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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,861
  • Nov 6, 2011 9:10am Nov 6, 2011 9:10am
Howdy folks.
Daily PA still trapped between upper and lower hidden gap pip magnets for four consecutive days meaning current bias is still indecisive.
I am betting on a stronger south pole since H4 average price candle shows a rejection of range bar high and price closing below h4 chop zone.

Imho if price gapped below 3740..we will see a sell-off to 356x. Now we wait.
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  • #7,862
  • Edited 9:39am Nov 6, 2011 9:23am | Edited 9:39am
Chart says more then thousand words. Not going to speculate where it will go and don't really care at the moment, no one knows. White areas are different TF S or D's.

H4:
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  • #7,863
  • Nov 6, 2011 9:28am Nov 6, 2011 9:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's futures. More interested in spot market.
Here's a link to a graph. Easier to read.
PT

I am looking at futures for a couple of reasons. First, it gives an indication of where the market will go. It does this for a couple of reasons. First it is built into most predictive models. Second, it shows that at some time in the future somebody needs to purchase that amount of currency and at any time it is less than this price, they can conduct their trade profitably.

The second reason is that somebody in the news room (Scrat) was busy saying that the euro had a date with 1.41. This was back when it was at 1.35, before it found its bottom at 1.3150. His reasons had to do with volume on a particular candle and the COT report. I don't typically take predictions seriously -- unless they come true.

So it makes some sense for me to figure this out.

Also, your graph does not seem to have commercial interest and this is about 70% of the market according to my table. Am I missing something? Commercial buyers really just want to be able to conduct their business without being killed by the exchange rate.

This would imply that despite the overwhelmingly negative outlook of speculative investors, the bulk of the market, the commercial portion, thinks that the current price is just about right. Which would give me a much less bearish outlook on the euro.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,864
  • Edited 10:32am Nov 6, 2011 10:21am | Edited 10:32am
Quoting AaronWard
PT


Also, your graph does not seem to have commercial interest and this is about 70% of the market according to my table. Am I missing something? Commercial buyers really just want to be able to conduct their business without being killed by the exchange rate.
http://www.timingcharts.com/

Found this link to COT but don't really know how to read it.
  • #7,865
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:07am Nov 6, 2011 11:07am
George Papandreou will announce his resignation, that's interesting
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #7,866
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:49am Nov 6, 2011 11:49am
Quoting AaronWard
PT

I am looking at futures for a couple of reasons. First, it gives an indication of where the market will go. It does this for a couple of reasons. First it is built into most predictive models. Second, it shows that at some time in the future somebody needs to purchase that amount of currency and at any time it is less than this price, they can conduct their trade profitably.

The second reason is that somebody in the news room (Scrat) was busy saying that the euro had a date with 1.41. This was back when it was at 1.35, before it...
I am not sure what scrat was referring to but I do remember the post.
If you figure it out, please share I hope it's not a red herring.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,867
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:55am Nov 6, 2011 11:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
"Total Open Interest" is the total number of contracts currently open on the specified date.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1cwtp6iiX
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,868
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:56am Nov 6, 2011 11:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am not sure what scrat was referring to but I do remember the post.
If you figure it out, please share I hope it's not a red herring.
He seemed to be working off of 3 points.

1. A maximum volume candle
2. The tendency for markets to return to S/R which they originally sliced through
3. COT reports, with an imbalance of longs to shorts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,869
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:57am Nov 6, 2011 11:57am
Quoting fxrising
George Papandreou will announce his resignation, that's interesting

Don't forget the big "IF" in that statement

Papandreou will announce his resignation "IF" there is an agreement for a coalition government.

Everything I have seen so far in the news today says both sides of the government are still arguing over everything and no deal has been reached yet.

Greece's Papandreou Agrees to Resign When Deal Is Done
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,870
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:08pm Nov 6, 2011 12:08pm
Euro Oh Euro - Let you Papa USD have fun now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,871
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:08pm Nov 6, 2011 12:08pm
Aaa, slow down I wanted to hop in. Retracement pls.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,872
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:16pm Nov 6, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting PipKiller
Don't forget the big "IF" in that statement
IF 100's of billions of euros are at stake, everybody plays ball sooner or later......sooner prolly
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,873
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:17pm Nov 6, 2011 12:17pm
Fool stop messing in my head. I am thinking about you while listening to Elvis .

