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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,981
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:52am Nov 7, 2011 4:52am
Quoting JR97
Nice. They key concept you pointed out is that cycle research is highly individualized. I try and highlight that concept when I get asked about my cycle research/trading.

I've been following this series of cycles on the Dow most of the year. I've got a buddy who is a hedge fund manager and he thought I was definitely talking mumbo jumbo every time I told him to expect a turn because no one can "time" the market. He still doesn't believe it's possible but now he asks with a bit more interest than just to laugh at me.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...22%2023.45.gif...

For continuity purposes because people have asked about it. Update:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...07%2003.47.gif
  • #7,982
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:54am Nov 7, 2011 4:54am
Possible false break of trendline support.

Is it time for a 200 pip face ripping rally to the other side of the channel now
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,983
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:23am Nov 7, 2011 5:23am
PK,

Like your analogy.

Is it time for a 200 pip face ripping rally to the other side of the channel now
  • #7,984
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:29am Nov 7, 2011 5:29am
First retest of zone - 3784 - 3793 and rejected well. Lets wait for second retest reaction.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,985
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:43am Nov 7, 2011 5:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
First retest of zone - 3784 - 3793 and rejected well. Lets wait for second retest reaction.
1.3782 is the daily pivot line. Take note that although it was breached (by 1 or 2 pips), not even an M1 candle managed to close above it.
It will probably not be re-tested.
However, If it does re-test and price manages to close an H1 candle above that line, then we may have a bull day. If so, will we then create that right shoulder I've been waiting for?

Anyway, I guess we will have to wait and see.
In the meantime, here is an updated calendar of EuroCrisis events.

• Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers. EFSF issuance expected within two weeks of this date. IMF/EU officials start second quarterly evaluation of Portugal’s bailout program implementation. Should also last two weeks.
• Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
• Thursday, Nov. 10: Italian T-bill auction.
• Friday, Nov. 11: EUR2.0 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
• Monday, Nov. 14: Italian bond auction.
• Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
• Wednesday, Nov. 16: Portuguese T-bill auction.
• Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.
• Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature.
• Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.
• Thursday, Nov. 24: General strike in Portugal.
• Friday, Nov. 25: Italian T-bill/zero coupon bond auction.
• Tuesday, Nov. 29: Italian bond auction. Final Portuguese budget vote.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,986
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:47am Nov 7, 2011 5:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3782 is the daily pivot line.
I have Daily Pivot at 3785.

If it wont be retested, I am selling immediately.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,987
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:50am Nov 7, 2011 5:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have Daily Pivot at 3785.

If it wont be retested, I am selling immediately.
I am going to wait until NY open.
There are loads of trigger happy fund managers itching to get their hands on some good quality equities at a discount before year end.
Until I see a complete derailment of the correlation between the Euro and other risk assets, I remain cautious to short this pair on a risk-on day.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,988
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:52am Nov 7, 2011 5:52am
If we're talking about technical analysis, I drew that downtrend trendline about a week ago, many days before any candle would touch it

Got a long, SL at BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,989
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:53am Nov 7, 2011 5:53am
I'm a bit ignorant about how a candle is calculated.

Let's take for example a 1H candle, the open is the the price @ 1.00AM (for example) and the close is at 2.00AM, 1 hr later, am I right?

So when someone is saying a 1H candle closed above a certain price, that just means after 1H, the price is @ a certain level right? Does it make a difference if the whole time the price stays way below that level and at the last minute it surges up vs it stays up the whole time higher than that particular S/R level?

Quoting PipTrapper
1.3782 is the daily pivot line. Take note that although it was breached (by 1 or 2 pips), not even an M1 candle managed to close above it.
It will probably not be re-tested.
However, If it does re-test and price manages to close an H1 candle above that line, then we may have a bull day. If so, will we then create that right shoulder I've been waiting for?

Anyway, I guess we will have to wait and see.
In the meantime, here is an updated calendar of EuroCrisis events.

