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System Test: Invictus V Fratelli 541 replies

Trading the Invictus method 4 replies

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Invictus

  • #821
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:21pm Nov 11, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting Udine
no problem, but I will talk only %

Udine
Outstanding, it is all about the % and consistency, thank you and looking forward to you weekly summaries.
  • #822
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:30pm Nov 11, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting iwontsmoke
I think hard stop and trailing stop is the soft spot of this system. Closing a trade should be decided based on the price action on lower time frame like 1M. of course it will be very subjective and it may cause more harm than benefit.
In the first page Udine said he's made all the studies about TP/SL, most profitable hours and kind of trades. He stated for 90% winners.
The only thing we can do is try to follow his rules and see what happens.....
  • #823
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:47pm Nov 11, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Udine
I will post my weekly update as requested, as I will not be trading anymore today.

week 45: + 23.1 % - average 4.6 % per day
week 44: + 28.9 % - average 5.8 % per day

since start +52.0 % - average 5.2 % per day

Remember live trading

Udine
Very nice! Does is mean that you have traded this system fro 45 weeks?
Thank you for the inspiration
  • #824
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:55pm Nov 11, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting Aztrader2
In the first page Udine said he's made all the studies about TP/SL, most profitable hours and kind of trades. He stated for 90% winners.
The only thing we can do is try to follow his rules and see what happens.....
dont get me wrong i am not trying to change anything. as i said in my post trying to change may cause more harm than benefit.
  • #825
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:55pm Nov 11, 2011 4:55pm
No, it means week 45 of this year.

Quoting rac
Very nice! Does is mean that you have traded this system fro 45 weeks?
Thank you for the inspiration
  • #826
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:57pm Nov 11, 2011 4:57pm
Eric,
Would there be any chance of showing past arrows, or at least an option to show them, so that we can do a visual backtest.
Thanks 236dave


Quoting ericjschroed
Can everyone PLEASE wait until I get finished fixing the MTF HA ADR indicator this weekend before applying bandages to a car held together with wires and glue? Yes, if you can code, go ahead but please don't post any more modifications until address all the issues and questions and then if you want to hack it, go ahead. I do feel a little responsible since I slapped together the first one. Here are the things I am addressing (question marks are questionable):

NOTE: requires Heiken Ashi.ex4
clean up code
fix arrows (distance)
allow for 4 and 5...
  • #827
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:01pm Nov 11, 2011 5:01pm
Was going to backtest Invictus over the weekend using strategy tester but unfortunately the invictus mtf is wildly inaccurate in the tester. Any thoughts as to why?

Pete
  • #828
  • Edited 6:57pm Nov 11, 2011 6:24pm | Edited 6:57pm
Quoting Udine


2. no the MTF has bars do NOT repaint: we look at higher timeframes on the 15M, this means that the 1H consists of 4 15m bars and the 4 hour of 16 15M bars, so they might change color, this is NOT repainting!
So that has been dealt with

　
I have just finished the first two pages of this thread, and I found a major flaw of this methodology. Maybe somedody else already pointed it out in the later page, or may be not. either way I have to point out that, using a multi-time frame indicator like HA to eyeball the past bars is a no-no, because the 4 hour histogram will change color for the entire 16 15-minute bars during its formation in real-time. But if you loaded in a new chart, the 4-hour histogram (all 16 bars) will stay with the same color as the close of the 4-hour bar.

So, on the existing history chart, you do not see the real-time 16-bar color changing effect, and in reality, the 4 hour history is non-stable in real time until it closes.

Assume, the first 15 4-hour histogram bar is red color in real-time, and in the last 15 minute before the close of the 4-hour histogram bar, the price went up 100 pip, and suddenly the 4-hour close would turn Green, and all 16 previous 4-hour histogram bar would all turn Green at the last 15-minute.

In real-time, all of the long signals in the first 15-bars of 4- hiur histogram are bogus, because the 4-hour history just turned Green at the last minute. But, back-testing in hind-sight from the price history, all these 16-bar 4-hour histogram are Green, and you have no idea that the previous 15 bars are red, and all 16-bars turns Green at the last minute of the 4-hour close.

