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System Test: Invictus V Fratelli 541 replies

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Invictus

  • #861
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:25am Nov 12, 2011 1:25am
Quoting Shanexx
what is the use of the semafor.

Just to give you a quick visual aid for HH/LH/LL/HL nothing more

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #862
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:26am Nov 12, 2011 1:26am
Quoting Shanexx
what is the use of the semafor.
Do you ever heared of HH HL and souch things .. this is basics of trading. Search FF for semaphore trading and you findout.
  • #863
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:27am Nov 12, 2011 1:27am
Quoting Shanexx
what is the use of the semafor.
Please read the thread. It was answered more than once
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #864
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:32am Nov 12, 2011 1:32am
Quoting Udine
there have been traders who posted their charts where you could see the arrows of the entry and exit... so what bogus trades.

Thanks and see you on monday

Udine


i don't disagree with you that some of the trade signals illustrated could be good; but you never know if these arrows are added later based on the repainted static charts histogram, and not added dynamically in real-time.

If these arrows are added in real-time and do not change as histogram changes colors, then that will be good. I just want to let people know that all trade signals (or arrows) generated based on the static history charts in hind-sight are not accurate. Some may be good, if the trend/momentum is strong enough and the histogram in 1-hour and 4-hour HA did not change color during the entire 1-hour or 4-hour period; but most of the time the market is choppy and ranging, the histogram color of 1-hour and 4-hour are changing like a Christmas tree during that 1-hour or 4-hour time span, then the signal generated by hind-sight static chart are invalid. Unfortunately, the market is choppy and ranging more than 70% of the time, and by no means that the 1-hour or 4-hour histogram did not change color on a 15-minute charts most of the time.

So, bottom line, please post real-time charts when the trade is entered either in Demo or Live. Do not bother to post any charts that are repainted in the 1-hour or 4-hour histogram.

So, to trade this system, you have to find a very trending day, and the 1-hour and 4-hour trend/momentum stay very stable (red or green). Then again, if you know this is a trending day, then you can use any strategy to trade. Two moving average cross-overs will do a fine job too.

I hope I got my point cleared. No more arguing. Just posting real-time charts when you entered a trade, everybody will be happy and we can all see the real performance of this system in real time environment, not in back-test environment. Thanks for considering.
  • #865
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:36am Nov 12, 2011 1:36am
Quoting deankenny21
i only take break visually then enter at market with mouse click as soon as i see break, becasue with spread etc and stuff, if u have a pending order it might fill u way before it even breaks, so no chance i will ever use pending orders for this type of trading.

Valid point. I will follow this. Thanks
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #866
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:45am Nov 12, 2011 1:45am
Hello,

I am not trying to argue with any one of you. I do agree with most of your comments.

The only thing that bothers me is people posting trade signals using a hind-sight static chart showing how great the system is. You all know these signals are added after all the histogram are repainted, and the signal generated by repainted histogram are not accurate at all in a ranging day.

So, no more further discussion on this repaint issues. Just show people the real-time chart when the trade is entered. Or using some special strategy tester to forward testing this system in real-time.

I can tell you now this system will not perform at all in a ranging market if just obey all the rules on the first page. In a trending market, this system is a winner; but again, all trend-following systems will be winners in a trending market, if only you know when the trend momentum is coming when it is developing.

Thanks again for all your comments. Be honest with you, I agree with most of your comments. Thanks.
  • #867
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:46am Nov 12, 2011 1:46am
Quoting precisiontra
i don't disagree with you that some of the trade signals illustrated could be good; but you never know if these arrows are added later based on the repainted static charts histogram, and not added dynamically in real-time.

If these arrows are added in real-time and do not change as histogram changes colors, then that will be good. I just want to let people know that all trade signals (or arrows) generated based on the static history charts in hind-sight are not accurate. Some may be good, if the trend/momentum is strong enough and the histogram...

My famous last words on this:


INVICTUS has its rules, demo according to those rules next week, you like it fine, you dont, nothing lost.

You post as if the people here are stupid, they will check for themselves. if it works they might trade otherwise look for something else.

You have made your point.

Trading is a lot like driving, sometimes you look in the mirror to see what was there, but in order to get ahead you need to look forward and adjust your actions to what is happening, just like life

BTW how is it possible that I get the feeling you did not demo this according to the rules??? otherwise you would have noticed that there are plenty potential set ups, but actually less real trades.

Bye

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #868
  • Nov 12, 2011 2:03am Nov 12, 2011 2:03am
I'm off groceries are needed.

Green pips

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #869
  • Edited 2:33am Nov 12, 2011 2:22am | Edited 2:33am
Have you ever heard of the "Project Ultra - True Other Time Frame Indicators" here on FF.com?

Several popular indicators have been converted to an indicator that show their real behavior of higher TF on lower TF.

So this would remove the repainting issue and also hopefully the pain that comes with that.

