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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #8,881
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:34am Nov 10, 2011 11:34am
Uhoh! Bernutty is speaking again........watch your shorts with this guy!
  • #8,882
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:35am Nov 10, 2011 11:35am
Quoting TheSwede
No problem. Still excellent numbers.
Really it's not that excellent. I am usually a chicken when it comes to entering some trades. Many times I see a trade setup and I chicken out and it turns out to be an excellent trade. It's called "Failure to Launch"
Yesterday was a perfect example. I didn't manage to take advantage of the drop even though I saw a perfect short setup at 1.3800 (pullback after the initial drop on the 08:00 GMT candle). It happens often.
However, perhaps all that caution keeps me from losing
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,883
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:43am Nov 10, 2011 11:43am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Placed my long at 2 pips below yesterday low on AUDUSD. SL at yesterday low of 1.01170, presently +25 pips
I will not place a long on EURUSD reasons already given.

Will wait for short opportunity on EURUSD.
Good call.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,884
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:51am Nov 10, 2011 11:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just based on what you typed here, my initial reaction is that either your system still needs improvement, or your emotions are making you stray from your system for a few extra pips on hope that it will go further or perhaps it goes against you and you hope it is only a retrace.

Hope does not make a trading system.
My system is very simple and it works, the problem is me. I think there is no such system which is profitable if you trade every situation without a filter. I do not trade for a few extra pips, it is not worth the risk. I am very picky, too picky to wait for clean trades. And you are right, my emotions often make me stray from my system and I miss many good trades or I make very good trades but I do not keep them until I should. For example I bought EURUSD on 26/10/2011 at 1.3800 (real) and I closed that trade (because the 1H breakout) with 22 pips then it went 450 pips up. More than 50% of my trades are similar, winner but I do not keep them. The other problem that I overtrade some trades, I want more profit and the market takes back the profit.
  • #8,885
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:52am Nov 10, 2011 11:52am
The excellent thing is that its consistent. I have over 1500 PIPS this month. But this is an exceptional month for me.

Instead of chicken out as you do I'm sometimes too trigger happy. I make a lot of mistakes and think that some setup will occur enter a trade and then the setup doesn't happen. Like today at the 1.3640 level I jumped in on that level (first arrow) instead of waiting for the confirmation (second arrow). The problem with me being trigger happy is that I miss out on pips, get stopped out and that I loose patience.

So I guess you can always improve.

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Quoting PipTrapper
Really it's not that excellent. I am usually a chicken when it comes to entering some trades. Many times I see a trade setup and I chicken out and it turns out to be an excellent trade. It's called "Failure to Launch"
Yesterday was a perfect example. I didn't manage to take advantage of the drop even though I saw a perfect short setup at 1.3800 (pullback after the initial drop on the 08:00 GMT candle). It happens often.
However, perhaps all that caution keeps me from losing
  • #8,886
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:01pm Nov 10, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting w1nner
My system is very simple and it works, the problem is me. I think there is no such system which is profitable if you trade every situation without a filter. I do not trade for a few extra pips, it is not worth the risk. I am very picky, too picky to wait for clean trades. And you are right, my emotions often make me stray from my system and I miss many good trades or I make very good trades but I do not keep them until I should. For example I bought EURUSD on 26/10/2011 at 1.3800 (real) and I closed that trade (because the 1H breakout) with 22 pips...
Well at least you know the problem. You are more than half way to fixing it. It's not easy to do what you have to do to fix it but at least you know what it is. Controlling one's emotions during a trade takes time to master. Even I have those same emotions. What if? and all that crap. When ever I feel that way. I do something else. Drink a glass of water, go wash my face.. anything to get me away from the mouse long enough so I am able to calm down and think rationally rather than with fear. One day I hope to be able to stare at the monitor emotionless and instead of thinking "What If?" I will be thinking of my next possible entry, or what to have for dinner, or what I will be spending my extra profits on. I am almost there, but not quite. Work on it. It really helps.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,887
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:05pm Nov 10, 2011 12:05pm


I see a big sell zone and will add position if it slides to top of zone. My number is still 1.3670, but if 1.3650 hits and drops, I will sell at the retest, or sit on my hands again.
What say ye?
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  • #8,888
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:05pm Nov 10, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting TheSwede
The excellent thing is that its consistent. I have over 1500 PIPS this month. But this is an exceptional month for me.

Instead of chicken out as you do I'm sometimes too trigger happy. I make a lot of mistakes and think that some setup will occur enter a trade and then the setup doesn't happen. Like today at the 1.3640 level I jumped in on that level (first arrow) instead of waiting for the confirmation (second arrow). The problem with me being trigger happy is that I miss out on pips, get stopped out and that I loose patience.

