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System Test: Invictus V Fratelli 541 replies

Trading the Invictus method 4 replies

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Invictus

I'd like to talk a little about spread.

One of the problem with this RR ratio could be the spread: it regards as TP than SL & Trailing stop.

The spread on EU can be between 1 & 2 pips (2/3 pips GU) , and it may dramatically affect the results.

E.g. last friday I took a short trade on GU as on my previous post (2.5 spread for me), Price went down for 4.7 pips, so trailing stop didn't activate....and I lost 20 pips. If I had 2.2 spread that trade would have ended at BE.

I think there's a little difference between the two different outcomes... or

In other cases the trade could end in a full win (10 pips) or just 2/3 pips, always because of spread...

Not talking about slippage (I use pending orders so, theorically I should suffer less from it) wich can execute your market order 2 or 3 pips away.
So you need 10 + Your spread + Slippage = Total Pips move in your favour to win 10 !!!
And you need 20 - Your spread - Slippage = Total pips against to take a full 20 pips LOSS !!!

Not talking about variable spreads: Broker can modify the spread...etc.

Surely all this cases can heavily affect the final outcome of "our" system!! And I'd like to hear something about from Udine.... Are you sure bro, that 20/10 RR is the best in your study about this system?

Surely, all this cases can hevily affect wichever kind of backtesting !!!
Thats problem with pivots that are diferent due the time settings and almost similar between different broker feed.
I think that you dont have middle pivots on the chart.
We will see what happend next week and

PS: I always like that price break trough ranging zone and then look for enter the market.
Quoting kolesar007
Thats problem with pivots that are diferent due the time settings and almost similar between different broker feed.
I think that you dont have middle pivots on the chart.
We will see what happend next week and

PS: I always like that price break trough ranging zone and then look for enter the market.
I fully agree about the ranging zone (I was aware of that, but nobody speaked about avoiding it before fiday..... )

Regardin' pivots, i didn't saw middle pivots in Udine's charts in first pages.... He said only to avoid trades < 10 pips away from the main pivots ( I've added main weekly & Montly pivots)
If we look at all that Pivots, Middle Pivots, Camarilla, Murray Math, Last day Fibo & Round Numbers.... we'll never take a trade !!!

Oh My God... we're just beggin' for 10 pips a trade.....
Quoting Aztrader2
If we look at all that Pivots, Middle Pivots, Camarilla, Murray Math, Fibonacci & Round Numbers.... we'll never take a trade !!!

Oh My God... we're just beggin' for 10 pips a trade.....
Good point.
Quoting hanover
You can not use sizing variations to overcome an RR hurdle. All sizing variations do is redistribute win and loss amounts.

Anyway, I am done following this thread. It is moving too fast for me to keep up.

Good luck, Udine, I hope this proves successful for you, and everybody else who is following it.

Hanover,

thanks and green pips.

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting garyfritz
*phew* !! I finally worked my way through all 941 posts.

I'm new to MT4, but I've done system development in Tradestation for more than 12 years. Most of the same concepts apply here.

I agree with Precisiontra's concerns about repainting indicators. I also think several people's point that "by the time it repaints, we're already out of the trade" may also be very valid, at least most of the time. (Of course, the times it doesn't work are the ones that kill you...)

It would be a Very Good Thing if you could look at a chart and see...

Garyfritz,

I know where you are come from, but as you know you have seen my trades when I was demo trading, with all the details. I will not show this information here.

I have spend durin those three months of demo trading to set my rules in stone. If people are willing to to do the work fine, if not...

If you want to be a professional in this business, you have to analyze all details for yourself, NEVER just blindly accept what somebody else is saying

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting Aztrader2
I'd like to talk a little about spread.

One of the problem with this RR ratio could be the spread: it regards as TP than SL & Trailing stop.

The spread on EU can be between 1 & 2 pips (2/3 pips GU) , and it may dramatically affect the results.

E.g. last friday I took a short trade on GU as on my previous post (2.5 spread for me), Price went down for 4.7 pips, so trailing stop didn't activate....and I lost 20 pips. If I had 2.2 spread that trade would have ended at BE.

I think there's a little difference between the two different outcomes......
I have been trading 5-15 minutes for some time and i also checked recent possible entry points. i can say that on eur/usd generally it is safe and succesful break outs gets 10 pips+spread. of course lower the spread safer. but this is an issue for all scalping strategies.
Quoting zznbrm
I have been through this multiple times. So listen to me very, very carefully:

There is nothing wrong with repainting/MTF indicators when trading live and looking at the current bar for trading decision. This is how Udine is using the MTF HA indicator. OK? I repeat...NOTHING WRONG WITH IT!!!

No comment has been made about the profitability of the system because "repainting" indicators are used. Well, I know I have not made any such comments.

The issue that precisiontra brought up (and that anyone with even a basic knowledge of indicators...

You said it well and DONT delete any posts please

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting P.Dean
Hi everyone,

Folks the main issue with this trading style is not the repainting or not repainting or else.. its about how to filter the valid signals when PA jams up.. no matter how and how much it jams up (range) still the atr or whatever else tool will show somewhat of momentum within that range to get off valid signal.. those are the signals that need to be reject even if it produces a few breakout winners here and there.. at best it produces 50/50 in such zone.. we are not after 50% we are after Iron clad trades 80+% accuracy to make a few...


