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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,701
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:35am Nov 4, 2011 10:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Please provide me with a link to the mentioned post. I must have missed it.

As for G20, it's done. It's a dud, a flop, a non-event.
The only hope now is ECB QE1 but that would require a treaty change and Germany will not likely approve. So perhaps the solution is for Germany to exit the EuroZone and go back to the Mark or perhaps have a Neuro and Seuro.
Sorry PT I can't seem to find a link but a lot of us gave our views on the future of the euro and you replied saying you would love to give your opinion on all the comments but wished to remain silent until after the G20..Pretty sure it was you anyway!
  • #7,702
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:44am Nov 4, 2011 10:44am
Quoting FXMindset
Died Euro Died
Not yet - Bid lets Bid - Maybe Yes Maybe No
Test 1 2 and 3
Closed +60 Pips - Hoammm
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,703
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:52am Nov 4, 2011 10:52am
Quoting ntrprz
Right now the market wants the Euro to go higher, whatever the reason.
Rumors flying around that opposition is lining up to vote for Papadumdum in the confidence vote.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,704
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:55am Nov 4, 2011 10:55am
Soon there will be a new indie developed, rumours / day / hour/ minute to help determine current market spiking probability.
  • #7,705
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:03am Nov 4, 2011 11:03am
Quoting PipKiller
Rumors flying around that opposition is lining up to vote for Papadumdum in the confidence vote.
Yes, there is that. I was speaking generally. I have never seen a rational reason other than market retracements and sentiment for this to have rebounded from 1.30, I thought it should go straight to par on long term fundamentals. I also fail to understand how Euro represents, "risk on". To me, "risk on" would be emerging markets more than the old world trying on a new currency. I understand reserve currency etc status for the dollar, and safe haven etc. But I still don't understand why the Yen, with an economy stuck in the mud for a decade is somehow a safer bet.

It is things like that that baffle me.

I hit my 1.38 number, and magic 8 ball says short for a bit, then evaluate for the weekend as I always leave something open for giggles.
  • #7,706
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:08am Nov 4, 2011 11:08am
Quoting RodMca
Sorry PT I can't seem to find a link but a lot of us gave our views on the future of the euro and you replied saying you would love to give your opinion on all the comments but wished to remain silent until after the G20..Pretty sure it was you anyway!
Hmmm If it was me I probably would have said I didn't have the mental capacity to respond due to the powerful pain killers I was taking.

I will search through your past posts if you give me an approximate date and maybe a few key words that you had written.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,707
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:09am Nov 4, 2011 11:09am
Quote
It is things like that that baffle me.

I hit my 1.38 number, and magic 8 ball says short for a bit, then evaluate for the weekend as I always leave something open for giggles.

Just when I think I've got this trading thing figured out..nothing seems to make sense lately...euro is all over the place and rarely where according to my indicators where it should be going...for shites and giggles I flipped a coin..it was right more than I was...stop the insanity!!!!
learn by failure,succeed by learning
Aim Small Return Today: 18.9%
  • #7,708
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:12am Nov 4, 2011 11:12am
I have been studying the S&P since it correlates so closely to the EURUSD. What I find interesting are long term earnings growth projections. They are projected to fall from in the 20% growth the most recent quarter, off lousy comps, to just 7% by the 4th quarter of 2012. The second indicator that is fascinating is multiple compression. The forward P/E on the market is falling steadily and has been for 10 years from a high of 18x to more like 13x today. I think this makes a world of sense as businesses do not last as long as they used to, since the world changes quickly, and new technologies and companies can go from nothing to market dominators in a short time.

The timing of this, correlates nicely to what I see, and most see here, as the long term decline in the Euro, and why it hasn't happened all at once this quarter.

Take a look at this link and then go to the appendices and look at some of the earnings trends and direction. These numbers will be hitting the market starting late January 2012. Correlate this data with ECRI leading indicator data and the horrible economic activity numbers from Europe today and Draghi's comments.

The first quarter of 2012 will not be pretty. To hell with sell in may and go away, it might be all I want for Christmas is to get out of the market if you are betting long.
  • #7,709
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:12am Nov 4, 2011 11:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hmmm If it was me I probably would have said I didn't have the mental capacity to respond due to the powerful pain killers I was taking.

I will search through your past posts if you give me an approximate date and maybe a few key words that you had written.
It was yesterday I think just before the NY close.. I post so much stuff I can't remember what time of the day it was but it was definitely yesterday. I basically spoke about major market movers occurring early next year due to France coming under scrutiny etc etc
  • #7,710
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:16am Nov 4, 2011 11:16am
Retrace to breakout and rejection.

I added the 1/2 portion I pulled earlier today. No risk trade. Lets she if she'll drop back towards the break up. Worst case she stops me for no loss. Will pull everything off the table but my EurChf long if I don't feel I have enough room for a weekend gap.

1.3806 Basis for both pieces now
SL 1.3804 BE+2.......... Missed it by 1 pip Thank goodness for very tight spreads.
Risk 0%

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,711
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:19am Nov 4, 2011 11:19am
Went Long from 1.3745 took profits at 1.38 on the dot short again at 1.3790 try get another 40-50 pips to close off an excellent week!
  • #7,712
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:36am Nov 4, 2011 11:36am
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,713
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:39am Nov 4, 2011 11:39am
Hmm, seems I didnt miss anything. Looking forward for weekends analysis and mondays movement. This ranging kinda sucks for me.

Cya @ weekend.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,714
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:40am Nov 4, 2011 11:40am
The inevitable class warfare breaks out…
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,715
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:41am Nov 4, 2011 11:41am
Quoting FXMindset
Exactly... I hate waiting too long for a trade... That is why I closed another short almost at BE... But again, entry was a good one. If will keep it up next week, I will claim I learned sth. Now need to work on exits, though, making no-losses is not the same as making profit.
  • #7,716
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:44am Nov 4, 2011 11:44am
Both sides of the pond, US and Euro are pretty good of messing thing up

My bet is that wee will se the Eur Usd closing in and trade around 1.35 and 1.40 this Christmas/New year.
Since the overall general conditions when looking at the numbers are much alike it will be thosse who first sort there house and make the econmi grow that win
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  • #7,717
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:47am Nov 4, 2011 11:47am
This is might be Head & Shoulder
Chart attached
Attached Image
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,718
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:50am Nov 4, 2011 11:50am
Quoting Blobik
Exactly... I hate waiting too long for a trade... That is why I closed another short almost at BE... But again, entry was a good one. If will keep it up next week, I will claim I learned sth. Now need to work on exits, though, making no-losses is not the same as making profit.
When you found support - Resistance and tested - then exit - Indeed It required hard work and tons of drawing - Forex is not a easy Job - Its required hard work also ---> Sharp eyes and Clear Mind --> Proper MM
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,719
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:50am Nov 4, 2011 11:50am
Closed out last 2 pieces of E$ 33 pips each. Leaving Echf long @ 1.2137 to run over the weekend.

I'm done for the week and shutting everything down, Y'all have a great weekend.

I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,720
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:55am Nov 4, 2011 11:55am
I also have closed all positions scalped another 15 pips 230 for today and 830 for the week my most profitable week yet

See ya all on Monday to scalp a few hundred more pips

Trade safe all!
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