EurAnalysis | Page 426 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #8,501
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:38am Nov 9, 2011 10:38am
Quoting nyfx718
RodMca, I agree I think it needs to retrace, but without knowing how low it can go, didn't want to take a long chance. The 200 period sma is now around 1.38 level on the hour chart. Doubt it will reach up there today. Just gonna look for opportunities to short this thing whenever I see a chance on the pullback up. 3650 actually I feel might be a good place to short and hope to see it around 2pm to 3pm EST today.
If we see 1.3650 I'll set a stop at 1.3635 I reckon we could break above it maybe not 1.38 like you said certainly 1.37 is in my eyes! and 1255 on the sp500. Risk on for now if ya ask me
  • #8,502
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:39am Nov 9, 2011 10:39am
Quoting Pipsforall
Haha, right, I was short the Euro at the market close yesterday, now I'm long the Euro, gonna keep buying the bottoms and selling the tops of these range zones until it stop being profitable. I still think the Euro is going to range till the end of the year and yes, Santa Claus is the primary reason. lol
What makes you think this is a range... and not a trend?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,503
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:42am Nov 9, 2011 10:42am
Quoting AaronWard
The thing about a major movement like this... it will need to return to test its bottom. But how do you know this is really the bottom? You don't. But if you wait until it is up, and then hit it again, your odds of making money are just so much better. You also don't know if it wants to do a 23,38,50,68,78 retracement. So how do you set a target.

But if you are going to scalp against a major trend movement like this, I wouldn't set hard targets. Just take what you can get.

Anyway, good luck.
Well thats exactly the plan Aaron scalp whatever I can and relax again. It is finding it difficult to get above 1.36 but I think it will happen and judging by Ma's now is the time to buy! Cheers!
  • #8,504
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:47am Nov 9, 2011 10:47am
Quoting RodMca
Well thats exactly the plan Aaron scalp whatever I can and relax again. It is finding it difficult to get above 1.36 but I think it will happen and judging by Ma's now is the time to buy! Cheers!
Good luck. Just be careful. All the bears have been sitting in the forum for a couple of months with a complete checklist for a continuation of the downward trend. Every single condition has been met except the daily close. And that is a matter of waiting for it. Further, the fundamentals are aligned. The 7% break of the Italian bond rate was a humpty dumpty moment. Its broken and now they are going to have a very hard time putting it back together.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,505
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:50am Nov 9, 2011 10:50am
Quoting AaronWard
What makes you think this is a range... and not a trend?
I really don't think its the beginning of a new trend, I think the Euro/USD will be in a 1.3650 to 1.4250 range through the end of the year, I've made a lot of pips playing that range, until it finally stops ranging and starts trending, I'll stop buying the bottoms and selling the tops, I'm willing to take a loss here if the range is truly broken and the Euro finally starts to trade on fundamentals, but with Bernanke foaming at the mouth to print more money, and the Euro still a higher yielding currency with the Santa Claus rally and US money managers buying all the dips, I think the Euro will range until the end of the year. But, you never know, maybe the Euro finally moves towards 1.30 and breaks it, but I'll be out of my current Euro long position before that happens. haha
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,506
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:51am Nov 9, 2011 10:51am
Quoting AaronWard
Good luck. Just be careful. All the bears have been sitting in the forum for a couple of months with a complete checklist for a continuation of the downward trend. Every single condition has been met except the daily close. And that is a matter of waiting for it. Further, the fundamentals are aligned. The 7% break of the Italian bond rate was a humpty dumpty moment. Its broken and now they are going to have a very hard time putting it back together.
While I agree that the fundamentals are well on the bears side, I myself have always been bearish on the euro I've been testing a system and its been working so I'll continue to use it (with extreme caution) and hope to catch the retrace take profit and follow it all the way down again! Cheers for the advice though
  • #8,507
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:57am Nov 9, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Pipsforall
I really don't think its the beginning of a new trend, I think the Euro/USD will be in a 1.3650 to 1.4250 range through the end of the year, I've made a lot of pips playing that range, until it finally stops ranging and starts trending, I'll stop buying the bottoms and selling the tops, I'm willing to take a loss here if the range is truly broken and the Euro finally starts to trade on fundamentals, but with Bernanke foaming at the mouth to print more money, and the Euro still a higher yielding currency with the Santa Claus rally and...
Talk Its easy - For next play - Give us a call here complete with your chart - to prove your reability
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,508
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:26am Nov 9, 2011 11:26am
Waiting for the late afternoon ramp up in the stock market. I would be afraid to go short here because any rumor will make the euro shoot up. If s & p can break 1240 then i think we will see another 100 pip drop in euro.
  • #8,509
  • Edited 12:00pm Nov 9, 2011 11:31am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting FXMindset
Talk Its easy - For next play - Give us a call here complete with your chart - to prove your reability
Hey Bro,

H4 Chart again, this time a bit more colorful

The neckline of the dislocated head and shoulders has been pierced but price retreated back above.

The blue shaded areas are supply zones and the yellow is demand.
Note the blue dashed falling trend line which I expect to provide resistance if it retraces up that far.