Therefore, from a past price chart, everything looks perfect, but in fact in real-time, all 1-hour and 4-hour histogram are non-stable until it closes, but from the history price bars everything is static, all 1-hour and 4-hour bars are static and shows the closing color. But in reality, that closing color is not stable (turning green or red) during the formation of the 1-hour and 4-hour bars. So, if you think you will be a millionair using this method, please take a look at the dynamic chart in real-time, and the HA alignment seldom occurs and even when it occurs, the move is already too far and it is too late to enter. Because the 4-histogram may all turn from red to green at the last minute before the close. But in hind-sight, from a history static chart, you see all 16 bar of that 4-hour histogram all turns green from the first bar. This is like a repainting in a lower time-frame. Because in static hind-sight charts, all 16-bar are static and all green; but in real-time the first 15-bars are RED and all 16 bars did not change its color from RED to Green until the last minute.

I do not know if I made myself clear on this multi-time frame recalculation issue. This subject has come up zillions of time in all of the Multi-time frame related strategies. Please take a look at the MTF TRIX thread etc.

If somebody else already pointed this out, then plesse forget this explanation. I do not have the time to read all posts, because this strategy is based on a faulty MTF indicator, which repaint (or recalculate) in the lower time frame chart. None of the history hind-sight charts posted by the author is valid, because you only see the the closing bar of the 1-hour or 4-hour histogram, and the dynamic changing color (recalculate or repainting before the close) nature of the MTF indicator can't be observed on a static charts in hind-sight, all you see is a 1-hour and 4-hour repaints 4 and 16 bars based on the closing price of the corresponding time frame. You will not see the dynamic color changing effect which will only observed in real-time. All eyeball backtesting of MTF indicators are flawed because you can only see the repainted (recaculated closing price) histogram in a static chart..

There are so many week-end millionnairs that are created just because of this MTF illusion in a hind-sight static back-testing charts. Everything looks perfect in a static charts when the 4-hour histogram repaints the previous 16 bars. This is not just repaint 2-3 bars as most of repainters do, this is repainting 16 previous bars. That's repainting all 4-hour worth of the histogram, and can you trust any trading signals that generated before the closing of the 4-hour histogram?

Can anybody trade a system based on a repainting 4 bars for 1-hour histogram, and repainting 16 bars for a 4-hour histogram. Bad strategy !!! Period. But this strategy is based on both higher time-frames repainting natures in a lower time-frame trading signals. All signals generated from a hind-sight static charts from this strategy are invalid. Faulty logic, Faulty assumptions, and misleading static chart signals.


EDIT: Even the indicator itself is not repainting; but recalculating the higher-time frame indicators during the formation of the higher time-frame bar, and displayed it on a lower time-frame charts is just like repainting in a lower-time frame charts from a static chart point of view. In real-time, the dynamics of the recalculating of higher time-frame formation can be seen as a bunch of bars changing color in unison in a lower time-frame. It is recalculating the indicator in a high-time frame but is is displayed in a lower time-frame as repainting. All simple implementation of MTF indicators have this same problem, unless some fancy algorithm with some non-linear interpolation calculations are added to not repaint in a lower time-frame. Then again, it is not a true MTF indicators any longer. Trade off. No free lunch !!!
  • #829
  • Nov 11, 2011 6:58pm Nov 11, 2011 6:58pm
The repainting MTF indicator does not mean that the system won't work.
It may work fine.

The problem is you can't look back on a chart and know whether it has been profitable or not. It cannot be backtested.
  • #830
  • Edited 7:53pm Nov 11, 2011 7:05pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting billbss
The repainting MTF indicator does not mean that the system won't work.
It may work fine.

The problem is you can't look back on a chart and know whether it has been profitable or not. It cannot be backtested.


I 100% agree with your assessment; but the author has posted some very mis-leading hind-sight static charts in the first two pages for the signal generation. And everybody got so excited with these faulty back-test signals from hind-sight static charts.

