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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,121
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:32am Nov 11, 2011 8:32am
Whoa, went back for a while, and I see we made 100 pips on one H4 candle...

Just curious, PT, are you still holding your short? I have no idea why she skyrocketed like that.
  • #9,122
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:32am Nov 11, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Pbh
RodMca's strategy, bulletproof?

Looking to short sooner than later
535 pips and counting over 5 currencies pair just like I said
  • #9,123
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:34am Nov 11, 2011 8:34am
Quoting RodMca
535 pips and counting over 5 currencies pair just like I said
Everybody don't say today it wasn't easy
  • #9,124
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:34am Nov 11, 2011 8:34am
Quoting w1nner
Do you mean I can exit on the end of the day with profit? I would be happy with 0 profit in this situation. If you look the GBPUSD H1 chart, it went through the 200SMA with a very strong bullish bar. It is also very steppy on the 5M chart. This makes me worry very much.
I cannot predict what is going to happen and I would not want anyone to trade on my recommendation but I have to say what I believe.

What I believe is that today is a retail trader's paradise. The big boys are too busy on their day off to push this market where it is supposed to go.
Most retail traders are intraday and most of them would never hold positions over the weekend.

Therefore later today, I expect a sell-off. Even if we don't get a sell-off, the bulls will only push it so far. Actually, it's probably almost done.

This is my belief and I am trading it. I have a short position at 1.3710. If we see 1.3840/50 today I will place another short. I have full confidence that I will not lose on this. Any Euro rallies, until the Euro economic problems are resolved, will be short lived. It is just a matter of how far underwater one is willing to go to chase that belief. I'm good till 1.43, but 1.3840/50 is pretty well the top for today.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,125
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:35am Nov 11, 2011 8:35am
Dead Cat Bounce ?
  • #9,126
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:40am Nov 11, 2011 8:40am
Big risk on day.

Found a place to step on the northbound train on the 1 minute. A bit risky. Put on a 1% piece with a 10 pip SL @ 1.3732 Stop now @ BE.

Price now coming into the bottom of the 60 minute supply zone. Pulled 1/2 position +34 leaving the rest to run. Target 1.4133 will adjust as I feel necessary.

Entry
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earlier 60 posted
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Update 60
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daily update
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,127
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:40am Nov 11, 2011 8:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
This is my belief and I am trading it. I have a short position at 1.3710. If we see 1.3840/50 today I will place another short. I have full confidence that I will not lose on this. Any Euro rallies, until the Euro economic problems are resolved, will be short lived. It is just a matter of how far underwater one is willing to go to chase that belief. I'm good till 1.43, but 1.3840/50 is pretty well the top for today.
Euro's way to trade... based on the way that "project" is going, the idea is to sell rallies

Or don't you remember what Sarkozy said?

EDIT: Sarkozy said: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post5123586
  • #9,128
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:42am Nov 11, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Blobik
Whoa, went back for a while, and I see we made 100 pips on one H4 candle...

Just curious, PT, are you still holding your short? I have no idea why she skyrocketed like that.
The Eur/usd is controlled by the dow jones during the NY session. If the dow goes up, so does the Euro. It is really that simple.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,129
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:44am Nov 11, 2011 8:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
I cannot predict what is going to happen and I would not want anyone to trade on my recommendation but I have to say what I believe.

What I believe is that today is a retail trader's paradise. The big boys are too busy on their day off to push this market where it is supposed to go.
Most retail traders are intraday and most of them would never hold positions over the weekend.

Therefore later today, I expect a sell-off. Even if we don't get a sell-off, the bulls will only push it so far. Actually, it's probably almost done.

This is my belief...
Thanks you very much for your detailed answer. I am short on GBPUSD, I hope that will behave similar to EURUSD. I hope so you are right.

2 days before I was long on EURUSD, I lost a lot, now I could exit from that order with almost 0 loss.. What an unlucky week for me..
  • #9,130
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:44am Nov 11, 2011 8:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
What I believe is that today is a retail trader's paradise. The big boys are too busy on their day off to push this market where it is supposed to go.
Most retail traders are intraday and most of them would never hold positions over the weekend.

