the system through last week. I am also finding the same, as others have also found, that the R:R can be a lot to handle. You need that high win percentage just to break even so if Udine is getting 90% that seems the only way to make a buck using this system. P.Dean had some words of wisdom the other day - these are more than likely the way to trade this system. I am going to try a new filter this week - trading in the direction of the semifor only. We'll see how that goes. Yes, I will miss heaps of signals but I will be trading in congruency with the overall trend.

PipM
Quoting PipMonster1
deankenny21,

Well done following the system through last week. I am also finding the same, as others have also found, that the R:R can be a lot to handle. You need that high win percentage just to break even so if Udine is getting 90% that seems the only way to make a buck using this system. P.Dean had some words of wisdom the other day - these are more than likely the way to trade this system. I am going to try a new filter this week - trading in the direction of the semifor only. We'll see how that goes. Yes, I will miss heaps of signals...
you cant trade in direction of semafor, its not used for that its used to pick previous highs and lows to determine HH HL etcetc, doing what you said will not alter very much as the semafor repaints heavily!! but its meant to repaint because you look at cmpleted semafors to judge pair direction only, do not trade off semafors lol
Quoting deankenny21
you cant trade in direction of semafor, its not used for that its used to pick previous highs and lows to determine HH HL etcetc, doing what you said will not alter very much as the semafor repaints heavily!! but its meant to repaint because you look at cmpleted semafors to judge pair direction only, do not trade off semafors lol
Correct deankenny21. Just judging the direction of the trade. If we have come off a lower low and made a higher low well let's take long signals only..... that's all I'm thinking about.

PipM
Quoting garyfritz
I couldn't resist...

I have a preliminary non-recalculating, non-repainting indicator working. I believe the historical bar calculations are right, but I can't test the realtime bar generation until I have realtime ticks.

Here's an example of it. The top HAS is mine, and the bottom is the original. I used the same "incorrect" calculation used in the original HAS so they're as comparable as possible. Any differences you see are (I think) due to the original HAS repainting, changing the history so it's different than you would have...
I would like to see your code if you don't mind. I wrote one that only does one bar at a time, live, but it will erase. (see below) When I tried to change the code to show all bars like yours, it looks exactly the same as the other.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screen4.JPG Size: 71 KB
I noticed in the code that RmUp and RmDn color was also based on the current OHLC bar so was only showing one or the other. Removed that. (see previous post for pic).
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MTF_HA_ADR.mq4   18 KB | 494 downloads
Thanks for the updates, eric
Quoting ericjschroed
I noticed in the code that RmUp and RmDn color was also based on the current OHLC bar so was only showing one or the other. Removed that. (see previous post for pic).
Eric,

thanks for the update

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting Aztrader2
You're right, kolesar but, if one want to trade a mechanical system (like Udine's one) can't do every signal a second guessing...otherwise is not a mechanical system. If the outcome of a mechanical system depends upon too much trader's judgement......well, better trading each for his own....
A Mechanical System is made to overcome the "second gessing", all the "if", "but", "could", "may" and so on.... by the trader, helping him to stay disciplined, to control the greed and fear.
If we introduce concepts like ranging periods, demand...

Aztrader2 you said CAN be broken..always is possibility to be broken but in this case has not been broken yet. Do you drive blindly on the street if somebody tells you and then third person just build the wall there .

Mechanical system even this that Udine gave us is very good but not perfect and they dont know where walls are (any way you look S and R are the basics of trading !!!) and if you want to real trade you must see bigger picture and prevent this things in the end its your monay.

I try many systems and always came to that. So now when I start trading always look back on higher TF and draw those lines and avoid them more than pivots. If this lines are broken its good point that market would go in the other direction.
this is a good system, i have no problem with the repainting issue..past values does not contribute earning money except providing good backtest results, manual trading is best suited for this...this is where you'll get to see the real result.
the invictus indicator is useful in determining current price movement and for me thats all i need. so far i augmented how i can use this system perfectly. Its not in the system where the flaw is but our hesitation to see its potential, its how we adapt with the limitation and turn it to our own advantage.

Thanks udine for this. so far gained +112 pips
Lets see where this one goes...

Pete

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