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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,221
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:02pm Nov 11, 2011 3:02pm
SSI contrarian indicator for today (19:50 GMT):

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.92 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.34 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 24.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.8% higher than yesterday and 26.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.11 as nearly 76% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 52.8% lower than yesterday and 8.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 73.8% higher than yesterday and 64.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.1% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
  • #9,222
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:07pm Nov 11, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Your stop loss for GBP/USD should be above 1.6130
What was your entry?
1.60100. A little above the 40SMA. I expected a pushdown here but it went straight through.

Do you recommend to put a stop over the weekend? I am afraid that there will be a gap over the stop.
  • #9,223
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:12pm Nov 11, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting w1nner
SSI contrarian indicator for today (19:50 GMT):

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.92 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.34 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 24.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.8% higher than yesterday and 26.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains....

These contrarian indicators are based on data from one retail broker.
Although they seem to work most of the time, you have to fully understand how they are used. A contrarian indicator is not a leading indie. It is only supposed to be used as a confirming indicator when all other indicators point i n the same direction. Also a ratio between -2.00 and +2.00 is even less accurate.

In a nutshell, you have to look at the big picture. Look at what the main trend is. Look at what all the other indicators tell you and understand the fundamentals. Very very dangerous to get caught up in the micro view. The markets always swing up and down. If you buy (or close a sell) at the top or sell (or close a buy) at the bottom of a wave (swing), you are maximizing loss potential. To minimize loss potential, you have to do the opposite (Sell at top and buy at bottom of swing). Look at the GBP/USD swing. Is it at the top or the bottom?

I hope this helps.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,224
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:16pm Nov 11, 2011 3:16pm
PT when you look at indexes s&r do you use futures or the actual SP500? My futures closed just below the 200sma.. Either way it doesnt look good for bulls come monday not being able to break that resistance.. Just out of curiosity really?
  • #9,225
  • Edited 3:46pm Nov 11, 2011 3:27pm | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting w1nner
1.60100. A little above the 40SMA. I expected a pushdown here but it went straight through.

Do you recommend to put a stop over the weekend? I am afraid that there will be a gap over the stop.
Okay I looked at the H4 of the G/U. I assume you were using the H4 because that is the only one that has the 40sma around the 1.6010 price.

I would have entered at 1.6030 (61.8% fibo) but only if I saw that the price stalled there on resistance on the M15 chart. From what I see on M15, it cut right through on the same candle.

Now if I were in your situation right now, based on what I told you in my last post just before this one, I would wait for a retrace. I expect price to retrace to the 23.6% line at 1.5929 area or at least the 38.2% line at 1.5968
The alternative is that it keeps going up past 100% (very doubtful). Another scenario is that it makes one last push to the 88.6% line and then fall back to the 38.2% line

If you can afford a stop loss above last week's high of 1.6170, that would be a good place in case something really bad happens and you are not at your computer.

All other indications are that this is going down.


ADD: I have added the daily chart to show you something. I drew a fibo tool from the August high to the October low. Since the end of October, it has been drawing a possible 5 wave bull flag in a falling channel just below the 61.8% line. I doubt it is a bull flag but for argument's sake, let's say it is. Today's move up would be wave # 4. Therefore Monday would be a move down to complete wave 5.

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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-h4.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-m15.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-d1.gif Size: 23 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,226
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:31pm Nov 11, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting RodMca
PT when you look at indexes s&r do you use futures or the actual SP500? My futures closed just below the 200sma.. Either way it doesnt look good for bulls come monday not being able to break that resistance.. Just out of curiosity really?
I'm not 100% sure as I don't trade it. I only use it as a reference.
However, I assume it is futures as it runs 24/5
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,227
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:35pm Nov 11, 2011 3:35pm
Have a great weekend. I'm gone.

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,228
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:38pm Nov 11, 2011 3:38pm
I want to do the same, sell the top and buy the bottom. I am saying it to myself every time. We can suppose a top / bottom but we never know until the market shows. I don't want trying to guess tops / bottoms, rather I want to go with the trend. But now the trend is broken in my point of view (moving average, trendline, etc.).. It is the time to decide to exit from the trade or risk more-give it a last chance that it will test back to the entry point.

What swing and top/bottom do you mean? On the GBPUSD daily I sold the middle of a sideways range.. Looking at the 30M or 1H charts it is not going to reverse at all. Is it a bad point of view?
  • #9,229
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:43pm Nov 11, 2011 3:43pm
PT is right on, reverse is coming, that's my opinion but the chart is not bs me at this point. Lots of pretty dang strong supply zone there at 1.6092x.

Quoting w1nner
I want to do the same, sell the top and buy the bottom. I am saying it to myself every time. We can suppose a top / bottom but we never know until the market shows. I don't want trying to guess tops / bottoms, rather I want to go with the trend. But now the trend is broken in my point of view (moving average, trendline, etc.).. It is the time to decide to exit from the trade or risk more-give it a last chance that it will test back to the entry point.

