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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,741
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:41am Nov 10, 2011 5:41am
Quoting knoholygrail
Italy brought the panics back to the financial markets. If anyone thought that the approval of the European bailout plan would take the markets to the green track, yesterday was the proof that no one can really know where the markets are heading.

http://p4tre.emv3.com/HM?a=ENX7Cqm6D...Vsje_HhdBNhlFa
yeah gotta stick my hand up and admit that I was taken in by the bailout.... I thought that if it held we could've moved to mid-40s'. Then Greek referendum was announced and now Italy.... and who knows, the French might be targeted next.

I'm now pip positive, so all is well :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #8,742
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:41am Nov 10, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Blobik
Seems you really enjoy being on TOP


Awhile back, every time FXMindset posted he was at top of page and said so. I guess it is my turn for awhile.
  • #8,743
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:42am Nov 10, 2011 5:42am
Quoting AaronWard
Interesting choice of a number...
Hehehe, this devilish number holded as a ressistance for weeks now. I dont have my notes here so I dont know where did it came from, but I think it is something like week 38 or 39 close. Right after August drop. But as I said, I aint sure, I have only lines here at work.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,744
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:43am Nov 10, 2011 5:43am
08Nov 2011
WHY THIS FOREX TRADE loses?
How I trade? Forex Trade Setup.
A) Analysis:
1) Forex Technical Analysis

a) Key Level (Hourly Chart) @1.3825 (Previous day high)
b) Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Chart Pattern
c) Pivot Point Indicator @ Resistance Level 1

2) Forex Fundamental Analysis:
a) GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro pare gains after Italian vote
Details:
Tue Nov 8, 2011 10:55pm SST
(Reuters Currency News)
•European stocks pare gains after Italy vote
•Berlusconi wins vote, but loses majority. Berlusconi wins budget vote after opposition abstains; results indicate he has lost majority
•Italian 10-year yields tick higher

b) Euro rallies on news Italy's Berlusconi will resign
Details:
NEW YORK | Tue Nov 8, 2011 2:01am SST
(Reuters Currency News)
•The euro jumped versus the dollar in afternoon trade on Tuesday after Italy's president said embattled Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will resign after the approval of new budget law.

B) Forex Trade Position Management
1) Trade

a) Sell Market @1.37842 @11:25:35 PM @ 8-Nov2011 Tue
b) Stopped out @1.3806 @2:48:40 AM @9-Nov2011 Wed -22Pips

C) WHY THIS FOREX TRADE loses?
Reasons:
1) Unexpected news as per A2b- Euro rallies on news Italy's Berlusconi will resign.
2) Late entry + chasing the market
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  • #8,745
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:43am Nov 10, 2011 5:43am
Quoting Gofer Pips


Awhile back, every time FXMindset posted he was at top of page and said so. I guess it is my turn for awhile.
Not surprise
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,746
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:43am Nov 10, 2011 5:43am
Crisis is correct. Crysis is that popular FPS game.

To summarize things up, some countries in EZ are in deep debt thus affect the whole EZ. On the other hands, the US want to keep their USD down to control debt, they do this by printing more money. Am I right?

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Maybe we are talking about differetnt thing . I am talking about rising costs for Italy debt resulting in crisis resulting in bear.

I think you are talking about intraday ECB intervention and lowering yields, resulting in intraday correction.

edit: hmm, dunno if it is crisis or crysis. I will go with crisis.
  • #8,747
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:47am Nov 10, 2011 5:47am
Quoting Blobik
Okay, I have no idea where is she going. Tried 3 times, got burned, about 40-50 pips lost. I tried one last short attempt, either it works or I will admit that I screwed yet another week.
Blobik,

It might be helpful for you if to tell us what your entry strategy is.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,748
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:48am Nov 10, 2011 5:48am
Waiting for the GB Asset purchase facilities and its rate decision
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  • #8,749
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:49am Nov 10, 2011 5:49am
Quoting greenuns
you're totally right, I just drew them for fun...a by product after looking at charts all day, you know when your mind starts to create analysis and not analyzing what is on the chart lol, I bet 99.9% it won't happen like this
LOL If you bet 99.9% against it, then it will probably happen

Seriously though, here is a weekly chart for the E/U
I don't know the exact name of this bearish harmonic pattern. It's not a Gartley but one of the other valid ones.
Once point D is completed, then look for a bearish move.
The falling trend lines drawn on there are possible targets.

