EurAnalysis | Page 399 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #7,961
  • Edited 3:58am Nov 7, 2011 3:41am | Edited 3:58am
Europe's Sentix Investor Confidence index hits the lowest level since July 2009 at -21.2%

I believe things will get much worse before they get better.

According to the Finnish PM, there is a very real risk of default which has not been priced in Euro area debt.
Also Italy's bond yield has hit a high of 6.58%

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: events.jpg Size: 112 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,962
  • Nov 7, 2011 3:58am Nov 7, 2011 3:58am
Btw, Berlusconi is about to get his ass spanked first, as Italian economy is huge, but Portugal has 10 year bonds IR @ 12% and public debt @ 100% GDP. Very sustainable indeed. Luckily, Portugal is lesser economy.

Link to comparision of 10 year bonds:
http://workforall.net/CDS-Credit-default-Swaps.html

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,963
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:08am Nov 7, 2011 4:08am
EuroZone Retail sales down -0.7% vs the expected flat line 0.0%

This is not shaping up to be a good day for Europe.

As I type I see price has penetrated the H4 rising channel support and the futures performance chart is not looking that great either.

The only bit of news left now is the German Industrial Production figure in about an hour from now. I'm not too hopeful that we're going to get a good number out of this either.

ADD: With these kinds of numbers, I really don't see how Mer-k-ozy is going to convince anyone to help boost the EFSF.
Repeat after me... European Fictitious Stability Farce

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Futures.jpg Size: 81 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,964
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:14am Nov 7, 2011 4:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
EuroZone Retail sales down -0.7% vs the expected flat line 0.0%

This is not shaping up to be a good day for Europe.

As I type I see price has penetrated the H4 rising channel support and the futures performance chart is not looking that great either.

The only bit of news left now is the German Industrial Production figure in about an hour from now. I'm not too hopeful that we're going to get a good number out of this either.

ADD: With these kinds of numbers, I really don't see how Mer-k-ozy is going to...
Price is down by about 140 pips from open. So do you guys think that when the NY opens the Americans will say "Oh boy, its so cheap"?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,965
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:17am Nov 7, 2011 4:17am
Quoting AaronWard
Price is down by about 140 pips from open. So do you guys think that when the NY opens the Americans will say "Oh boy, its so cheap"?
Who knows, I really dont get what are those mongrels up to. It seems there are still some hippies running on hopium there.

And short squeeze is still a valid option. Tricky.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,966
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:20am Nov 7, 2011 4:20am
I am waiting for a retracement from 3666 - 3689 zone. This zone already proved as a heavy ressistance. Will be waiting for a rebounce to 3784 - 3794 and sign of bulls weakness to enter.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,967
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:22am Nov 7, 2011 4:22am
Quoting AaronWard
Price is down by about 140 pips from open. So do you guys think that when the NY opens the Americans will say "Oh boy, its so cheap"?
Most likely yes as long as no additional bad news comes out of Europe.

Now since the market fell this morning instead of rising to my desired entry point, in line with my sentiment that "When the the market turns into a meat grinder, I make hamburger", over and above the weekend short I took on Friday at 1.37676, I have added another short position at 1.37389.
So far I have an aggregate gain of +125 pips.
I'm a happy dude
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m5.gif Size: 26 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,968
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:25am Nov 7, 2011 4:25am
Have just went long, SL @ 1.362, TP @ 1.382. Went short earlier @ 1.377 but the price was ranging hard so I TP @ 0.0001 pip Missed the whole train south.

The rising channel is broken, now what?
  • #7,969
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:25am Nov 7, 2011 4:25am
Quoting AaronWard
Price is down by about 140 pips from open. So do you guys think that when the NY opens the Americans will say "Oh boy, its so cheap"?
If she gets much cheaper they will have to stamp "Made in China" on them and sell them in Walmart.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,970
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:27am Nov 7, 2011 4:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Most likely yes as long as no additional bad news comes out of Europe.