P.Dean,

well said: "

With the original lay down of udine’s indies and clear understanding of HH.LH trend following, one would be more than fine and on his way to safe but solid bank roll."

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting ukcool
Good point.
Do you ever heard that trading is simple business
If this is true all of us will be millionare.
guys,

be patient, the markets will show us the next few days. I know I will be banking as I have been doing for a long time.

It is important not to overthink the process, but analyze for yourself each detail of this system. It is the only way to get confidence in the system.

By the way: 80 % is you only 20 % is the system, to be successful in forex. I tried to make INVICTUS as rule based as possible to help me with the 80 %


Green pips

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
In my 5th post I have mentioned the 2 points of discussion I expected

they have been discussed in great lentgh. It is all fine by me, as I dont need to be convinced.

I only ask that YOU and only YOU see for yourself if it works for you, if not, no harm done and move on.

My intention was just to show the way I trade with great success, as I think the market is big enough for all of us.

I work full time, trade and have a thread, all this keeps me more than busy. Having said that, if my work or trading suffers, I will stop posting as all has been said.

I will not leave, but I will not start to defend me against negativism, as I dont want to waist time with that.

Green pips

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
Quoting kolesar007
Do you ever heard that trading is simple business
If this is true all of us will be millionare.
Well I am getting there, so I do not need to hear, I know.

“The evolution of knowledge is towards simplicity, not complexity.”
Quoting Aztrader2
I fully agree about the ranging zone (I was aware of that, but nobody speaked about avoiding it before fiday..... )

Regardin' pivots, i didn't saw middle pivots in Udine's charts in first pages.... He said only to avoid trades < 10 pips away from the main pivots ( I've added main weekly & Montly pivots)
If we look at all that Pivots, Middle Pivots, Camarilla, Murray Math, Last day Fibo & Round Numbers.... we'll never take a trade !!!

Oh My God... we're just beggin' for 10 pips a trade.....
You must see bigest picture :nerd: of the market in the picture you see H4 of GU.Friday trouble area is in small blue square on the right side. you see that market was under 1.59 round number then there is resistance line bellow 1.59 and also there is 150 and 365 emas crossing below.
You see how many reasons not to go short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_H4.png Size: 16 KB
Pls what does the value in front of ROOM up and down stand for? It does change but do we needs to take it into consideration or just the color change alone? Thanks
"Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events
Quoting adeforex
Pls what does the value in front of ROOM up and down stand for? It does change but do we needs to take it into consideration or just the color change alone? Thanks
lol you answered your own question it means exactly what u said, ROOM UP means how much ROOM UP there is left and vice versa for ROOM DOWN
I for one will continue to use the system as laid out by Udine, "bad" R:R, "repainting," and all. What more could we ask for? Why concern ourselves so much with backtesting? This method has already been forward tested by Udine for some time now with great success.

But we have to give it more than two or three days before getting discouraged. Give it a few weeks. Let the law of averages kick in and see what our average daily returns are.

Some days may be very discouraging but we must forge ahead, blah, blah, blah.

Good luck folks!
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
Quoting ukcool
Well I am getting there, so I do not need to hear, I know.

“The evolution of knowledge is towards simplicity, not complexity.”

You have hit the nail on the head......trading is perceived to be a VERY complex and VERY difficult endeavor. The human mind is programmed to look for a complex solution when the problem is perceived to be complex, often overlooking the obvious ,very simple solution
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
Udine,

The inclusion of ATR on 15M charts (as a trading condition) is something that I would personally question and investigate.

The idea to use ATR as a precondition for trading does have merit if taking entries from 5M charts.

The traditional ATR 5/25 or 6/36 method used does have some inherent flaws because it may stop you from taking a potentially profitable trade and/or it may not prevent a potential loser.

I have found that setting a predetermined ATR level works far better.
The idea is to take trades during time of minimum trading activity as measured by the trading range of the candles of the TF you are trading on.

Typically , the size of the candles will grow as market activity picks up and obviously the opposite holds true ( smaller candles during "quiet periods)

The crossover or OK TO TRADE signal normally happens close to Frankfurt open when trading activities start to pick up. This is when the 5 period ATR cross over 25 period ATR.

HOWEVER......

As the trading day progresses after FF and LDN the 25 period ATR will also increase ( at a slower pace) because it is a longer term ATR. The danger missing out on potentially profitable trades could start early NY session when the longer term ATR (25) has grown quite a bit and any small change in trading activities could see the ATR 5 drop below ATR 25 even though there is enough momentum/activity in the market to drive PA to your TP level.

Look at the chart below as an illustration, set up ATR 5/25 in the same window or 6/36 and make a decision on whether it is an essential part of the trading conditions.

BTW Green line is ATR 5 and Red line is ATR 25
Edit: Time on charts GMT (0)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Nov. 13 21.24.jpg Size: 172 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
Damn. I don't think I've ever seen so many attempts to alter a trading system when the thread is less than a week old! LOL

Even if you picked up the thread on page 1, you have only had a couple of days to trade it live and at a time when the market has been very difficult with all the Euro issues going on.

I really think people should just try and trade this as Udine set out instead of tweaking something that you have barely touched.

Just my two cents.

PB
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