But unfortunatley, there is no Ultra HAS and the indicators are only available as ex4. I will see what I can do next week,
when my computer is back from service.

here's the link to Project Ultra:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=299608
  • #870
  • Nov 12, 2011 2:28am Nov 12, 2011 2:28am
Quoting chjungen
Have you ever heard of the "Project Ultra - True Other Time Frame Indicators" here on FF.com?

Several popular indicators have been converted to an indicator that their real behavior of higher TF on lower TF.

So this would remove the repainting issue and also hopefully the pain that comes with that.

But unfortunatley, there is no Ultra HAS and the indicators are only available as ex4. I will see what I can do next week,
when my computer is back from service.

here's the link to Project Ultra:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=299608...

Wow, Thanks. That is a great thread. I did not realize somebody has thought of this MTF stuff already. I guess he must have used a similar algorithm as mine to do all these ultra projects. Great information for all to know.

Thanks again.
  • #871
  • Nov 12, 2011 2:34am Nov 12, 2011 2:34am
Quoting precisiontra
Wow, Thanks. That is a great thread. I did not realize somebody has thought of this MTF stuff already. I guess he must have used a similar algorithm as mine to do all these ultra projects. Great information for all to know.

Thanks again.


EDIT: By the way, just to let you know that all of my simulated MTF indicators mentioned in the previous posts are originally derived from the HAS smoothed indicator and some other MTF trend/momentum indicators without stepping effect and repainting issues. I guess my simulated MTF indicators are ahead of his thread by 6 months. But again, he may have some working ultra MTF indicators working long before his thread.
  • #872
  • Nov 12, 2011 3:28am Nov 12, 2011 3:28am
Quoting precisiontra
EDIT: By the way, just to let you know that all of my simulated MTF indicators mentioned in the previous posts are originally derived from the HAS smoothed indicator and some other MTF trend/momentum indicators without stepping effect and repainting issues. I guess my simulated MTF indicators are ahead of his thread by 6 months. But again, he may have some working ultra MTF indicators working long before his thread.
Precisiontra,

you are welcome to post or start a thread with your indies, I will be glad to test them out.

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #873
  • Nov 12, 2011 3:33am Nov 12, 2011 3:33am
Quoting precisiontra
Okay. I do not want to argue with you on this point again. We have discussed enough on this.

But, one problem for me is that people keep posting static hind-sight charts to show their trade signals, which did not exist in real-time. That bothers me a lot. I do not disagree with your comments and Harry's, but showing people static hind-sight charts for trade example is not wise. These hind-sight trade signals did bot exist in real-time. Why show these mis-leading signals as example?

If you entered a new live trade based on the current...
I think we have understood enough what you wanted to point out....
That's why we are looking forward to see if the winning rate is so high as Udine said. And that's why I always post charts in real time....

The biggest problem for me could be the RR ratio, but the profitability of a system comes from RR ratio & % winning ratio.
With this system we nead at least 70% winning ratio... Udine said he has 90%
Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's a liar.... who knows?
Only time will tell if the system works in the long run....

We are all looking for a good and profitable system in the long run, but I think nobody has found jet.... Otherwise, nobody would waste his "precious" time here in FF.

If you have developed such a system, please open your thread and let's know how an Holy Grail it is... If you don't, you're just one of thousands people who has nothing better to do than go in everyone's thread just to say that system doesn't work....
  • #874
  • Nov 12, 2011 3:56am Nov 12, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Udine
Precisiontra,

you are welcome to post or start a thread with your indies, I will be glad to test them out.

Udine
I second this. I'd be keen to try them out too.

  • #875
  • Nov 12, 2011 3:57am Nov 12, 2011 3:57am
Quoting Aztrader2
I think we have understood enough what you wanted to point out....
That's why we are looking forward to see if the winning rate is so high as Udine said. And that's why I always post charts in real time....

The biggest problem for me could be the RR ratio, but the profitability of a system comes from RR ratio & % winning ratio.
With this system we nead at least 70% winning ratio... Udine said he has 90%
Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's a liar.... who knows?
Only time will tell if the system works in the long run....

We are all looking...
Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's a liar.... who knows?

I do

Crazy... yup, for posting all this, could have kept it for myself.
Liar.. you will find out when the markets are open

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #876
  • Nov 12, 2011 3:59am Nov 12, 2011 3:59am
Quoting tritan
I second this. I'd be keen to try them out too.


Hi mate,

how is life ??

are you living near the Glenmorangie territory??

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #877
  • Nov 12, 2011 4:04am Nov 12, 2011 4:04am
familiy time.

MAybe I'll drop in tomorrow otherwise great weekend to all.

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #878
  • Edited 4:29am Nov 12, 2011 4:05am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting Aztrader2
I think we have understood enough what you wanted to point out....
That's why we are looking forward to see if the winning rate is so high as Udine said. And that's why I always post charts in real time....