• Monday, Nov. 7: Meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers. EFSF issuance...
  • #7,990
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:55am Nov 7, 2011 5:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am going to wait until NY open.
There are loads of trigger happy fund managers itching to get their hands on some good quality equities at a discount before year end.
Until I see a complete derailment of the correlation between the Euro and other risk assets, I remain cautious to short this pair on a risk-on day.
Ok, so I will expand here . I am about to enter two trades. 1st TP is again at 3666 -368 zone. Second is babysitting one. I am still afraid of that short squeeze, but just dont want to miss the train. Sellof may start very soon.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,991
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:57am Nov 7, 2011 5:57am
Quoting jeff_b
I'm a bit ignorant about how a candle is calculated...
Yes, you are right.

And yes it makes a difference since loads of traders are watching closing prices.

Edit: especially when it comes to weekly and daily closing.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,992
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:59am Nov 7, 2011 5:59am
Quoting jeff_b
I'm a bit ignorant about how a candle is calculated.

Let's take for example a 1H candle, the open is the the price @ 1.00AM (for example) and the close is at 2.00AM, 1 hr later, am I right?

So when someone is saying a 1H candle closed above a certain price, that just means after 1H, the price is @ a certain level right? Does it make a difference if the whole time the price stays way below that level and at the last minute it surges up vs it stays up the whole time higher than that particular S/R level?
Nope. No significant difference. If the candle closes above the line just at the last minute and stayed below for 59 minutes, it is still a close above the line.
However, how the next candle reacts makes a difference. If it turns around and heads back down, then depending on price action, it could be a reversal.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,993
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:59am Nov 7, 2011 5:59am
Closed +80 pips from the bounce off the bottom of the channel.

Looking for a swing trade short. Limit order short placed targeting the 50% fib and fresh virgin supply level above on the 60 minute.

L 1.3922
SL 1.3966
T1 1.3610 demand level on the 60 minute
T2 1.2910 lower demand level on the weekly. Probably too agressive but I want to let it run as much as she can. Will trail manually and adjust as necessary.
Risk 2%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60.jpg Size: 135 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,994
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:04am Nov 7, 2011 6:04am
Apparently, along with the hopium that Merkel was pumping up in the market, it was a rumor that Berlusconi was going to resign that gave the markets a boost.

Now another news flash came out on CNBC TV that an Italian official denies the rumor and Berlusconi has no intention of resigning.

Now the markets fall again.

Obviously he is not a popular guy.

ADD: I wonder how the US Dollar would react if there was a rumor that OhBummer was going to resign.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,995
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:06am Nov 7, 2011 6:06am
There is no way for mafioso to resign without a very long fight.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,996
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:11am Nov 7, 2011 6:11am
I think that there would be difference, will do more reading on this.

On topic, it seems the daily pivot won't be tested for a while. I'll put a sell limit and just go to bed instead. Cheers.

EDIT: if Mr. OhBummer does resign, I'll buy USD.

Quoting PipTrapper
Nope. No significant difference. If the candle closes above the line just at the last minute and stayed below for 59 minutes, it is still a close above the line.
However, how the next candle reacts makes a difference. If it turns around and heads back down, then depending on price action, it could be a reversal.
  • #7,997
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:12am Nov 7, 2011 6:12am
Quoting jeff_b
On topic, it seems the daily pivot won't be tested for a while. I'll put a sell limit and just go to bed instead. Cheers.
Make the sell limit time limited. NY starts soon.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,998
  • Edited 6:24am Nov 7, 2011 6:13am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Apparently, along with the hopium that Merkel was pumping up in the market, it was a rumor that Berlusconi was going to resign that gave the markets a boost.

Now another news flash came out on CNBC TV that an Italian official denies the rumor and Berlusconi has no intention of resigning.

Now the markets fall again.

Obviously he is not a popular guy.

ADD: I wonder how the US Dollar would react if there was a rumor that OhBummer was going to resign.
Honestly, I think somebody is up to a bit of michief. This rumor had the effect of pasting bullish reversals on almost all the charts just in time for the NY open. But lets wait and see.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,999
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:21am Nov 7, 2011 6:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
• Tuesday, Nov. 8: EU finance ministers meeting. Greek T-bill auction.
• Tuesday, Nov. 15: Greek T-bill auction.
They are selling expensive toilet paper!
  • #8,000
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:21am Nov 7, 2011 6:21am
Have just done so. I forgot NY starts later than usual because of DST. Thanks.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Make the sell limit time limited. NY starts soon.
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