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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,921
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:35pm Nov 10, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting RodMca
My question is how does Greece`continue to function when analysts say their debt:GDP ratio will be over 200%? If Greece leaves the euro it will be the european version of Zimbabwe and like PT said during the week I'll be the first to go long on the German deutsche mark and the greek drachma pairing! And if Greece doesnt leave the whole system will crumble seeing as just the european banking system needs one trillion! (from the article above) thats just the banks taken care of how will Spain/ Italy etc afford borrowing at 7% and if the ECB isnt here...
The ECB will cease to exist only when the EuroZone ceases to exist.
Until then the ECB has a fiduciary responsibility (regardless of treaties) to do whatever it has to in order to maintain price stability in the medium term. If it has to purchase bonds to do so, no matter how toxic they are, it has to do it.

If the EuroZone ceases to exist, then the ECB is gone also and each EZ country goes back to their old currency and their own central banks will be able to set their own independent monetary policy... they way it was before.

Same applies if the EZ is split in two. Then we will have two ECBs South-ECB and North-ECB... in which case I will be long the NEUR/SEUR
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,922
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:37pm Nov 10, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting RodMca
So a short over the weekend may be the best plan of action seeing as the ECB more than likely added a few more billion to that 59 billion already there and look what we saw last Monday major selling.. Maybe we'll get a retrace tomorrow and put in a sell on friday just before the close?
That's my tentative plan. Let's see what happens tomorrow first.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,923
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:42pm Nov 10, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting Pbh
ECB Said to Start 40 Billion-Euro Covered Bond Purchases

The program is part of policy makers’ efforts to stablize the financial system as Greece teeters on the brink of default and Italian bond yields soar to records. The ECB has also purchased bonds of the euro region’s most-indebted governments and provided banks with unlimited funding at its basic interest rate, currently 1.25 percent.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...purchases.html

Did...
Yep... it was on the news wires this morning but it is yet to be officially confirmed by the ECB.
Normally they don't announce it until they are well into it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,924
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:43pm Nov 10, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The ECB will cease to exist only when the EuroZone ceases to exist.
Until then the ECB has a fiduciary responsibility (regardless of treaties) to do whatever it has to in order to maintain price stability in the medium term. If it has to purchase bonds to do so, no matter how toxic they are, it has to do it.

If the EuroZone ceases to exist, then the ECB is gone also and each EZ country goes back to their old currency and their own central banks will be able to set their own independent monetary policy... they way it was before.

Same applies if...
Well I know one thing is for sure Ireland isn't printing the Punt just for the craic of it.. I know its just a plan B but I highly doubt the euro-zone would be split in two? Would it really be feasible for the Germany to have its own central bank while the 16 other countries are controlled by another? I say 16 others because lets face Germany is the only one with a leg to stand on! So long as they dont have to bail out a country they're loving this a weakening euro and cheaper borrwoing costs=more exports!! I truly believe the euro-zone will cease to exist! As the ECB's Knot said today we are ultimately defenceless against the on going debt crisis......
  • #8,925
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:44pm Nov 10, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep... it was on the news wires this morning but it is yet to be officially confirmed by the ECB.
Normally they don't announce it until they are well into it.
Good to know
I think I won't miss Euro crashing train at all
  • #8,926
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:45pm Nov 10, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting RodMca
Would it really be feasible for the Germany to have its own central bank while the 16 other countries are controlled by another?
1 more, 2 more, 3 more ,4, 5 ,6 10, 17, more currencies? mmm
Would be nice to short in cable
  • #8,927
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:58pm Nov 10, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting RodMca
Well I know one thing is for sure Ireland isn't printing the Punt just for the craic of it.. I know its just a plan B but I highly doubt the euro-zone would be split in two? Would it really be feasible for the Germany to have its own central bank while the 16 other countries are controlled by another? I say 16 others because lets face Germany is the only one with a leg to stand on! So long as they dont have to bail out a country they're loving this a weakening euro and cheaper borrwoing costs=more exports!! I truly believe the euro-zone will cease...
I have always believed that the proof is in the pudding.
Nothing is certain until it happens.
Politicians and central bankers do way too much jawboning for their own good.
All words, no action.
In the end, we may see a more integrated EuroZone with a central fiscal governance agency.. like a federal tax and finance department managing all the 17 EZ members.
The other 10 EU member states with their own currencies will still be part of Europe but they will have a separate treaty as they have their own currency.
Sarkozy talked about it and called it "A two speed Europe"
Here is an article that talks about it --> Two-speed Europe, or two Europes?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,928
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:11pm Nov 10, 2011 4:11pm
Not a whole lot happened while I was away. I still have my limits in place and will just watch today. Price didn't retrace to 1.369 as I thought, something iffy is going on.
  • #8,929
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:13pm Nov 10, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting jeff_b
Not a whole lot happened while I was away. I still have my limits in place and will just watch today. Price didn't retrace to 1.369 as I thought, something iffy is going on.
I suspect the US took a break today. Veteran's day tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,930
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:17pm Nov 10, 2011 4:17pm
Didn't get to look at anything today or trade today So busy at work. Anyway just took a look at my simple charts (which I have no clue how to post). And everything is too eerily quiet right now so I'm avoiding any shorts at this level, I think it will go higher and set up a better short, might break through the 1.3650 level before it starts going down again. Gut feeling on my part, it just looks like there's upside pressure right now.
  • #8,931
  • Edited 4:33pm Nov 10, 2011 4:17pm | Edited 4:33pm
and yet one more reason for the Euro to go up