There are complete different strategies based on the MTF indicators like THV, MTF TRIX etc, and they have added some extra very sophisticated indicators to remedy the MTF weakness. Sure, MTF based strategies can be very profitable, but not in the form of this strategy. This strategy is just like any new comers have just found a holy-Grail in a simple MTF based faulty strategy and dreaming the next BMW and maybe an island. ;-)

EDIT: Wow, I just realized that his thread only existed for 3 days, and is already full of 55 pages long and got a 5-star
rating. This must be a record in FF. WOW !! Sorry for spoiling the party. Just point out the reality of Forex Trading. If it is this simple, then who needs to study and work hard as lawyers, doctors, engineers, etc. Trading Forex successfully requires years of paper trading and mind tunning. It is not easy. Please do not be fooled by any text-book like hind-sight cherry picking charts making you to believe that it is so easy and dream your next BMW. Be very carefu out therel, you are up against the very best in the business with deep pockets with Super-Computer computing power.
  • #831
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:20pm Nov 11, 2011 8:20pm
Hello precisiontra,


The repainting issue has already been told by Udine in post #5. Ultimately it is the performance which counts, Till now it has been satisfactory. Rest time will tell.

Diamonds do exist in South Africa. Everybody knows it. But only few could tap them and make business.
  • #832
  • Edited 8:41pm Nov 11, 2011 8:31pm | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting simplecoders
Hello precisiontra,


The repainting issue has already been told by Udine in post #5. Ultimately it is the performance which counts, Till now it has been satisfactory. Rest time will tell.

Diamonds do exist in South Africa. Everybody knows it. But only few could tap them and make business.

Hello friend,

Here is what he said in post #5:
================================================
2. no the MTF has bars do NOT repaint: we look at higher timeframes on the 15M, this means that the 1H consists of 4 15m bars and the 4 hour of 16 15M bars, so they might change color, this is NOT repainting!
So that has been dealt with
==========================================

Yes, if he knows that they will changing color, then why all the example trades in the hind-sight charts in the first few pages are based on color-changing 4-hour and 1-hour repainting indicators.

I guess you still do not understand what I wanted to convey in the previous two posts. Please re-read again. Recalculating the higher time-frame indicator and displayed in a lower time-frame charts is like repainting 16-bars for 4-hour MTF indicators. it is useless to generate any trading signals from a repainting indicator that repaints 16-bars. All the perfect example trade signals in the first few pages are generated using the static repainting MTF indicators, so all the perfect trade signals showed in all his static charts are invalid. These signals are non-existing in the real-time dynamic charts. Do you understand? They are dreams. Because it repaints 16 bars. It is based on an indicators that repaints the previous 16 bars. Do you understand what a recalculate and repaint means in the MTF terminology?
  • #833
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:42pm Nov 11, 2011 8:42pm
I do know precisiontra, what recalculation and repaint mean . I have been trading for the last 5 years.

I told in my post that it is the performance which counts. Udine has demoed it from July till October. Many people are testing it on demo and also trading live. If the strategy does not work then it should prove in the days to come. Let us wait and watch.


Quoting precisiontra
Hello friend,

Here is what he said in post #5:
================================================
2. no the MTF has bars do NOT repaint: we look at higher timeframes on the 15M, this means that the 1H consists of 4 15m bars and the 4 hour of 16 15M bars, so they might change color, this is NOT repainting!
So that has been dealt with
==========================================

Yes, if he knows that they will changing color, then why all the example trades in the hind-sight charts in the first few pages are based on color-changing 4-hour and 1-hour...
  • #834
  • Edited 9:03pm Nov 11, 2011 8:50pm | Edited 9:03pm
Quoting simplecoders
I do know precisiontra, what recalculation and repaint mean . I have been trading for the last 5 years.

I told in my post that it is the performance which counts. Udine has demoed it from July till October. Many people are testing it on demo and also trading live. If the strategy does not work then it should prove in the days to come. Let us wait and watch.


I believe all the previous performance showed so far are based on the hind-sight static eyeball back-testing just like all the example trade signals illustrated in all the previous posts. They are non-existing in a real-time dynamic chart. There are maybe a few, but most of the signals that are generated from a repaint (up to 16-bars) indicator are dreams. There are tons of $99 advertised EAs out there, who all claimed can make 100% in a month, and all these EAs will do is to blow up your account.

People will not even use a repaint indicator that repaint up to 3-bars. And this one repaints 4-bar and 16-bars. How can you trust the signal? May be it is better for you to trust these $99 dollars EA out there and dream your next BMW.