Price is currently at the 61.8% fibo of the big move up from the 1.31xx low. Typically when price hits the 61.8% fibo for the first time, it usually retraces to the 50% fibo so I expect a retrace before further move down, but the way the market is going, anything can happen.

If we are in a range until the end of the year, today's move has confirmed that any such range will have a lower high and lower low.

I am flat and monitoring only because today's move was based on stupid politics which can be reversed by a single statement from a central banker or a politician.

trade safe.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 18 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,510
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:33am Nov 9, 2011 11:33am
Quoting RodMca
While I agree that the fundamentals are well on the bears side, I myself have always been bearish on the euro I've been testing a system and its been working so I'll continue to use it (with extreme caution) and hope to catch the retrace take profit and follow it all the way down again! Cheers for the advice though
Of course. I am just being grandmotherly because I am trying to stop myself from taking yet another position. I have closed over 40 positions in the last 10 hours and my brain is beginning to hurt. I probably should stop...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,511
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:34am Nov 9, 2011 11:34am
Quoting FXMindset
Talk Its easy - For next play - Give us a call here complete with your chart - to prove your reability
I don't want anyone to follow my trades, just as I don't follow anyone else. If you need to follow someone else's trades, you shouldn't be trading. That's just my opinion, and that's what makes a market, two people with different points of views on the opposite side of each other. But, if I get the time, I'll try to post a chart later, I'm at work now, but I'm long the euro from a current high of 1.36371 and current lowest buy is 1.35674. For the record, I'm a long term Euro bear, but, this is trading afterall, not long term investing, and I'm taking what are in my view high probability trades, of course, you can never win 100%, I only try to win 99%. lol just kidding
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,512
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:36am Nov 9, 2011 11:36am
Quoting RodMca
Long on the euro from 1.36! Everyone probably thinks I'm crazy I think I am too but it has to retrace and thats exactly what its doing 1.3650 possibly 1.37 in sight! Long sp500 too
You are not crazy - But Confident
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,513
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:37am Nov 9, 2011 11:37am
Quoting AaronWard
Of course. I am just being grandmotherly because I am trying to stop myself from taking yet another position. I have closed over 40 positions in the last 10 hours and my brain is beginning to hurt. I probably should stop...
Closed out my SP500 at BE still hanging on to the euro long.. Hanging being the operative word! I didn't get a chance to trade at all today so I'm just testing the water, it seems to be pretty deep not hitting the bottom till 1.3380 but its a soft bottom.........
  • #8,514
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:38am Nov 9, 2011 11:38am
Quoting Pipsforall
I don't want anyone to follow my trades, just as I don't follow anyone else. If you need to follow someone else's trades, you shouldn't be trading. That's just my opinion, and that's what makes a market, two people with different points of views on the opposite side of each other. But, if I get the time, I'll try to post a chart later, I'm at work now, but I'm long the euro from a current high of 1.36371 and current lowest buy is 1.35674.
Nobody would follow your trades - since you made such kind of prediction or perhaps we call it analysis - maybe you can show us the chart - why and how - In this thread we share and learn together - and we give a call Based/Complete with our analysis - FA & TA

In Trading World There is no word of " I Think " Or whatever without FA & TA
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,515
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:46am Nov 9, 2011 11:46am
Quoting FXMindset
You are not crazy - But Confident
My confidence is diminishing by the minute mindset I may have been over ambitious still hanging on in there s/l at 1.3575! Still think 1.3650 at least! But thats not say the bears have lost control!
  • #8,516
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:52am Nov 9, 2011 11:52am
Quoting RodMca
My confidence is diminishing by the minute mindset I may have been over ambitious still hanging on in there s/l at 1.3575! Still think 1.3650 at least! But thats not say the bears have lost control!
I like confidence protected with SL rather than no SL - at least you respect the market
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,517
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:56am Nov 9, 2011 11:56am
Quoting FXMindset
I like confidence protected with SL rather than no SL - at least you respect the market
Still some hope... this is the bull flag on the 1 M chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 76 KB
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,518
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:56am Nov 9, 2011 11:56am
Quoting FXMindset
I like confidence protected with SL rather than no SL = at least you respect the market
I feel like a bull stepping through sleeping bears slowly getting to 1.3650 then bang I'll wake up the bears and there'll be an onslaught of bear attacks! Well If we get to 1.38 before the "Re-Awakening" I'll be very happy! Not likely but I'll lock in pips every 30 or so
  • #8,519
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:07pm Nov 9, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting RodMca
I feel like a bull stepping through sleeping bears slowly getting to 1.3650 then bang I'll wake up the bears and there'll be an onslaught of bear attacks! Well If we get to 1.38 before the "Re-Awakening" I'll be very happy! Not likely but I'll lock in pips every 30 or so
There's a real battle going on at 1.3565/1.3605 Rod. It's the 61.8% fib of the big move up from the 1.31xx lows. This could go either way right now but I don't expect any significant drops now. The bias is more to the upside as far as I see it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,520
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:08pm Nov 9, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting AaronWard
Still some hope... this is the bull flag on the 1 M chart
Yes - We need going thru the orange mark - Strong Support 1.3606 which become resistance now - and it rejected hard many times
While my Daily has form right shoulder sign now - Lets see how thing progress
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
40 traders viewing now