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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,661
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:31am Nov 10, 2011 2:31am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys.

Last TP at 3495 hit, total profit 639 pips . I liked this fall. One opened short from 3843 remains for luck. I dont believe this pair will make it back there.

Edit: Btw, you will see some charts from my work soon. Seems I managed to get over our IT security and use https. I still hope they wont kick me out for it, but untill noone complains.....

T
Good morning Tom. Congrats on your 639 pips. It's been a long time coming.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,662
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:35am Nov 10, 2011 2:35am
Quoting FXMindset
If we make a call number without any chart - some newbies will follow it and the worst part is they cant learn anything - In their deepest heart and mind would ask - why this number and how ?? while they suffering their loss
Sorry for interfering into conversation without reading it whole.

Nevertheless, if someone places a trade based on something what is posted here (no matter if it is with or without chart) he kinda deserves to get burned, because it is incredibly stupid.

But I see your point. You are trying to help the kids. Unfortunately, this is not game for kids.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,663
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:37am Nov 10, 2011 2:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning Tom. Congrats on your 639 pips. It's been a long time coming.
Thank you.

Yea, really long fall. I was trying to stay away from PC so I wouldnt close those trades .

Now I am trying to place my lines at chart at work so I can show some S/R I found.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,664
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:44am Nov 10, 2011 2:44am
Quoting The Fool
..... In a few hours the eurozone mouthpieces will be doing their thing, supplying the answers (in this case to the question, "gosh, aren't those bond yields kinda high?"). Expect something along the lines of "fiscal integration." That's what this is all about anyway.
Yes indeed. These things we just witness is just a painfull process of consolidating Europe. Fiscal integration is the first step. I could be the last one, as all we need is economical integration, not social. Unfortunately, you cant separate social integration from economical completely. Well, we shall see what are they up to after another decade.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,665
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:47am Nov 10, 2011 2:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys.

Last TP at 3495 hit, total profit 639 pips . I liked this fall. One opened short from 3843 remains for luck. I dont believe this pair will make it back there.

Edit: Btw, you will see some charts from my work soon. Seems I managed to get over our IT security and use https. I still hope they wont kick me out for it, but untill noone complains.....

T
Wow. That's great, too bad I didn't make at least a half of this value . It seems like a double bottom on low TFs, so maybe we finally get a retrace. Maybe we even form some nice continuation pattern.

BTW, I counted I would need about 2700 pips to retake losses using the lot size I plan to use So, still I would be 20% partying if I made a trade like you... I wonder, If it will be doable in 10 months for me

In about an hour I should be able too get to my MT for a while, so maybe I will be able to say sth more constructive then. But I think I might be lucky this time and get a short (or a scalping short - I would not be surprised, if we made another bearish flag) opportunity.

And I agree, that the downtrend confirmed its strenght, as we didn't even retrace too far, so probably your short "for lucky" will make even more pips. But I think that we made it close to weeks low, or at least I don't think she will sink so much once again this week.

Oh, but, wait, there is still Italian T-Bill auction! 10% yield, 1.30 EUR? (This is just a joke, not a statement backed by any analysis).
  • #8,666
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:52am Nov 10, 2011 2:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Sorry for interfering into conversation without reading it whole.

Nevertheless, if someone places a trade based on something what is posted here (no matter if it is with or without chart) he kinda deserves to get burned, because it is incredibly stupid.

But I see your point. You are trying to help the kids. Unfortunately, this is not game for kids.

T.
Actually Tom, the idea is to share information. It may help someone notice something they overlooked.
Very true nobody should enter, exit or adjust any of their trades based on someone else's calls or ideas. It is as you say unwise to do so, and I would never recommend that.
Regardless of the above, making calls or posting any technical analysis without a chart is a violation of the thread rules. This is not a rule to be fully enforced because there will always be circumstances that may prevent someone from posting attachments. The point is that as long as posters live up to the spirit of sharing with reference, then all is good.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,667
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:56am Nov 10, 2011 2:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys.

Last TP at 3495 hit, total profit 639 pips . I liked this fall. One opened short from 3843 remains for luck. I dont believe this pair will make it back there.

Edit: Btw, you will see some charts from my work soon. Seems I managed to get over our IT security and use https. I still hope they wont kick me out for it, but untill noone complains.....

T
very well done :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #8,668
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:57am Nov 10, 2011 2:57am
Well I could go to party, I planned to make a direct link from FX account to my finances according to 10%. Yet I am quite poor guy, so now I am just saving everything I make here so I have bigger shovel to dig money.

I think I should add, that I have been waiting for this trade for a month (since 4.10. exactly) and was shorting all the time since cca 18.10. So I lost like 200 pips trying to hit it. But it came at last .

Regarding that 2700 pips needed. How about take a deep breath for a week, check strategy once, twice again, and reload?

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,669
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:03am Nov 10, 2011 3:03am
Quoting Blobik
... Oh, but, wait, there is still Italian T-Bill auction! 10% yield, 1.30 EUR? (This is just a joke, not a statement backed by any analysis).
it may be a joke, but it is still in the realm of possibilities.

On a more serious note, I heard on CNBC TV that a new prime minister will be chosen by or during this weekend for both Greece and Italy. So perhaps the market will like that and give us a retrace to 1.37 area.

I have a sell limit order waiting at 1.3690
I chose that number because I am projecting the price on my H4 chart to go back to the 50% fibo of the big move up from the 1.31xx low.

