EurAnalysis | Page 392 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #7,821
  • Nov 5, 2011 6:25pm Nov 5, 2011 6:25pm
Bullish then bearish then bullish, rinse and repeat, comes out of the gate, gap up to 1.38300 and then craps out downward. This is all conjecture and not to be followed in live trading. There is no spoon, yada yada yada!
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #7,822
  • Nov 5, 2011 6:45pm Nov 5, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting fxrising
Bullish then bearish then bullish, rinse and repeat, comes out of the gate, gap up to 1.38300 and then craps out downward. This is all conjecture and not to be followed in live trading. There is no spoon, yada yada yada!
Yep. That sounds like the Euro for the last 3 years.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,823
  • Nov 5, 2011 7:00pm Nov 5, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. That sounds like the Euro for the last 3 years.
Sound like my life. Wonder when the crap part comes.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,824
  • Nov 5, 2011 7:05pm Nov 5, 2011 7:05pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Just a question for fun.

Is negation of doomsday news bullish signal of correction of a bearish doomsday?
Allow me to give my answer to that question Tom.

Normally a negation of an extremely bearish event translates into a correction (Covering of shorts/profit taking) but is not necessarily a reason for bulls to jump in, especially in the absence of any bullish news.

Obviously the more short contracts there are before the negation, the bigger the correction for two reasons.
1. lots of profit for the taking.
2. Technical traders see an oversold condition and are already entering long positions before the negation.

Once price hits the recent highs of what appears to be a bearish flag (In the case of the recent Euro moves), the same technical traders will be covering their long positions (profit taking) and entering shorts again.

This keeps going (ranging) until more news comes out breaking it out of the range in either direction depending on the resulting sentiment from the next news.

In short, as long as there are traders following technicals, the market is always moving in short spurts and cycles. Those who follow it from a purely technical view sometimes think that it is the nature of the market, whilst really it is just a self fulfilling prophecy. Perception becomes reality.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,825
  • Nov 5, 2011 7:28pm Nov 5, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Allow me to give my answer to that question Tom.
.....
That question was merely for fun. Thanks for answering though. I agree with all and it is very interesting watching you sumarizing.

So, If it wasnt for weekend, when traders get time to digest bearish outcomes of G20, scenario could play this way - trying to enter blue circle.

Red dotted are h4 channels, yellow h1.

That could lead us to retest weak 42 close at 38811 combined with channel top.

But it is weekend. Fundamental prevails. I bet 60/40 for down .

T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 28 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,826
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:38pm Nov 5, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting Blobik
Yet another news on FF, suggesting that it is rather lowering Initial Margin levels to allow safe (without margin calls) transfer of MF Global positions. So perhaps there will be no easy money on Monday. Oh well, traded money and scalped money are fine, too.
You mean this right?

The intent and effect of these changes is to decrease the size of any margin calls resulting from the bulk transfer of MF Global customers to new clearing members, not to increase them.

Of course. That's the idea of a margin hike... to make them think about proper money management.

But it doesn't affect the fact that they are all getting a margin call... we are talking about the whole market, not about a single company

Pbh
  • #7,827
  • Nov 5, 2011 9:59pm Nov 5, 2011 9:59pm
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/li...D&cn=uidTWASIA

Jim Rogers
  • #7,828
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:30pm Nov 5, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting Pbh
The intent and effect of these changes is to decrease the size of any margin calls resulting from the bulk transfer of MF Global customers to new clearing members, not to increase them.

Of course. That's the idea of a margin hike... to make them think about proper money management.

Pbh
A margin hike is to keep under-funded accounts from participating in an instrument, not to make the trader think of proper MM. Margin hikes come when the volatility increases, which leads to under-funded accounts recieving a margin call.

What the CME is doing is attemting to keep margin calls to a limit. Too many margin calls can adversely affect the price movement of an instrument leading to a run in price.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,829
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:32pm Nov 5, 2011 10:32pm
Quoting spzd
A margin hike is to keep under-funded accounts from participating in an instrument, not to make the trader think of proper MM. Margin hikes come when the volatility increases, which leads to under-funded accounts recieving a margin call.