I don't really follow them because they work better on equities, not so much on currency pairs.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,750
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:50am Nov 10, 2011 5:50am
Quoting FXMindset
Yeah - How you trade bro - my chart and this moves a bit in mess - so am flat now
I am flat also.
I have a sell limit at 1.3690
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,751
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:55am Nov 10, 2011 5:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am flat also.
I have a sell limit at 1.3690
I am watching this 4H close now - what is your SL bro
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,752
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:56am Nov 10, 2011 5:56am
It's a bearish butterfly. If I bet the farm @ 1.490 (top right wing) then I'll be taking a vacation somewhere now. Well, one can wish.

EDIT: Actually it's either a bearish bat or gartley. My bad.

Quoting PipTrapper
LOL If you bet 99.9% against it, then it will probably happen

Seriously though, here is a weekly chart for the E/U
I don't know the exact name of this bearish harmonic pattern. It's not a Gartley but one of the other valid ones.
Once point D is completed, then look for a bearish move.
The falling trend lines drawn on there are possible targets.

I don't really follow them because they work better on equities, not so much on currency pairs.

.
  • #8,753
  • Nov 10, 2011 5:57am Nov 10, 2011 5:57am
SL on 1.3626 set for +25 pips.
Have set bear trap for any bears that sneak into 1.3670 and 1.3714 zone with tight SL's

Headed to shower and other job.
  • #8,754
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:02am Nov 10, 2011 6:02am
Nothing new... I'm leaving.

Interpretation: People had already priced in a 50/50 rate cut that didn't happen, therefore, it's likely to see EUR and GBP stronger for a bit because of profit taking.
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  • #8,755
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:03am Nov 10, 2011 6:03am
Quoting Pbh
Nothing new... I'm leaving.

Interpretation: People had already priced in a 50/50 rate cut that didn't happen, therefore, it's likely to see EUR and GBP stronger for a bit because of profit taking.
And also 60/40 further QE.
I got the top now

See ya

Pbh
  • #8,756
  • Edited 6:21am Nov 10, 2011 6:03am | Edited 6:21am
Quoting jeff_b
Crisis is correct. Crysis is that popular FPS game.

To summarize things up, some countries in EZ are in deep debt thus affect the whole EZ. On the other hands, the US want to keep their USD down to control debt, they do this by printing more money. Am I right?
I will have to disagree with you.
While it may be in the best interest in the short term to monetize debt, it has serious spiraling and inflationary consequences in the long term.
The US has already done it over and over again and has as such debased the US dollar by 50% and increased the national debt by many times over.
This national debt has to be repaid with interest at some point.
While the US population was, for the most part, dumbed down about how national debt and monetary policy works due to a shroud of secrecy in the US Treasury and Fed, that is no longer the case. Americans are waking up and there is a revolt coming if money printing escalates. There is a limit to how far you can rob the people of their hard earned dollars. Now the Fed has packaged it as QE1, 2, 3 etc but even that illusion has worn off. The end is near and now that the cat is out of the bag, the Fed will have to come up with some very convincing arguments before launching another round of large scale asset purchases. I predict that helicopter Ben will not last at the Fed after the 2012 elections and he know it. So in order to keep his seat, he will now be on his best behavior in the public eye. That means no more QE... at least for now anyway. Besides, he cannot justify it any more. Just look at the US econ data for the last 3 months. It's all pointing up.

ADD: I don't disagree that the US want to print more money. I only disagree that they will. Sorry Jeff
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,757
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:03am Nov 10, 2011 6:03am
Quoting jeff_b
On the other hands, the US want to keep their USD down to control debt, they do this by printing more money. Am I right?
Yes, you are right. Problem is money aint getting to public. It is just sucked out by financial sector, who is sitting on it waiting for crash so it can buy cheap.

Anyway, I am heavily biased for bear mainly because of:
a) Fiscal cuts in US on 23rd of Dec
b) EFSF beeing borrowed empty box filled with promises of borrowed money.
c) All my technical predictions say so.

Edit 4 PT: Why disagree? He didt say it is right to monetize.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,758
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:10am Nov 10, 2011 6:10am
Quoting AaronWard
Blobik,

It might be helpful for you if to tell us what your entry strategy is.
The only valid entry strategy today is buy on pullbacks. This is my opinion. The basis of my opinion is located in the futures performance chats and the fact that there is unfinished business around the 1.3700 level on the charts. When a support is broken, it needs to be retested at some point.

Here is my H4 chart. The required re-tests are
1. 50% fibo
2. 200sma (thick yellow line)
3. Rising channel support (blue solid line)

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,759
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:10am Nov 10, 2011 6:10am
Quoting lovepips
went short at 3617, moved SL to 3600. No TP, will review PA in approx 1hr...
SL hit +17pips..... just monitoring now
patience is a virtue
  • #8,760
  • Nov 10, 2011 6:12am Nov 10, 2011 6:12am
Quoting FXMindset
I am watching this 4H close now - what is your SL bro
No SL mate
I don't need one
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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