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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #7,841
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:56am Nov 6, 2011 12:56am
Quoting AaronWard
BS is short for bullshit. It has a variety of different meanings.
As long as it makes profits
  • #7,842
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:54am Nov 6, 2011 2:54am
EUR/USD Outlook November 7-11

Euro/dollar sank down the previous range and couldn’t fully recover, in a very tense and busy week. Are new falls awaiting us? The upcoming week consists of 9 events and the ongoing debt crisis in Europe...

The Greek referendum was born at the beginning of the week and was buried towards the end. It definitely weakened the common currency, together with acknowledgement of a recession in the euro-zone and the rate cut. After the Greek government survived a confidence vote, some of the focus shifts to Italy, which has its own political mess and with its yields, long term and short term at scary, almost “bailout level” highs, despite ECB intervention...

The full effect of the rate cut with the accompanying acknowledgement of a recession hasn’t been seen yet. The same goes for the problems in Italy and Portugal.With current yields, Draghi may be dragged into a full scale QE. And while the referendum is off and Papandreou survived for now (brilliant or foolish move?), the uncertainty surrounding Greece is still huge. Regarding Chinese or other investment in the EFSF bailout fund, certainty is higher: no help is on the way.

In the US, a recession now seems unlikely with more gains in jobs (especially in previous months) and also QE3 remains unlikely.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,843
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:03am Nov 6, 2011 3:03am
Hey guys, is this cool or what?

Hanover ( a commercial member who writes forex software) has published for free a news indicator. When you hover you mouse over the event a little window pops up and gives the details. This is what it looks like on the 30 min chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 77 KB
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,844
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:58am Nov 6, 2011 3:58am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey guys, is this cool or what?

Hanover ( a commercial member who writes forex software) has published for free a news indicator. When you hover you mouse over the event a little window pops up and gives the details. This is what it looks like on the 30 min chart.
Where's the link to the indicator? Or do you want to keep it all to yourself ?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,845
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:07am Nov 6, 2011 4:07am
Current Daily Outlook - a Bit Confused - Seems Like H&S - Seems unlike
Interested how 4H develop
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,846
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:25am Nov 6, 2011 4:25am
Quoting FXMindset
Current Daily Outlook - a Bit Confused - Seems Like H&S - Seems unlike
Interested how 4H develop
Situation in Greece is still unresolved.
Hopefully we will know something later today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,847
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:31am Nov 6, 2011 4:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Where's the link to the indicator? Or do you want to keep it all to yourself ?
Or maybe it is free only to "chosen ones"
  • #7,848
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:42am Nov 6, 2011 4:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
Situation in Greece is still unresolved.
Hopefully we will know something later today.
What's News will be bring today mate


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,849
  • Nov 6, 2011 4:49am Nov 6, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Blobik
Or maybe it is free only to "chosen ones"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245064

The link as requested. But of course you lazy fellows could have just done a search. There are a few more nifties there as well. Also, Hanover is a must read... he has some of the absolutely best posts on this site.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,850
  • Nov 6, 2011 5:00am Nov 6, 2011 5:00am
why not search ? hanover has lot of indi , free and explained well there
Quoting PipTrapper
Where's the link to the indicator? Or do you want to keep it all to yourself ?
not euphoria follower
  • #7,851
  • Edited 6:10am Nov 6, 2011 5:56am | Edited 6:10am
Hi Guy this is the COT report from this site http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

I am not 100% sure how to read this, but it looks to me like commercial traders make up the majority of the market and they are long. Of course, this was for the day the Euro closed at 1.36xx.

So somewhat bullish for the Euro?
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,852
  • Nov 6, 2011 7:11am Nov 6, 2011 7:11am
Quoting iqyu5an
why not search ? hanover has lot of indi , free and explained well there
I did search and I did find it, but some of us are too lazy and some of us do not know how to search
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,853
  • Nov 6, 2011 7:13am Nov 6, 2011 7:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Guy this is the COT report from this site http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

I am not 100% sure how to read this, but it looks to me like commercial traders make up the majority of the market and they are long. Of course, this was for the day the Euro closed at 1.36xx.

So somewhat bullish for the Euro?
That's futures. More interested in spot market.
Here's a link to a graph. Easier to read.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,854
  • Nov 6, 2011 7:40am Nov 6, 2011 7:40am
Hi guys.

The more news I read the more I am becoming biased to downside. 70/30 now. As usual on weekend.

Just look at www.ft.com
Greek conservative leader wants elections.
Btw, PT they are copying your posts again.

"Papandemonium shakes investors." - what a nice title on main page of FT .

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8cb83...#axzz1cvq7lmXn

Bloomberg
Treasuries gain in expectation of QE3 which didnt come - money flow into treasuries, strenghtening USD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...isis-plan.html

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,855
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:11am Nov 6, 2011 8:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's futures. More interested in spot market.
Here's a link to a graph. Easier to read.
That is a very interesting chart. I am just trying to cut through numbers.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,856
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:17am Nov 6, 2011 8:17am
Greek opposition refuses to join coalition

George Papandreou’s chances of putting together a strong coalition government that could persuade international lenders to unblock fresh funding for Greece have faded after the conservative leader bluntly rejected his proposal.

Antonis Samaras said on Saturday his New Democracy party would not join a new government that would lack a clear mandate. He repeated his call for immediate elections.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,857
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:25am Nov 6, 2011 8:25am
Maybe you could help me here with english.

Total open interest - is number of total opened futures positions. You can either be opened long or short, so this total number measures how many cash is fixed in futures market? Which would be 28,9 Bn at 1st nov.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,858
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:32am Nov 6, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Maybe you could help me here with english.

Total open interest - is number of total opened futures positions. You can either be opened long or short, so this total number measures how many cash is fixed in futures market? Which would be 28,9 Bn at 1st nov.

T.
"Total Open Interest" is the total number of contracts currently open on the specified date.

"Net Open Interest Positioning" is the total open "LONG" contracts less the total open "SHORT" contracts. Therefor a negative number means that there are more contracts short than there are long. A zero means it is 50/50
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,859
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:38am Nov 6, 2011 8:38am
Thank you.

So it is total opened - number * price of contract - 28,9 Bn fixed at 1st Nov.

And then positions are netted against each other.

I wonder what is source of CFTC. Do you think NYSE reports to them?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,860
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:49am Nov 6, 2011 8:49am
Please correct me if I am wrong guys.

Does this mean there are 1,3 Tril cash fixed at Eurex futures at 4th of Nov?

Down on that link is a Total Opened interest. One futures contract at Eurex is for 100,000 EUR. So 12,9 M * 100 K = 1,3 Tril


http://www.eurexchange.com/market/st...online_en.html

T

edit: Working on weekend again. Thats not healthy.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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