What the CME is doing is attemting to keep margin calls to a limit. Too many margin calls can adversely affect the price movement of an instrument leading to a run in price.
isn't that proper money management?
  • #7,830
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:34pm Nov 5, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting Pbh
isn't that proper money management?
keeping them out of risky positions because they are under-funded...

I think that's what money management is about
  • #7,831
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:43pm Nov 5, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting Pbh
keeping them out of risky positions because they are under-funded...

I think that's what money management is about
Money management is how you control your own personal acoount. Margin rates is how they control who participates.

The CME is not concerned with individual traders MM. They are concerned with maintaing stability in thier products. So if they are thinking a large number of accounts that may possibly recieve margin calls is coming they will do what is necessary to reduce the impact of that.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,832
  • Nov 5, 2011 10:46pm Nov 5, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting spzd
Money management is how you control your own personal acoount. Margin rates is how they control who participates.

The CME is not concerned with individual traders MM. They are concerned with maintaing stability in thier products..
Therefore, their own personal money... never mind, I think we're both right.


But thanks for giving your opinion about my comment

Pbh
  • #7,833
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:02am Nov 6, 2011 12:02am
from Oct. 19....

Quoting The Fool
Nov 7, 2011 should be a date to watch imo. Next week the summit to save the euro will not fully deliver (more can-kicking), and the markets will start to sell off. The G20 heads will hatch out something truely unexpected in Cannes, and announcements will be made after the markets close on Friday the 4th. 11/7 = the Mother of all Black Mondays. I am selling all risk assets I have the last week or so and will be short the euro when it counts.
....and today

http://www.businessinsider.com/tremo...monday-2011-11
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,834
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:07am Nov 6, 2011 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
from Oct. 19....



....and today

http://www.businessinsider.com/tremo...monday-2011-11
can i borrow your crystal ball sometime
  • #7,835
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:18am Nov 6, 2011 12:18am
you wanna see a flight to safety?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-evidence.html

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,836
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:31am Nov 6, 2011 12:31am
A) What does a Greek policitican and a Zit have in common?

1. They are painful
2. They are unsightly
3. You are never to sure what to do about them
4. They eventually pop
5. They make a mess when they pop

B) There are 4 key trading styles. They are price action, technical analysis, fundamental analysis and BS. Traders of these 4 key styles produce different types of dialogue. Samples are below:

1. PA: Looks like a reversal...I'm in... yeah...making money... oh sh1t just got stopped out
2. TA: I can say with 100% certainty that it will either go up, down or sideways
3. FA: Its going my way...yeah... oh...no it has reversed... something is wrong with the markets
4. BS: I am right and you are wrong. What is more your system is stupid and so are you.

However, most traders will use at least 2 styles. Myself... I like to use all four. That makes me like the markets... nobody knows if I am coming or going.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,837
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:35am Nov 6, 2011 12:35am
Fool,

You always come up with the best articles. Many thanks.

I guess that both of these are just a tiny bit Euro negative?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,838
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:36am Nov 6, 2011 12:36am
Quoting AaronWard
However, most traders will use at least 2 styles. Myself... I like to use all four. That makes me like the markets... nobody knows if I am coming or going.
What's BS about ?
  • #7,839
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:45am Nov 6, 2011 12:45am
Quoting AaronWard
I guess that both of these are just a tiny bit Euro negative?
ya sure...so...long euro, hey?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,840
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:50am Nov 6, 2011 12:50am
Quoting Pbh
What's BS about
BS is short for bullshit. It has a variety of different meanings. Take your pick:

bull新hit Vulgar Slang n.
1. Foolish, deceitful, or boastful language.
2. Something worthless, deceptive, or insincere.
3. Insolent talk or behavior.

v. bull新hit also bull新hat or bull新hit暗ed, bull新hit暗ing, bull新hits
v.intr.
1. To speak foolishly or insolently.
2. To engage in idle conversation.

v.tr. To attempt to mislead or deceive by talking nonsense.

adj. Very angry; incensed.

interj. Used to express extreme displeasure or exasperation.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
137 traders viewing now