LJ Forex Group | Page 38 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

JPY Group - Best Group to Trade 60 replies

Your experience with Forex.com [GAIN Capital Group, LLC] 37 replies

Forex Techniques Development Group 24 replies

FOREX, Robert Gray, FXLQ, and Nfa/ctfc... PLEASE REPOST IN EVERY GROUP 0 replies

Attachments: LJ Forex Group
Exit Attachments

LJ Forex Group

  • #741
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:26am Nov 7, 2011 2:26am
Quoting lovejoy80
New Blog post following various requests to explain my reasoning behind my set of UJ trades.

Those who can follow the reasoning should realise that there is another pair with similar dynamics but more longer term - I've been buying this pair fairly aggressively lately.
A case of technicals and fundamentals fully aligned.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ECHF.png Size: 23 KB
  • #742
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:13am Nov 8, 2011 2:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
There was no trigger bar - it was a positional touch trade - a swing trade, based on the technical location I mentioned previously combined with a conviction that this area would hold as resistance given how price has been moving all summer on the USD pairs. The risk/reward was attractive too.

Here was my original entry and SL.
My S/R level was a bit higher, could be that I am too picky with the level ... but it's a more of a case of learning the conviction you had. Would appreciate any pointers here. And when you say the risk/reward is attractive, where did you expect price to got to?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_daily.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #743
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:20am Nov 8, 2011 2:20am
Quoting lovejoy80
A case of technicals and fundamentals fully aligned.
Another great trade, LJ. And the blog post is brilliant, thank you for sharing your wisdom.
  • #744
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:12am Nov 8, 2011 11:12am
Quoting supra
My S/R level was a bit higher, could be that I am too picky with the level ... but it's a more of a case of learning the conviction you had. Would appreciate any pointers here. And when you say the risk/reward is attractive, where did you expect price to got to?
I included the highs marked by the arrows in your chart below and hence I was just looking at the whole area - because it's more of a positional trade rather than a classical touch trade I'm not overly picky on fine tuning the resistance area - all I know is that price is at the top of the range - an area it hadn't managed to break it even with the large moves we've seen and given the nature of the current market i.e. the majors are choppy and trend are very short lived i.e. price reverses any attempts to develop a trend quickly it was a trade that for me was worth some risk exposure.

In terms of attractive %R have a look at your monthly chart and tell me why it was attractive - if this range was going to hold where did price have the potential to move down to?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #745
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:18am Nov 8, 2011 11:18am
Quoting supra
Another great trade, LJ. And the blog post is brilliant, thank you for sharing your wisdom.
Thanks, I'm glad you found it useful - I might do one on the ECHF trade in due course explaining the reasoning in more detail.

I've take some profit on this trade today - I am as exposed to this pair as I want to be, but there is a potential TT setup if price moves lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ECHF.png Size: 27 KB
  • #746
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:25am Nov 8, 2011 11:25am
First trade of the week today - 2 long trades on GU - just been following this pair closely given the current range and location of price - watching price move and acting on the information it presented.

On reflection I think I was a bit premature moving the SL up on my 1st trade but never mind 3.6% gained isn't so bad.

Right, off to see how good MW3 is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu25.png Size: 27 KB
  • #747
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:46pm Nov 8, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting lovejoy80
... all I know is that price is at the top of the range - an area it hadn't managed to break it even with the large moves we've seen and given the nature of the current market i.e. the majors are choppy and trend are very short lived i.e. price reverses any attempts to develop a trend quickly it was a trade that for me was worth some risk exposure.
Thank you for your explanations. Indeed it's a strong S/R level, it's just that I'd need a bar confirmation of some sort to take a short there. Am learning hard on how to read the markets like you do.

Quoting lovejoy80
In terms of attractive %R have a look at your monthly chart and tell me why it was attractive - if this range was going to hold where did price have the potential to move down to?
Attached is my monthly chart with possible TP levels. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_monthly.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #748
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:55pm Nov 8, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks, I'm glad you found it useful - I might do one on the ECHF trade in due course explaining the reasoning in more detail.
Yes, please

Quoting lovejoy80
I've take some profit on this trade today - I am as exposed to this pair as I want to be, but there is a potential TT setup if price moves lower.
I didn't see this set-up until you mention it, but I had a buy limit on its sibling.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1109 gbpchf h4.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #749
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:16am Nov 9, 2011 12:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
First trade of the week today - 2 long trades on GU - just been following this pair closely given the current range and location of price - watching price move and acting on the information it presented.
Regarding your second entry, was it because you were expecting a follow though after price broke out the 1.6065 resistance level? Do you mind advising where you had your initial SLs for both entries?

Quoting lovejoy80
On reflection I think I was a bit premature moving the SL up on my 1st trade but never mind 3.6% gained isn't so bad.
Would take such gain anytime given the price fluctuations...
  • #750
  • Nov 9, 2011 1:30am Nov 9, 2011 1:30am
Quote
Attached is my monthly chart with possible TP levels. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Yep - they are correct and price hit the lower of the two levels - hence why the risk/reward was attractive.
  • #751
  • Nov 9, 2011 1:33am Nov 9, 2011 1:33am
Quote
Yes, please

Will get a blog post uploaded before the end of the week.



Quote
I didn't see this set-up until you mention it, but I had a buy limit on its sibling.

Looks like it has potential to me.
  • #752
  • Nov 9, 2011 1:41am Nov 9, 2011 1:41am
Quote
Regarding your second entry, was it because you were expecting a follow though after price broke out the 1.6065 resistance level? Do you mind advising where you had your initial SLs for both entries?

Price closed above the range forming a BUOB in the process on the 4HR TF - this is a good technical sign that price was heading up to the FLR @ the 1.6100 area.

