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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,801
  • Nov 5, 2011 1:55pm Nov 5, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Pbh you may have misunderstood one aspect of what I explained. The bolded statement only applies if the Greek government falls due to a failure of the confidence vote. Since the gov won the confidence vote, the gov does not fall so Greece will get their money.
oh, I misunderstood it, then

already corrected it
  • #7,802
  • Nov 5, 2011 2:00pm Nov 5, 2011 2:00pm
The USDX Chart clearly already show me (Not us) that Dollar is Back and would getting stronger in Mid term - My Chart - My News - Dont attack me - Its my Chart - Maybe I have wrong view
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,803
  • Edited 2:51pm Nov 5, 2011 2:35pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting Pbh
"CME Goes To Margin DefCon 1: Makes Maintenance Margin Equal To Initial For... Everything!?" CME Hikes Margins Across the board: Copper, Palladium, Silver, And, Oddly, IR Swaps, Treasurys And Fed Funds

What's a margin hike?

So the exchange raises margin requirements to make sure that investors have more cash on hand in the event of a major collapse in the product. Hypothetically this means traders have to sell their assets to keep more cash on hand.

Last...
Correct me, if I am wrong: margin hike makes you hold more cash, in other words, you are forced to trade with lower leverage (Is it correct?). But, doesn't it affect shorts same as longs on the instrument? I mean, it there are many overleveraged short positions on a commodity, lets take gold as an example, wouldn't it cause part of the shorts to get closed to make the new requirement, pushing price upwards as a result? Or is it only negative for commodities?

And I just noticed an update on zerohedge:

Update: Based on unofficial statements by the CME, it appears that the exchange has gone the way of inviting more risk by lowering Initial to meet existing Maintenance margin across the board. We will likely only know for certain on Monday. We suppose the proposed explanation will be to minimize margin exposure for onboarded MF positions. Of course, that this is very much counterintuitive at a time when risk is spiking and vol readings per SPAN are soaring, and instead is inviting even more risk, is apparently irrelevant to the exchange.

Does it mean, that triggering multiple margin calls is not to be worried about, as current margin requirement remains unchanged?

It really made me confused. As I remind myself increasing margin requirement usually causes nice powerfull drop in commodities, and probably in other assets too (when you trade many things, you need to liquidate even profitable trades to make up for losses, or make up to the margin calls).
  • #7,804
  • Nov 5, 2011 2:45pm Nov 5, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting Blobik
Correct me, if I am wrong: margin hike makes you hold more cash, in other words, you are forced to trade with lower leverage (Is it correct?). But, doesn't it affect shorts same as longs on the instrument?
Correct but the whole idea here as I understand it, is that positions may have to be liquidated, thereby creating a demand for US Dollars (Assuming their accounts are USD denominated). This translates into a stronger USD. Ergo Weaker risk assets (Including Euro)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,805
  • Nov 5, 2011 2:54pm Nov 5, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Correct but the whole idea here as I understand it, is that positions may have to be liquidated, thereby creating a demand for US Dollars (Assuming their accounts are USD denominated). This translates into a stronger USD. Ergo Weaker risk assets (Including Euro)
I guess we need to wait till markets open. If the effect is to be strong, it should be noticeable just after market opening, am I right?
  • #7,806
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:26pm Nov 5, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting Blobik
Correct me, if I am wrong: margin hike makes you hold more cash, in other words, you are forced to trade with lower leverage (Is it correct?).
Exactly...

More people close positions, and assuming their accounts are based on USDs (as PT said), this increases USD demand because of the margin calls.
  • #7,807
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:29pm Nov 5, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting Blobik
I guess we need to wait till markets open. If the effect is to be strong, it should be noticeable just after market opening, am I right?
I think that's correct... and since traders start closing positions, this can affect others that were not so close to get a margin call, but due to the move they get closed anyways...

So, practically yes...

It can be a nice short on silver.

I guess we'll need to see

Pbh
  • #7,808
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:30pm Nov 5, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.marctomarket.com/2011/11/...s-custody.html

It is child's play to poke holes in the so-called rules of chart technical analysis. The latter is just as subject to wishful thinking and sloppy reasoning as is astology or any other half-baked system of analysis.

On the other hand, the problem with "fundamental analysis" is that most of the fundamentals become irrelevant in the face of CB intervention. And ...
My forex account is increasing fast lately because of that "child's play" you say. I am here to share what I learned from many others in forums who shared their ideas with me. I personally believe what is going on fundamentally is more complicated than just those numbers and news we access here and there. All info is not available to every one and controlling situation by the big boys makes it impossible to predict what would happen. Look at my chart and see my material I am using daily for trading. channels and fibonucci numbers as I said before. There are a lot more to take a trade but that's how I follow my trades and make it profitable.
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  • #7,809
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:56pm Nov 5, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting FXMindset
The USDX Chart clearly already show me (Not us) that Dollar is Back and would getting stronger in Mid term - My Chart - My News - Dont attack me - Its my Chart - Maybe I have wrong view
That's what I expect to happen too. No worries if being wrong, we just see and follow
  • #7,810
  • Nov 5, 2011 3:57pm Nov 5, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting TechTrader
My forex account is increasing fast lately because of that "child's play" you say
Another braggart for the bin...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,811
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:04pm Nov 5, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting TechTrader
I personally believe what is going on fundamentally is more complicated than just those numbers and news we access here and there. All info is not available to every one and controlling situation by the big boys makes it impossible to predict what would happen.
hey! we try to do it here ... so you can see that yet we don't have acces to that "big boys' secret information", we can trade fundamentally and make nice profits from it.