Bullish Pennant

ADD: According to my calculations, the daily pivot for Friday will be around 1.3580, putting it below current price and perfectly on the neckline of the failed Head/Shoulders formation.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,932
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:34pm Nov 10, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting PipTrapper
and yet one more reason for the Euro to go up

Bullish Pennant

.
I suspected this will be formed 6 hours earlier. But I don't trade such formations, now I regret it, it was 200 free pips.
  • #8,933
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:40pm Nov 10, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting w1nner
I suspected this will be formed 6 hours earlier. But I don't trade such formations, now I regret it, it was 200 free pips.
Like any formation, it should not be traded in anticipation that it will be formed because that is just an assumption and amounts to nothing short of gambling.
Once it is formed, then you can trade the most probable next move.
In this case it is bullish.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,934
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:02pm Nov 10, 2011 6:02pm
I have been going through this a bit myself and to me I am looking at heading back to the 1.385x area but there is that mental resistance at 1.38000 area, add a big imbalance supply zone and unless the EUR can turn water into wine then should reject, not set in stone but if all is right with the norm then bullish is the short term, just giving my opinion of course.

Quoting PipTrapper
Like any formation, it should not be traded in anticipation that it will be formed because that is just an assumption and amounts to nothing short of gambling.
Once it is formed, then you can trade the most probable next move.
In this case it is bullish.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #8,935
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:14pm Nov 10, 2011 6:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Like any formation, it should not be traded in anticipation that it will be formed because that is just an assumption and amounts to nothing short of gambling.
Once it is formed, then you can trade the most probable next move.
In this case it is bullish.
Would you buy here? My feeling it will lift but I'm not sure. Looking at other USD based pairs I'm confused.
  • #8,936
  • Nov 10, 2011 7:24pm Nov 10, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting w1nner
Would you buy here? My feeling it will lift but I'm not sure. Looking at other USD based pairs I'm confused.
To me this market is very news driven therefore indicators are very weak. I would see what news comes next on Italy. If it is considered good buy, if it is not sell. Indicators do not work well in a news driven market.
  • #8,937
  • Nov 10, 2011 9:33pm Nov 10, 2011 9:33pm
Quoting w1nner
Would you buy here? My feeling it will lift but I'm not sure. Looking at other USD based pairs I'm confused.
I would have... but I fell asleep.

Now I'll have to wait for a pullback at the Asian close, if any
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  • #8,938
  • Nov 10, 2011 9:42pm Nov 10, 2011 9:42pm
Sarkozy:

"So what one we do? To begin with, frankly, the single currency is a wonderful idea, but it was strange to create it without asking oneself the question of its governance, and without asking oneself about economic convergence. Honestly, it's nice to have a vision, but there are details that are missing: we made a currency, but we kept fiscal systems and economic systems that not only were not converging, but were diverging. And not only did we make a single currency without convergence, but we tried to undo the rules of the pact. It cannot work."

It's really stupid that you just noticed.
  • #8,939
  • Nov 10, 2011 9:42pm Nov 10, 2011 9:42pm
Should be an ok pullback coming, not sure it will be amazing but 24 pips or so, if it happens, 1.3607x area, then again could go to the moon knowing this pair lol.
Quoting Pbh
I would have... but I fell asleep.

Now I'll have to wait for a pullback at the Asian close, if any
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #8,940
  • Nov 10, 2011 9:44pm Nov 10, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting fxrising
Should be an ok pullback coming
Hope so... I frankly expect a strong bullish day. Or at least, that's what I want

Low volume, ECB buying bonds like crazy.
That might be enough.
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