This was my forum post at the time (note: it's supposed to say Price has now... instead of Price has not...)

SL for first entry was 1.6026, second entry 1.6046.

BTW is it any surprise that price fell from 1.6130 or that price just bounced from 1.6065 - this is what price action is really about - pulling various methods together that tell you a story about what price is most likely to do next - if you can do that then the story becomes very predictable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU3.png Size: 60 KB
  • #753
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:03am Nov 9, 2011 3:03am
Quoting lovejoy80
SL for first entry was 1.6026, second entry 1.6046.
The low of the bar you pointed out for the second entry SL is 1.6051, while your SL was 1.6046. Assuming spread of 2 pips, then your allowance is only 3 pips. Is this your normal pips allowance?

Quoting lovejoy80
BTW is it any surprise that price fell from 1.6130 or that price just bounced from 1.6065 - this is what price action is really about - pulling various methods together that tell you a story about what price is most likely to do next - if you can do that then the story becomes very predictable
It never ceases to amaze me how could they be so predictable and yet most of the time I'd second-guess them. When answering the previous post, I noticed there was a potential FTB but, alas, didn't act on it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #754
  • Nov 9, 2011 3:18am Nov 9, 2011 3:18am
Quote
The low of the bar you pointed out for the second entry SL is 1.6051, while your SL was 1.6046. Assuming spread of 2 pips, then your allowance is only 3 pips. Is this your normal pips allowance?

Well the allowance is really 5 pips because of course I don't pay the spread in this case i.e. I'm buying and thus if price came down to hit a SL I'm selling and as that bar low represents the sell price my SL is actually 5 pips below the previous bar low.

Yes - I find the bar I want to put my SL behind and allow a 3-5 pip buffer most of the time - this will increase as the TF I'm trading increases etc.

Quote
It never ceases to amaze me how could they be so predictable and yet most of the time I'd second-guess them. When answering the previous post, I noticed there was a potential FTB but, alas, didn't act on it.

Yep - that's what I meant when I said
Quote
BTW is it any surprise that price fell from 1.6130 or that price just bounced from 1.6065

Being able to act without second guessing comes with confidence - as confidence increases the fear goes away - how do you build confidence - practice, practice, practice
  • #755
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:29am Nov 10, 2011 12:29am
Quoting lovejoy80
Being able to act without second guessing comes with confidence - as confidence increases the fear goes away - how do you build confidence - practice, practice, practice
Advice duly noted and heeded, my kind mentor.

I was looking back at your first entry on this GBP/USD long trade. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe it was a TT based on a S/R level and 50% fib confluence as per attached chart. If you don't mind, I have a number of questions:

1. If I am not mistaken you require some "swing space" to qualify such set-up. On this one, to me the space (highlighted with a light blue circle) seems a bit lacking as price rose but was trading in a narrow band instead of a clear "up-then-down" manner. Were you being aggressive then or am I being too picky?

2. I tend to view the validity of an S/R as being lowered when there is some kind of indecisive price actions crisscrossing here and there as it was in this case (highlighted by the khaki rectangles) just prior to your entry. Please let me have your thoughts on this.

3. You mentioned that you took a full 2% risk on the second entry. Please advise how much did you risk on the first?

Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #756
  • Nov 10, 2011 2:43am Nov 10, 2011 2:43am
Quote
I was looking back at your first entry on this GBP/USD long trade. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe it was a TT based on a S/R level and 50% fib confluence as per attached chart. If you don't mind, I have a number of questions:

No it was not a TT, I took the trade based on information price had presented to me across multiple TF's combined with 'correlated confluence' with EP - this information suggested that a breakout was more likely and thus I decided that the probabilities were stacked in my favour enough for me to want to risk 1% on the trade.

This is essentially what price action trading is all about, it's not merely looking for a few different types of bars off S/R areas, it's about using various methods to read what price is telling us - where it is more likely to be heading in the future - it's something that seems lost on most people given the day to day comments you read on public forums.

I'll share some charts later - not feeling too great today so back off to bed for a bit.
  • #757
  • Nov 10, 2011 3:00am Nov 10, 2011 3:00am
Quoting lovejoy80
I'll share some charts later - not feeling too great today so back off to bed for a bit.
Take your time, LJ. Your health matters most, get well soon.
  • #758
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:38pm Nov 10, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting lovejoy80
No it was not a TT, I took the trade based on information price had presented to me across multiple TF's combined with 'correlated confluence' with EP - this information suggested that a breakout was more likely and thus I decided that the probabilities were stacked in my favour enough for me to want to risk 1% on the trade.

This is essentially what price action trading is all about, it's not merely looking for a few different types of bars off S/R areas, it's about [u][b]using various methods to read what price is telling us -...
Reasoning behind the GU first position can be found here
  • #759
  • Nov 10, 2011 11:28pm Nov 10, 2011 11:28pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Reasoning behind the GU first position can be found here
That was really an in-depth analysis incorporating various variables as you said. Most appreciated, LJ.

If you have the time, I would be grateful if you could help with a question in my previous post below:
Quoting supra
2. I tend to view the validity of an S/R as being lowered when there is some kind of indecisive price actions crisscrossing here and there as it was in this case (highlighted by the khaki rectangles) just prior to your entry. Please let me have your thoughts on this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #760
  • Nov 11, 2011 2:14am Nov 11, 2011 2:14am
Hi LJ,

I thought you may find this interesting. S&P500 price structure is very similar to the pre-crash 2008 pa. The environment is not so much different aswell so it might end up as good short opportunity imo..... Worth to keep an eye on at least. All the best!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP.GIF Size: 34 KB
0 traders viewing now