The biggest problem for me could be the RR ratio, but the profitability of a system comes from RR ratio & % winning ratio.
With this system we nead at least 70% winning ratio... Udine said he has 90%
Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's a liar.... who knows?
Only time will tell if the system works in the long run....

We are...

Hello,

90% winning rate is very possible with two repainting indicators, one repaints 4 bars and one repaints up to 16 bars.

If I tell you there is a magic holy-grail indicator called "semafor" which will pin-point the exact top and bottom, and if you follow the "semafor" indicator to long and short the market, you will have a winning rate of 99%. Sure that is very true when the magic holy grail "semafor" indicator is loaded onto a new chart. It pinpoints every major and minor turning points at exactly the right position and you started to dream about your next BMW.

But I forgot to tell you that the magic holy-grail "semafor" indicator repaints in real-time up to 2-3 bars, and in a hind-sight static charts it shows the exact turning points with 100% accuracy. So, can I tell you that I have a system with a winning rate of 99% by showing you all the charts you wanted with a single holy-grail "semafor" indicator loaded onto them. If the "semafor" indicator on a static hind-sight chart can show you a winning rate of 99%, then why nobody trade the holy-grail "semafor" indicator? It has a winning rate of almost 100% on all the static charts you wanted to test with in hind-sight charts. I guess you got the idea. Because the so called holy-grail "semafor" indicator repaints, which means it changes its position several times in real-time before it fixed in a position which pin-points the exact major and turning points. Hey, people, The "semafor" indicator only repaint the previous 2-3 bars only with 99% wining rate in hind-sight, which is much better than this system which can repaint up to 16 bars with 90% wining rate in hind-sight. Should we start a new thread called no-loss holy-grail trading system using repaint "semafor" indicator?

Does this answer your question of where that 90% wining rate coming from for this strategy? Should I explain more on this subject? Because he does not understand these signals are generated using two repainting MTF indicators which is much worse than the "Semafor" indicator. Get it?

EDIT: We can not call him a liar, because he does not understand the repaint nature of the MTF indicators. at lease 50% of his wining trades that counted as 90% wining rate are bogus based on repainted 1-hour and 4-hour histogram indicator (whcih is much worse than the simple Semafor), and will not occur in real-time charts. Another 50% of the bad trades in real-time will not show up on the hind-sight static charts. So after all this strategy is a losing system. A 50% coin toss strategy and with such a bad R-R, this is a bad strategy in the long run. In a ranging market, it will eat you alive and blow up your account in no-time. Hope you understand where the 90% wining rate coming from. That's all caused by the repainting MTF indicator illusion. All a dream. You might be much better to trade the "semafor" indicator with a slightly higher wining edge than this one in my opinion in a ranging market. In a trending market, all trend-following strategies will be winners.
  • #879
  • Nov 12, 2011 4:05am Nov 12, 2011 4:05am
Quoting Udine
Hi mate,

how is life ??

are you living near the Glenmorangie territory??

Udine
Hey Mate,

Life is good. Its the weekend so time to chill....... and get through this frickin' thread lol. Every time I come back to read it another 15 or so pages have been added ha ha As someone said earlier this must be a FF record. Just shows what a great thread it is. Kudos Udine

I am miles from the Glenmorangie area (unfortunately ). Beautiful part of the world.

How's you? Good trading weeks I see.

G
  • #880
  • Nov 12, 2011 4:10am Nov 12, 2011 4:10am
Hi Precisiontra - don't get too upset about people posting the hindsight charts. I understand it is frustrating to see 'potential' rather than live trades, but it's not worth getting annoyed about. I went down that route with the Stairsteps thread where the OP posted loads of charts showing huge gains which were in no way possible to trade.

One thing I have learned about this game is that all back testing, theories and speculation is pointless. The ONLY thing that counts is live trading. The only possible way you can find out if a system works is to trade it in demo, but even better live. I've seen loads of systems that everyone else seems to make a fortune trading which simply don't ever work for me. THV being one of them. Haven't looked at it for ages, but I couldn't earn a pip from that! And I know it's a great system, just not for me.

You have to test systems yourself live. No shortcuts. You simply can't use other people's examples and results, so arguing about them will just push up your blood pressure! Give it a go for a couple of days next week and see if it clicks with you. If not maybe you can pull some ideas out of it and merge them into a system that works better for you.

It would be good to see you contributing here as you obviously have a lot of experience with MTF strategies.

Happy trading next week.

PB


Quoting precisiontra
Hello,

I am not trying to argue with any one of you. I do agree with most of your comments.

The only thing that bothers me is people posting trade signals using a hind-sight static chart showing how great the system is. You all know these signals are added after all the histogram are repainted, and the signal generated by repainted histogram are not accurate at all in a ranging day.

So, no more further discussion on this repaint issues. Just show people the real-time chart when the trade is entered. Or using some special strategy tester...
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