What swing and top/bottom do you mean? On the GBPUSD daily I sold the middle of a sideways range.....
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #9,230
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:47pm Nov 11, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting w1nner
I want to do the same, sell the top and buy the bottom. I am saying it to myself every time. We can suppose a top / bottom but we never know until the market shows. I don't want trying to guess tops / bottoms, rather I want to go with the trend. But now the trend is broken in my point of view (moving average, trendline, etc.).. It is the time to decide to exit from the trade or risk more-give it a last chance that it will test back to the entry point.

What swing and top/bottom do you mean? On the GBPUSD daily I sold the middle of a sideways...
I added something to the post with the charts. Take a look --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post5126722
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,231
  • Nov 11, 2011 3:51pm Nov 11, 2011 3:51pm
Okay Gents, what about the EURUSD now? This weakness at close a telling sign of Sunday's open?

What do you all see?
  • #9,232
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:01pm Nov 11, 2011 4:01pm
Quoting chodd22
Okay Gents, what about the EURUSD now? This weakness at close a telling sign of Sunday's open?

What do you all see?
Hey Chodd. Where have you been hiding?
I'm short at 1.37101 and 1.37662
I left them for the weekend.
Many reasons for my shorts, all of which you can find in my previous posts today. Just click on my name and search my posts. I only post here so you'll see them all in reverse chronological order.

Here's my daily chart...

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 22 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,233
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:06pm Nov 11, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Chodd. Where have you been hiding?
I'm short at 1.37101 and 1.37662
I left them for the weekend.
Many reasons for my shorts, all of which you can find in my previous posts today. Just click on my name and search my posts. I only post here so you'll see them all in reverse chronological order.

Here's my daily chart...

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Whats up PT? Been kicking my own a$$ for not closing my shorts 1.369 and 1.368 when it was faking me out in the .35's...I didn't see this Italian news coming...thats why I'm a beginner. I'm holding through the weekend as well. I went and read your posts. You da man? Whats your professional background if I may ask?
  • #9,234
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:10pm Nov 11, 2011 4:10pm
Check out this article...interesting read no doubt.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/283060

PT and posters, what do you all think of this? Great forum chatter to feast on no doubt.
  • #9,235
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:14pm Nov 11, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting chodd22
Whats up PT? Been kicking my own a$$ for not closing my shorts 1.369 and 1.368 when it was faking me out in the .35's...I didn't see this Italian news coming...thats why I'm a beginner. I'm holding through the weekend as well. I went and read your posts. You da man? Whats your professional background if I may ask?
Education is Electronics Engineering and Business Management.
Professional background is IT and Business Finance.
Current status is full time Forex trader and part time software developer.

As for your underwater positions, you're not in that much trouble yet (depending on your drawdown %)
As you've read in my previous posts today, I fully expect a retest of the lows again, so you may get out with a profit or at the very least mitigate your losses.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,236
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:14pm Nov 11, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting chodd22
Okay Gents, what about the EURUSD now? This weakness at close a telling sign of Sunday's open?

What do you all see?
I think its going higher early next week, its not worth much, but this is where I plan to take short positions, assuming we get to these levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: short.jpg Size: 127 KB
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,237
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:15pm Nov 11, 2011 4:15pm
Testing my chart posting skills.

Have a great weekend!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h_e$_11-11-11_.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #9,238
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:18pm Nov 11, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting chodd22
Whats up PT? Been kicking my own a$$ for not closing my shorts 1.369 and 1.368 when it was faking me out in the .35's...I didn't see this Italian news coming...thats why I'm a beginner. I'm holding through the weekend as well. I went and read your posts. You da man? Whats your professional background if I may ask?
The Euro/usd will definitely see those prices again, probably next week, I do think we're going up early next week, I think the US markets will rally on the Italian and Greek news and that will cause a Euro rise, then I think when we hit some major supply areas it will get sold down. Ultimately, I think the Euro is going to 1.30 and 1.20, but because the Euro still is higher yielding than the worthless USD, its a real fight between the Eurozone's continuing deteriorating fundamentals v. the fact the interest rate is 1.25 and there has been no money printing, that's why you got everyone scratching their heads about euro strength, its gonna be hard to take it down, but it will go down eventually.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,239
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:19pm Nov 11, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Education is Electronics Engineering and Business Management.
Professional background is IT and Business Finance.
Current status is full time Forex trader and part time software developer.

As for your underwater positions, you're not in that much trouble yet (depending on your drawdown %)
As you've read in my previous posts today, I fully expect a retest of the lows again, so you may get out with a profit or at the very least mitigate your losses.
Explains your educated responses and rational logic. I've been in agreement with your analysis pretty much every post. Thanks for your time on here, its very generous of your time.

My drawdown on it is minimal, but who likes taking a loss ever...right! I'm not a day trader, I have time and equity luckily.
  • #9,240
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:21pm Nov 11, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting chodd22
Check out this article...interesting read no doubt.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/283060

PT and posters, what do you all think of this? Great forum chatter to feast on no doubt.
Ah yes Eurogeddon.
Conspiracy theory. That's all it is. There is a lot more at stake here than just money. Germany and France do not want to let go of Greece, Italy and Spain and if they ever did, the USA would be right there to welcome them as the newest states. Think about their geographic locations and you'll see my point.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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