Therefore later today, I expect a sell-off. Even if we don't get a sell-off, the bulls will only push it so far. Actually, it's probably almost done.

.
So PT, I guess based on you analysis there is no news/ fundamentals that supports this huge upward trend?
  • #9,131
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:46am Nov 11, 2011 8:46am
was there a post I can find your strategy? Very curious.

Quoting RodMca
535 pips and counting over 5 currencies pair just like I said
  • #9,132
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:46am Nov 11, 2011 8:46am
Quoting w1nner
Now I only see an angled trendline az 1.61100 which can be a resistance, next one is the 1.61655 - the top of the range on the daily, if goes above, this is the final stop.. But I am afraid it won't turn back today.
Equities starting to cool down a bit I don't think theres too much buying going to happen but like PT said it's impossible to tell just stay cool and do what you feel is right be patient with it! It really wants to go down judging by M5 and M15 is starting to look that way too just play it cool mate
  • #9,133
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:47am Nov 11, 2011 8:47am
Quoting tianle
So PT, I guess based on you analysis there is no news/ fundamentals that supports this huge upward trend?
This is why you don't trade holidays, I covered all my longs yesterday at 1.3645, I didn't want to be in for today's circus when all the big boys are on vacation. In hindsight, wish I had stayed in. lol Anyways, I might jump in over the weekend, if they push this high enough, its a nice shorting opportunity.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,134
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:51am Nov 11, 2011 8:51am
Quoting tianle
So PT, I guess based on you analysis there is no news/ fundamentals that supports this huge upward trend?
ECB toxic bond buying, 2012 budget aprooved, Berlusconi practically out (yes, his responsible for 100 pips )
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  • #9,135
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:53am Nov 11, 2011 8:53am
Quoting AaronWard
The Eur/usd is controlled by the dow jones during the NY session. If the dow goes up, so does the Euro. It is really that simple.
Ha Ha Aaron. That's the magic box theory. You know it's more complex than that and it only applies when there is a convergent correlation. There have been times where correlation has been divergent and that time is starting to show itself. Today it is 100% correlated due to the bond markets being closed and the big boys staying home. Monday will be a different story.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,136
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:57am Nov 11, 2011 8:57am
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-concerns.html

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to the strongest against the dollar since Japan’s government intervened last month to weaken it as concern Europe’s spreading debt crisis will dent global growth spurred investors to seek haven assets.
  • #9,137
  • Nov 11, 2011 8:59am Nov 11, 2011 8:59am
You may already know this, but it's always good to read a good article

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ni-s-exit.html

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s Senate approved debt- reduction measures in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti.
  • #9,138
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:01am Nov 11, 2011 9:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ha Ha Aaron. That's the magic box theory. You know it's more complex than that and it only applies when there is a convergent correlation. There have been times where correlation has been divergent and that time is starting to show itself. Today it is 100% correlated due to the bond markets being closed and the big boys staying home. Monday will be a different story.
I've been trying to figure out how and when the Euro/Dow trade will decouple, we know Bernanke will keep rates at basically 0% at least through mid-2013, has printed trillions and will more likely than not do so as the world economy weakens in 2012, the Euros will lower rates, but will not print money, at least not yet and may never, but the Eurozone has major sovereign debt problems and will be going into a recession prior to the US reentering recession, so will that ultimately lead to the decoupling of the euro/dow trade, I don't know, it may never will until Bernanke raises rates again and suck all that excess liquidity out of the system.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,139
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:08am Nov 11, 2011 9:08am
Quoting RodMca
Equities starting to cool down a bit I don't think theres too much buying going to happen but like PT said it's impossible to tell just stay cool and do what you feel is right be patient with it! It really wants to go down judging by M5 and M15 is starting to look that way too just play it cool mate
GBPUSD is forming a bullish pennant, can be seen well on 30M chart. It would mean the uptrend will resume soon.

USD news (Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment) was good, it could take the USD higher not lower. Italian news are bad, it could make the EUR (GBP) lower, not higher.
  • #9,140
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:09am Nov 11, 2011 9:09am
Btw, if this was truly a risk-on rally today, the other risk-based currencies would be rallying much more than the Euro, this is just taking stop loss paradise for those who went on vacation today and shorted yesterday before they went home.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
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