Inserted Video
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,874
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:19pm Nov 6, 2011 12:19pm
Who wants to know - Who wants to Know
Wants Something Good ?
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,875
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:25pm Nov 6, 2011 12:25pm
Hi guys, are you short from Friday ? Yes, I am. 1,37602.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=12h

Good luck for all, who are short!
  • #7,876
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:27pm Nov 6, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting AaronWard
He seemed to be working off of 3 points.

1. A maximum volume candle
2. The tendency for markets to return to S/R which they originally sliced through
3. COT reports, with an imbalance of longs to shorts.
Okay this is the way I understand things. (feel free to question any of the following. I love a good challenge as we may both learn something new)

For #1, a maximum volume candle has different impact in different time frames, so I am not able to comment on that one as I don't know what time frame he is referring to and on which specific candle or range of candles. If you have a chart to point it out, that would be helpful. So for now, let's put the candle volume issue aside.

As for #2, I fully agree and have seen with my own eye over many years of analysis that price always returns to retest broken support and resistance. Until it happens, it is considered unfinished business.

#3 is kind of tied in to #2 in so far as if the market is extremely net one way or the other, then as soon as the catalyst that send it that way loses steam, you get a consolidation. Therefore lets say a COT report says that traders are severely net long on their contracts, the logic behind it tells you to start looking to short the instrument once you understand what made the traders go net long and you see that the reason either is no longer valid, or is no longer as valid as before, or has resulted in an overbought condition which is no longer supported by the economic fundamentals.

The problem with all the above is that none of it accounts for CB intervention.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,877
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:43pm Nov 6, 2011 12:43pm
I have said it a few times in past posts, but I'll say it again.

Germany is not currently willing, and I am pretty sure will not be willing in the future, to commit any more than the current €211 Billion towards the EFSF (Empty Financial Stability Farce)

It seems Germany has to keep repeating this also but I don't think they are being clear enough. Apparently they are scared to say it in plain English (Or German), so they resort to vague statements such as the following...

Bundesbank: Against Using SDRs For Leveraging EU Bailout Fund

The Bundesbank is against using Germany's Special Drawing Rights for leveraging the euro-zone's bailout fund to stop the region's debt crisis from spreading to the global economy.

"We are opposed to the idea and the Bundesbank has an autonomy over German currency reserves," a Bundesbank spokesman told Dow Jones Newswires Sunday.

He confirmed there was a plan to pool foreign reserves, particularly SDRs, at last week's summit of leaders from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations, to help increase the firepower of the EUR440 billion European Financial Stability Facility.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,878
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:49pm Nov 6, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
..Germany is not currently willing, and I am pretty sure will not be willing in the future, to commit any more than the current €211 Billion towards the EFSF (Empty Financial Stability Farce)....
Since Frau Merkel lost elections in her canton @ August, she is not anymore able to force proeuropean stimul. Voters are just sick of it. And it is getting only worse.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,879
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:01pm Nov 6, 2011 1:01pm
More about Iron Frau weakening.

She lost elections in Berlin at 18th of Sept. On my chart it is turqoise vertical line.

Frau has very high impact on EUR since she was very proeuropean.

T.

Edit: Ah, I made a mistake. Sorry for misleading you. Sept is 9th month, so It was the next correction. This first break was a loss in that first canton. I shall try to find all dates of elections and update.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,880
  • Edited 1:31pm Nov 6, 2011 1:25pm | Edited 1:31pm
Iron Frau elections.

I have mapped this years state elections and weakening of Iron Frau.

So, there were six elections:
1) 20.2.- Hamburg - CDU - 2nd
2) 20.3. - Saxon Anhalt - CDU - 1st
3a) 27.3. - Baden Wurttenberg - CDU - 1st
3b) 27.3. - Rhineland - 2nd

And now Frau starts to weaken.

4) 22.5. - Bremen - CDU 3rd
5) 4.8 - Mecklenburg Vorpommern - home canton of Merkel - worst beat for her - CDU 2nd
6) 18.9. - Berlin - CDU 2nd

Times of elections are marked in my messy weekly chart with vertical turqoise lines.

As Frau's power weakens, Euro seems to be weakening as well.

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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