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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,361
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:45am Nov 9, 2011 3:45am
Quoting foto
to paraphrase The Godfather

Bernanke is a pimp, it was always the Bond market


Red is such a nice color for bears.

Futures have gone "Risk OFF" in a big hurry this morning.
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #8,362
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:50am Nov 9, 2011 3:50am
Now we see if this is a complete loss of confidence in the bond market or the CB's can contain it. The CB's are in panic mode so they will act as they still believe in their Sainthood.

edit: This could have been averted if a loss was called a loss way back when.
Now it is on the verge of going systemic
  • #8,363
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:59am Nov 9, 2011 3:59am
Should we expect a race down and jump on the train now or wait? I got in at 1.3785 and got out at 1.3804 :S should have hold it five more fifteen more minutes..

What do you guys think? Is it too late?

EDIT: I can't babysit by the computer all day today and wait for an opportunity.
  • #8,364
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:02am Nov 9, 2011 4:02am
Stupid me, I closed my short from 1.380 @ 1.375 already, now I'm kicking myself over it. 1.37 is holding nicely so far (1M candle closed above it). Will wait for retracement and enter again.
  • #8,365
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:07am Nov 9, 2011 4:07am
you wait at the retracement, and then go short ago?

Quoting jeff_b
Stupid me, I closed my short from 1.380 @ 1.375 already, now I'm kicking myself over it. 1.37 is holding nicely so far (1M candle closed above it). Will wait for retracement and enter again.
  • #8,366
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:09am Nov 9, 2011 4:09am
Quoting jeff_b
Stupid me, I closed my short from 1.380 @ 1.375 already, now I'm kicking myself over it. 1.37 is holding nicely so far (1M candle closed above it). Will wait for retracement and enter again.
looks like this could go down to 3640-50 area
patience is a virtue
  • #8,367
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:09am Nov 9, 2011 4:09am
Can't say for sure but bias is short. May go long, depends on PA.

EDIT: 1.7 dead on the water.

Quoting stevebalmmer
you wait at the retracement, and then go short ago?
  • #8,368
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:14am Nov 9, 2011 4:14am
Since about May, everybody has been waiting for one single event to signal the collapse of the euro... Italian bonds at 7.0. They just made it there about an hour ago.

What is more, the key rising channel line has been breached with a close on both the hourly and 4 hourly. We still need to clear a couple of weakish resistances at about 1.3650 and 1.3615.

But any buy and sell decision will be on your own head.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,369
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:15am Nov 9, 2011 4:15am
Quoting JLinder
Should we expect a race down and jump on the train now or wait? I got in at 1.3785 and got out at 1.3804 :S should have hold it five more fifteen more minutes..

What do you guys think? Is it too late?

EDIT: I can't babysit by the computer all day today and wait for an opportunity.
That's what limit orders are for. Set it and forget it. Enter limit order with SL and TP and go about your business.

Usually best to wait and let it retrace to the origin of the breakout. Chasing a breakout is often suicide.

ECB is in buying Italian and Spanish bonds right now and price is closing in on a fairly tough demand area so we may see a bounce.

Hey PT... Looks like a dislocated shoulder right now LOL

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #8,370
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:17am Nov 9, 2011 4:17am
Part in at 1.3840 Break and larger part at 1.3825.
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  • #8,371
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:18am Nov 9, 2011 4:18am
Hello. This is a great thread. I joined FF so I could participate.

This is my chart. It seems as though we have a break of the bear flag. I will wait for a retest of it from below to deploy some shorts. Otherwise I will wait for a daily close under 1.3650 and short on a pull back.
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  • #8,372
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:18am Nov 9, 2011 4:18am
Posted elsewhere....3700 area holding - for now?.....next support is around Mondays Low at 3682 and below that the 3650 area with last Thusdays lows - that would make todays range ~206 pips.....

The 10 day ADR is 200 pips and the 5 day 204 pips.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,373
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:20am Nov 9, 2011 4:20am
I know chasing breakout is bad but it's sure is tempting. 1.366 may get revisited again, easy 30 pips. Or it may shoots up to 1.39 as well.

Quoting PipKiller
Usually best to wait and let it retrace to the origin of the breakout. Chasing a breakout is often suicide.

ECB is in buying Italian and Spanish bonds right now and price is closing in on a fairly tough demand area so we may see a bounce.

Hey PT... Looks like a dislocated shoulder right now LOL

Attachment
  • #8,374
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:23am Nov 9, 2011 4:23am
Euro/Aud and Euro/Cad are not really showing strength. So that is an indication that this is not a defaltionary event.

May also be the CB's of those countries are intervening to stabilize the Euro.

Very hard to make that call if not impossible.
  • #8,375
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:31am Nov 9, 2011 4:31am
New German ECB employee.

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #8,376
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:34am Nov 9, 2011 4:34am
To all of you who are asking if you should jump in now, allow me to share my opinion. Note that this is my opinion and you should only trade on your own comfort levels.

One thing I never do is jump in with a sell position on a swing low. The idea is to sell the highs in a bear market and buy the lows in a bull market.

One of the technical rules which I have proven works again and again is that price always returns to the mean. So, if price falls unexpectedly and I miss the train (like I did this morning just like some of you), I then wait for a retrace to 50% or preferably 61.8% of the move down. Then I enter cautiously based on confirmation through price action and the underlying fundamentals.

So in a nutshell, according to my rules, now is not the time to go short. The time to go short was at 1.3840. But since I missed that because I was waiting for 1.3920, if it keeps going down and breaks the low of the bear flag (1.3600 area), then I will wait for a retrace and open a short at that time.

I have attached my H4 chart with the range limits drawn (blue horizontal lines). The upper line is at 1.3843 and the lower line is 1.3605. Since the lower line has not yet been breached, price could very well still head up again, so I will not assume a downtrend until price has broken below 1.3605 significantly and then return to test the same 1.3605 as resistance and fail.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,377
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:35am Nov 9, 2011 4:35am
Does anybody have a feed for the Italian bond market?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,378
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:40am Nov 9, 2011 4:40am
3666 - 3689 is a heavy retracement zone. But you probably all know it.

No real time link, I dont care about real time. Overall daily summary of 10y bonds and 5y CDS is here.

http://workforall.net/CDS-Credit-default-Swaps.html

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #8,379
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:43am Nov 9, 2011 4:43am
I would like to echo this sentiment also. Unless you have a crystal ball and you know the exact floor, don't go short right now.

@PT: if you think there will be a retracement, would you buy? Note I'm not asking for trade confirm or something, just normal technique. Usually I don't take the retracement because that's going against the trend, a trade with low R:R rate. What's your opinion?

Quoting PipTrapper
To all of you who are asking if you should jump in now, allow me to share my opinion. Note that this is my opinion and you should only trade on your own comfort levels.

One thing I never do is jump in with a sell position on a swing low. The idea is to sell the highs in a bear market and buy the lows in a bull market.

One of the technical rules which I have proven works again and again is that price always returns to the mean. So, if price falls unexpectedly and I miss the train (like I did this morning just like some of you), I then wait for...
  • #8,380
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:43am Nov 9, 2011 4:43am
It just touched H4 demand zone, be careful with your shorts now. Let's see how price reacts in there, it's quite a big zone (60 pips wide).
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