Now since the market fell this morning instead of rising to my desired entry point, in line with my sentiment that "When the the market turns into a meat grinder, I make hamburger", over and above the weekend short I took on Friday at 1.37676, I have added another short position at 1.37389.
So far I have an aggregate gain of +125 pips.
I'm a happy dude
Congratz. I have no doubt that the punning, poetry and low humor is about to start.

I'm looking forward to it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,971
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:29am Nov 7, 2011 4:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Who knows, I really dont get what are those mongrels up to. It seems there are still some hippies running on hopium there.

And short squeeze is still a valid option. Tricky.
You need to understand that Americans will dump their own currency at the slightest provocation. You see, they have just way too much of it and they know, deep down, that is really isn't worth all that much.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,972
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:30am Nov 7, 2011 4:30am
Quoting PipKiller
If she gets much cheaper they will have to stamp "Made in China" ...
Man I just love your posts.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,973
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:34am Nov 7, 2011 4:34am
Quoting AaronWard
You need to understand that Americans will dump their own currency at the slightest provocation. You see, they have just way too much of it and they know, deep down, that is really isn't worth all that much.
I just dont know. Last time, when Bernanke was speaking, there was no sign of QE, yet they were selling USD anyway in expectation of QE. Now, when PK brought my attention US fiscal cuts @ 23rd Dec, they should be preparing to buy it. Yet they aint. But they will soon. Down with this pair I say.

Anyway, beware of that short squeeze.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,974
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:34am Nov 7, 2011 4:34am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Closed down the 1.3770 at BE

Took off rest and snagged total of 238 pips today. Time to

If this gaps up a good short opportunity, if gaps down, good short on close of gap..............Still looking for that 1.3925 right shoulder!

Right now I'm looking for a big score on a short due to fundies, but a scalping long pays just the same!




Opened large short at 23.21 gmt yesterday at 1.3806 to close gap,
and now waiting for confirmation of bear flag break and bearish continuation.
30 minutes on hourly and 1 hour 30 minutes on 4H.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BEAR_FLAG_BREAK.png Size: 65 KB
  • #7,975
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:37am Nov 7, 2011 4:37am
First retest of the 3666 - 3684 zone and rejected well.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,976
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:39am Nov 7, 2011 4:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I just dont know. Last time, when Bernanke was speaking, there was no sign of QE, yet they were selling USD anyway in expectation of QE. Now, when PK brought my attention US fiscal cuts @ 23rd Dec, they should be preparing to buy it. Yet they aint. But they will soon. Down with this pair I say.

Anyway, beware of that short squeeze.
I get the impression that the USD is trying to stage a breakout on multiple fronts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,977
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:39am Nov 7, 2011 4:39am
I can see you mentor. You have been offline for a long time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ....png Size: 8 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,978
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:48am Nov 7, 2011 4:48am
I'm out.

Tweezer reversal bars on M15 and Merkel is pumping up the hopium again.
Price has re-entered the channel and equities look like they are attempting a recovery.

+86 pips today so far

Now I stay flat until US open.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m15.gif Size: 18 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,979
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:48am Nov 7, 2011 4:48am
Have just TP my long, too risky for my taste. I'll wait for more bear signs before going short. You guys keep going short kinda move me a bit too.
  • #7,980
  • Nov 7, 2011 4:49am Nov 7, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I can see you mentor. You have been offline for a long time.
Autumn break last week mate ...just catching up today with charts, FA and threads.

Lots of new developments and data, especially in the short/mid term FA side. On the euro, EZ debt circus continue (nothing new there) but more important is the macro numbers have marked a turning divergence point.

EZ negative growth is almost a done deal for this quarter while the US macro numbers will mark a bottom. Interest rates differentials after the ECB cut, put a hard stop on any further levels on the top side (above 1.428x) and without a new panic sell on the debt front swinging the range is the name of the game until years end...

I hope you have a good week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
59 traders viewing now