Great you're making nice profits - you are trading "Price Action", then.
Lower TFs are prefered for this.. just remember, trend is your friend -
Look for long setups in an uptrend and for short setups in a downtrend.

Good luck

Pbh
  • #7,812
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:11pm Nov 5, 2011 4:11pm
After reading the tutorial about Support and Resistance Levels in BabyPips School, I am wondering which point I should base upon when drawing these lines. I saw most of you (may be all) drew at extreme points on candlestick chart rather than close price on line chart. Is there any reason for doing so? Which is the best way to draw those levels based on your experience? Your input will be very much appreciated!
  • #7,813
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:16pm Nov 5, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting The Fool
Another braggart for the bin...
You are right. Sorry about that. Chart was the only thing that I should have talked about. My account is not relevant to any discussion.
All I say is those channels talk to you and help you to predict future destination of move after it getting started and if channels not being satisfied in one move then fibonucci numbers are where price will take a rest to start again after a retracement. For getting in a trade money management and timing are keys of make a success of a trade. News time is mostly when I am in if move is in the middle of a channel or out to see if price is at critical points of a channel. Thanks for noticing me wrong ways of making my points. I appreciate bro...
  • #7,814
  • Edited 4:35pm Nov 5, 2011 4:18pm | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting Pbh
It can be a nice short on silver.
Thought exactly the same... Problem is, that one pip is worth a lot on silver, so mistakes there are painful. But I have whole day to rethink this back and forth One more crash like that in May (it was beginnig of May, wasn't it?), would be delicious... if one shorted.

ADD: Yet another news on FF, suggesting that it is rather lowering Initial Margin levels to allow safe (without margin calls) transfer of MF Global positions. So perhaps there will be no easy money on Monday. Oh well, traded money and scalped money are fine, too.
  • #7,815
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:24pm Nov 5, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting Pbh
hey! we try to do it here ... so you can see that yet we don't have acces to that "big boys' secret information", we can trade fundamentally and make nice profits from it.

Great you're making nice profits - you are trading "Price Action", then.
Lower TFs are prefered for this.. just remember, trend is your friend -
Look for long setups in an uptrend and for short setups in a downtrend.

Good luck

Pbh
What you and many other great members are doing here is why I am here! I read and try to understand but I just follow the price. I am happy with harmony I see in price action. I do what my channels say. That's why I am a TechTrader.
  • #7,816
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:30pm Nov 5, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting TechTrader
I do what my channels say. That's why I am a TechTrader.
Nice.. show us some posts when you see any interesting setup cause we also take care of them here

Pbh
  • #7,817
  • Edited 4:50pm Nov 5, 2011 4:36pm | Edited 4:50pm
Okay... wow.. I'm just starting to understand a bunch of information that I didn't understand before thanks to Piptrapper ...

FXstreet.com (Barcelona, November 3rd) - According to recent reports the Greek referendum on national bailout, which was supposed to take place on December 4, has just been canceled.

Remember "Referendum has been scrapped"?? Well here's the reason

The Greek PM George Papandreou decided to call it off after the main opposition leader said he would support the debt deal.

Rumors which were circulating in the last hour about the Greek PM's imminent resignation, have been disavowed. Papandreou will wait until the outcome of tomorrow’s vote of confidence in his government.

Which he already passed

The opposition presented a plan of creating a transitional government to approve Eurozone aid and obtain the next tranche of the rescue fund as quickly as possible.

So they are getting the money...

Ohh... Now I see a clearer picture...

EDIT: This is bullish

Pbh
  • #7,818
  • Nov 5, 2011 4:40pm Nov 5, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting Pbh
Nice.. show us some posts when you see any interesting setup cause we also take care of them here

Pbh
feels good to get corrected about set ups. Thanks pbh. I will do it.
  • #7,819
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:24pm Nov 5, 2011 5:24pm
I was wondering if we are going to revisit 38935 -39357 zone before bearish trendbreak.

This is kinda mumbo jumbo, as lenght prediction of trends still fails mostly. I think it is partially because of weekends and holidays messing.

Anyway, average G2 correction is 4,2 days long. Since this correction started 1.11. 16:00, it should finish somewhat today. So monday may be the last day for an attempt.

Jumbo as I say.

Anyway I hope I will manage to hop in the submarine on time.

T.

diet: Wrong chart, sry
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,820
  • Nov 5, 2011 6:11pm Nov 5, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting Pbh

EDIT: This is bullish
Just a question for fun.

Is negation of doomsday news bullish signal of correction of a bearish doomsday?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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