As I have explained many times before, typically, when price reaches 61.8% fibo, it goes back to visit the 50%. The chances of that happening are somewhat reduced if price reaches 78.6%, but then alot of times, from 78.6% and 88.6%, price goes back to re-visit 38.2% or 23.6% before continuing. Like a retrace of a retrace.

Here is my H4 chart with fibo lines drawn. It also shows an outside bar reversal so I believe we are on our way.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,670
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:07am Nov 10, 2011 3:07am
Ofc Idea is to share information. Thats why are we all here and in fact it is my sole purpose of beeing here (Well was at start, I find it sometimes incredibly funny here and kinda like you guys).

Didnt know about that rule, going to read it once more. Anyway, those zones I am always writing are incrediby easy to spot and work very well for me. I just take weekly closing/highs/lows and when price approaches this level, it usually starts ranging around it and creates like 30 pips thick S/R. Everyone should know where weekly close lies even without a chart.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,671
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:12am Nov 10, 2011 3:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ofc Idea is to share information. Thats why are we all here and in fact it is my sole purpose of beeing here (Well was at start, I find it sometimes incredibly funny here and kinda like you guys).

Didnt know about that rule, going to read it once more. Anyway, those zones I am always writing are incrediby easy to spot and work very well for me. I just take weekly closing/highs/lows and when price approaches this level, it usually starts ranging around it and creates like 30 pips thick S/R. Everyone should know where weekly close lies even without...
YOu don't have to upload a chart with every post Tom. Just as long as you do it when you are making new statements. Updates can be just text referring maybe to the chart on the previous post. It helps make the posts more understandable without having to refer to more than one place.

ADD: We like you too Tom
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,672
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:19am Nov 10, 2011 3:19am
ECB Monthly Bulletin
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,673
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:20am Nov 10, 2011 3:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys.

Last TP at 3495 hit, total profit 639 pips . I liked this fall. One opened short from 3843 remains for luck. I dont believe this pair will make it back there.

Edit: Btw, you will see some charts from my work soon. Seems I managed to get over our IT security and use https. I still hope they wont kick me out for it, but untill noone complains.....

T
Well done.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,674
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:20am Nov 10, 2011 3:20am
There we go. We have currently entered ressistance zone. Possible breakpoint here. Hm, and while writing price retraces from the zone without hitting my entry. Ty price.

T.

edit 4 Aaron: Thx man.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,675
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:21am Nov 10, 2011 3:21am
After a wide ranged day a narrower ranged consolidation may not be unexpected and the fib drawn on the right of the chart covers the 357 pip fall from early yesterday.

IF this morning's low holds I would expect the 38% to 61% grey retrace area to be the potential target - absent any new news from Italy , Greece etc. These would give a daily range of ~ 140 or ~190 pips vs the 10 day ADR of 216......TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,676
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:24am Nov 10, 2011 3:24am
There is a little battle going on at the 1.3580 support turned resistance. Neckline of previously confirmed Head/Shoulders pattern.
Here is my H4 chart together with an M15 zoom on the battle zone.

I expect price to break through.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,677
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:36am Nov 10, 2011 3:36am
posted as an observation.
If this pair is to ever really tank south it would take a loss of confidence that CB's and government fiscal policy are sufficent to sustain recovery.

The news out of Europe continues quite dismal. So all the market has left to hang onto is a belief that everything will work out in the end as long as things hold together long enough. But recovery is not assured.

I for one welcome information from super Bears. It is a very hard subject to deal with intellectualy and emotionaly. For it is like living on death row, just not knowing when the date of execution happens.

Charts have answers and given enough time market sentiment is possible to be read off it. What to this person is important about charts is it does provide a picture of how the market responds as events unfold. Other then that S/R predictions, as far as this person is concerned is only relevant when the market is willing to observe all these lines that we draw.

Today we have a take profit bounce off the 1.3500 level and some risk on sentiment that the BOE will lead the economy back from the brink of disaster.

But the ebulance will have to be very solid to negate yesterday. There will be some who sell into the most likely rally. So if price does not run higher really fast, then this is a sign of growing pessimism that the debt crisis in Europe is solvable.

The all important change in sentiment that will move the Euro down is what I think today is all about.

Have a good one.
  • #8,678
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:45am Nov 10, 2011 3:45am
Guys,

I dont know how to draw this on my charts, so I will use words.

What we are probably looking at is a bear flag for the next day or so. And we all know what that means. Wild movements up and down in a rising channel followed by a break out south. Before heading south, it will retrace, retrace and retrace. This means you are better off taking profits earlier rather than later.

At a minimum, it should test the low it reached today at least once. However, all things considered, it will probably break south a couple more times before this particular leg down is finished. So scalping short may be a slightly better option than scalping long.

Of course, now that I have written this, I am going to ignore this and focus on picking scalps on the 5 min chart.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,679
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:54am Nov 10, 2011 3:54am
Quoting AaronWard
Guys,

I dont know how to draw this on my charts, so I will use words.

.... blah blah but good stuff
So now that you have given some good advice to the "Guys", what about the "Gals"? I'm not one of them but there are a few among us.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,680
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:58am Nov 10, 2011 3:58am
Only 90 more pips to my sell limit. Will it make it before the next Italian bond auction?

Italian bond auction results are due in about 30 minutes.. according to CNBC TV

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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