So I guess...
These are all very common problems. The fear of loss plays out in different ways. I have overcome the fear of missing a trade. Rationally it is much better to miss a good trade than to jump into a bad one. You just have to consider the net effect.
1. Enter Bad Trade = Lose Money
2. Miss Good Trade = Even Steven
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,889
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:10pm Nov 10, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting Gofer Pips


I see a big sell zone and will add position if it slides to top of zone. My number is still 1.3670, but if 1.3650 hits and drops, I will sell at the retest, or sit on my hands again.
What say ye?
I specifically remember when price was in this area before the drop to 1.3145, we had a similar debate. 1.3620 to 1.3670 or something like that. I will search for the post and reference it here as an ADD

ADD: Here is the last post of the series --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post4997623

The absolute high ended up being 1.3690. Deja Vu
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,890
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:15pm Nov 10, 2011 12:15pm
  • #8,891
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:23pm Nov 10, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Well at least you know the problem. You are more than half way to fixing it. It's not easy to do what you have to do to fix it but at least you know what it is. Controlling one's emotions during a trade takes time to master. Even I have those same emotions. What if? and all that crap. When ever I feel that way. I do something else. Drink a glass of water, go wash my face.. anything to get me away from the mouse long enough so I am able to calm down and think rationally rather than with fear. One day I hope to be able to stare at the monitor emotionless...
Thanks for your advices, I am working on this thing.
  • #8,892
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:25pm Nov 10, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper


I specifically remember when price was in this area before the drop to 1.3145, we had a similar debate. 1.3620 to 1.3670 or something like that. I will search for the post and reference it here as an ADD

ADD: Here is the last post of the series --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post4997623

The absolute high ended up being 1.3690. Deja Vu
Well shiver me timbers...........wish I had photographic memory and remember all anal retentive spots PA liked to pivot on.

Looks like history may repeat itself!
  • #8,893
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:43pm Nov 10, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well shiver me timbers...........wish I had photographic memory and remember all anal retentive spots PA liked to pivot on.

Looks like history may repeat itself!
Okay let's also look at this from a basic technical analysis of a simple chart pattern... 123 reversal.

Typically, in a 123 reversal scenario, the distance traveled past the breakout point is equivalent to the distance between point 1 and point 3. In this case it is the distance between the bottom and the following higher low.
I have posted my H1 chart below to show you what I mean with dashed yellow horizontal lines.
So, if we break above today's high of 1.3650, then our target will be 1.3717
Obviously this is a loose rule but pretty well plays out okay.
Despite the fact that it may overshoot the target, I would not rely 100% on price actually hitting the target. It could go either way.
Therefore I am very comfortable with 1.3690 as my limit order.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,894
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:46pm Nov 10, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting w1nner
Thanks for your advices, I am working on this thing.
Excellent. If you ever need to ask a question about anything, don't be shy. Everyone here is helpful where they can be.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,895
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:48pm Nov 10, 2011 12:48pm
However the daily close will be more than 4 hours later, I think it will hold this price. I expected a bearish (lower close than open) daily bar where the shadow is at about 1.3680-1.3690. Now the moving averages on the 1H chart hold the price down. If it goes up to 1.3680, the hourly trend breaks and I think it can change back polarity on the daily and it can go easily up to 1.38700 or higher. What do you think about it?

What is the similarity with the situation in 2008?
  • #8,896
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:48pm Nov 10, 2011 12:48pm
wow.. you have a good memory PT.. btw.. those charts similar to TF15 right now.. with the TL as well.. hmm.. to take or not.. i dunno.. but i give it a try.. tight SL
  • #8,897
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:50pm Nov 10, 2011 12:50pm
4H Outlook
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,898
  • Nov 10, 2011 1:00pm Nov 10, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting w1nner
However the daily close will be more than 4 hours later, I think it will hold this price. I expected a bearish (lower close than open) daily bar where the shadow is at about 1.3680-1.3690. Now the moving averages on the 1H chart hold the price down. If it goes up to 1.3680, the hourly trend breaks and I think it can change back polarity on the daily and it can go easily up to 1.38700 or higher. What do you think about it?

What is the similarity with the situation in 2008?
On the H4 chart right now the 200sma is just above 1.3690 at 1.3699
I pay no notice to the smaller MAs in the big time frames.
Besides, one of the main reasons for the price to go up there is unfinished business with the 200sma line on the H4. It broke it but never re-tested it. Historically it is always retested at some point.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,899
  • Nov 10, 2011 1:05pm Nov 10, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting AsparaGus
wow.. you have a good memory PT.. btw.. those charts similar to TF15 right now.. with the TL as well.. hmm.. to take or not.. i dunno.. but i give it a try.. tight SL
I don't think you will get too far today unless you want to babysit the trade till tomorrow. But then again, you never know
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,900
  • Nov 10, 2011 1:12pm Nov 10, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well shiver me timbers...........wish I had photographic memory and remember all anal retentive spots PA liked to pivot on.

Looks like history may repeat itself!
Just before the big drop...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post4999371

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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