EDIT: To give you an example. If in real-time you see a green bar in the 1-hour histogram and a green bar in the 4-hour histogram, can you generate trade signals based on that fact? nope. absolutely not. Because you never know may be in the next few minutes all these green bars in the 1-hour histogram and 4-hour histogram will be changing to RED bars. These Green bars are temperary, because the 1-hour price bar and 4-hour price are not closing yet, the MTF indicator will keep recalculating and changing the color from red to green, and back to red until the 1-hour price bar and 4-hour price bar are closed, which may be 15 bars in the future. So all of the previous 15 bars of the 4-hour histogram are non-usable, because they may all change color in the last minute before the closing the price bar. How can you generate trade signals from these constant color-changing histogram bars in 1-hour and 4-hour indicators. If this is not repaint? I don't know what is this?
  • #835
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:09pm Nov 11, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting ericjschroed
Is that Nov 11 or 11 Nov? Only once a month do the US and UK agree on the date!
I'm in Italy so 11th November

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #836
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:10pm Nov 11, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting rac
Very nice! Does is mean that you have traded this system fro 45 weeks?
Thank you for the inspiration
45 is this week
44 was last week

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #837
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:16pm Nov 11, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting precisiontra
I have just finished the first two pages of this thread, and I found a major flaw of this methodology. Maybe somedody else already pointed it out in the later page, or may be not. either way I have to point out that, using a multi-time frame indicator like HA to eyeball the past bars is a no-no, because the 4 hour histogram will change color for the entire 16 15-minute bars during its formation in real-time. But if you loaded in a new chart, the 4-hour histogram (all 16 bars) will stay with the same color as the close of the 4-hour bar.

So, on...

Precisiontra,

thanks for your input.

I have mentioned the recalculating of the MTF. which does NOT bother me. If you say this system does not work for you, no problem.

My account since July is telling me otherwise and the last two week live have confirmed me.

so please, if it doesn't works according to you, don't tell my account

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #838
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:23pm Nov 11, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting Udine
Precisiontra,

thanks for your input.

I have mentioned the recalculating of the MTF. which does NOT bother me. If you say this system does not work for you, no problem.

My account since July is telling me otherwise and the last two week live have confirmed me.

so please, if it doesn't works according to you, don't tell my account

Udine

Okay, please re-read my previous posts.

Why you keep posting these non-existing signals in all of your trade examples. All your example trade signals are invalid in real-time, because you trading signals in the example are based on the repainting indicators up to 16-bars. If you do know your indicators repaints up to 16-bars, why you keep posting trade signals based on these MTF repainting indicators. That is the reason I post my explanation. And that bothers me a lot. For somebody well versed in FX, and do know what a repaint indicator is, and keep posting trading signals based on these faulty repaint indicators. They are all dreams, non-existing in the real-time. Only can see in the hind-sight static chart. Please re-read all of my previous posts. This is faulty strategy. Be very careful. It changes colors up to 16 bars. You trade signals can be negated in real-time in the next few bars, because these green bars and red bars are changing and keep changing for up to 16 bars in the future......
  • #839
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:29pm Nov 11, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting precisiontra
Okay, please re-read my previous posts.

Why you keep posting these non-existing signals in all of your trade examples. All your example trade signals are invalid in real-time, because you trading signals in the example are based on the repainting indicators up to 16-bars. If you do know your indicators repaints up to 16-bars, why you keep posting trade signals based on these MTF repainting indicators. That is the reason I post my explanation. And that bothers me a lot. For somebody well versed in FX, and do know what a repaint indicator is, and...
Have you tried testing this in real time? We know there is a repainting issue therefore making backtesting impossible but try trading it live.
  • #840
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:30pm Nov 11, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting precisiontra
Okay, please re-read my previous posts.

Why you keep posting these non-existing signals in all of your trade examples. All your example trade signals are invalid in real-time, because you trading signals in the example are based on the repainting indicators up to 16-bars. If you do know your indicators repaints up to 16-bars, why you keep posting trade signals based on these MTF repainting indicators. That is the reason I post my explanation. And that bothers me a lot. For somebody well versed in FX, and do know what a repaint indicator is, and...

I am trading this live, I get great results.

take a look on monday to the charts and then tell me if it works or not.

The charts in the first posts are like an example to give an idea of the system. But please be my guest.

If it is not your system or style oftrading, please look for another one.

Good luck in your effords

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
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