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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,501
  • Edited 2:47am Nov 4, 2011 2:32am | Edited 2:47am
I keep looking at charts and dislike the fact that 1.390-95 zone does not line up with bearish flat upper border. It seems like 1.388 was to be the max (unless we get more bouncing in the flag... but wouldn't it make too many bounces then?). Or maybe I misplaced my trendlines? Right now I see it the same as Pbh does.

As a result, have no idea where to put a limit, so no limits. Maybe I will be there to see how price approaches 1.388 and make decision based on that.

BTW, due to BOJ show, Pan... Panpa... Oh, well, Greek PM's show, ECB rate cut (whoa, lot of surprises) it seems most already forgotten about G20. If they manage to make something surprising, then It could be most surprising week of the year.
  • #7,502
  • Nov 4, 2011 2:33am Nov 4, 2011 2:33am
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Scenario: Zig Zag Correction Developing

http://www.fxtimes.com/wp-content/up...11032011h1.gif

The EUR/USD market has been whipping up back and forth in consolidation. After rallying from a bear trap in early 11/3 European session, EUR/USD fell after the ECB decision as the US trading session began. However, it found support after Draghi’s conference was over, and extended the correction rally past the consolidation high near 1.3825. After an abc consolidation, which we will call wave A, followed by bear-trap B wave, it appears we might be developing a C wave of a zig zag. This C wave can be expected to have impulse wave structure.

Looking at the 1H chart we see resistance near 1.39 (200-period simple moving average) up to 1.3927 (50% retracement). This is a good place for the market to “park” the EUR/USD in the short-term look as it awaits the NFP release Friday 8:30AM ET. Then, if the market finds support above 1.3820, another swing up can extend pass the 50% toward 61.8% retracement near 1.40. This would also satisfy a zig zag where C=161.8% A.( It should be noted that according to Elliott Wave principles, C wave in a zig zag can have wave 4 and 1 overlap if it develops a rising wedge).

A rally above 1.40 however would start to look too deep for just a retracement and the bullish scenario may be have to be considered at least in the short-term in context of a sideways market in the larger degree.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,503
  • Nov 4, 2011 2:58am Nov 4, 2011 2:58am
Hey Fool, thanks for the video.

This whole process of creating authorities ABOVE national authorities with the power over the formerly sovereign nation is part of the creation of a world government. Or at least a European government.

Unlike many, I don't see it as all bad... just somewhat bad. The highest authority in international law has always been the nation. But now there is an authority above that. The bad part is that Authority is not accountable to the nation... only to itself.

I still haven't quite figured what is happening in Greece... it seems that the referendum is off and there will be a vote of confidence in the government today. What I can't figure is a) where the opposition stands, b) if the idea of a vote is to form a new coalition government or have elections, and c) what sort of pressure are they apply to the PM to get him to change his mind so swiftly...

PT -- be warned... FXtimes has a strong Bull bias. I have yet to see him predict the Euro was going to go down. So, of course, he is right some of the time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,504
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:03am Nov 4, 2011 3:03am
The SNB has been playing "Peg The Chiffie" again

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ech-h1.gif Size: 19 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,505
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:08am Nov 4, 2011 3:08am
Quoting AaronWard
PT -- be warned... FXtimes has a strong Bull bias. I have yet to see him predict the Euro was going to go down. So, of course, he is right some of the time.
Yes I am aware of that, but the point behind the EW explanation is that this is only a correction and not a reversal. So either way, it is bearish.
Regardless of any predicted wave counts, even if the Euro moves in any direction by several pips this morning, a clear direction will not be in play until we see the NFP number and the confidence vote results out of Greece.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,506
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:25am Nov 4, 2011 3:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes I am aware of that, but the point behind the EW explanation is that this is only a correction and not a reversal. So either way, it is bearish.
Regardless of any predicted wave counts, even if the Euro moves in any direction by several pips this morning, a clear direction will not be in play until we see the NFP number and the confidence vote results out of Greece.
What time is the vote?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,507
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:26am Nov 4, 2011 3:26am
Anybody thinks technically we may see 1.40s and maybe more later on?
  • #7,508
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:38am Nov 4, 2011 3:38am
Quoting drtorque
Anybody thinks technically we may see 1.40s and maybe more later on?
... Maybe. I am more like for 3894 zone till 3936 zone. But overshoot to 1,4 may happen. But I dont see any higher movement possible, and even that overshoot is very unlikely to me.

Well, in fact I didnt see that 1,4247 top coming either, but anyway. Since 11.7., we are in a very strong downtrend. CBs are just trying to fool us and create virtual growth. I aint seeing any growth coming.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,509
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:38am Nov 4, 2011 3:38am
Quoting drtorque
Anybody thinks technically we may see 1.40s and maybe more later on?
Currently on a purely technical projection, I see possibly 1.40 but most likely mid 1.39xx

This is very speculative though as we have much news coming out today (NFP, Greek Confidence Vote & G-20 political rhetoric) which can send this pair flying in either direction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,510
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:49am Nov 4, 2011 3:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
The SNB has been playing "Peg The Chiffie" again.
I think it is the impact of the data, indicating that their foreign reserves decreased this month (!).

Or am reading this wrong, and they just increased less?

Foreign Currency Reserves (Oct) M/M 242.7bln vs. Prev. 282.4bln

Cause if it means, that they managed to maintain 1.20 and not accumulate EUR... whoa. It would explain, why the EUR strenghtens against CHF - when market noticed, that SNB firepower has not decreased... Well, I would close EURCHF shorts, or at least reduce them.

ADD: And EURUSD will go crazy like a rollercoaster probably too much data to much rumours.
  • #7,511
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:56am Nov 4, 2011 3:56am
I think I Cannes, I think I Cannes

I Cannett

G-20 Leaders Urge Europe to Quell Debt Crisis as Greece Government Teeters

World leaders expressed impatience and irritation with Europe’s inability to defeat its two-year financial crisis as they urged swift resolution for the sake of the global economy.
With Greece’s debt-ridden government at risk of collapsing as soon as today, Group of 20 chiefs meeting in Cannes, France, yesterday pushed European authorities to flesh out and enact a week-old rescue plan that has already shown signs of unraveling.
“We are grappling with a lack of confidence in markets that leaders will act,” Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said in the French seaside resort. “It is therefore very important for leaders to act.”
Such calls -- echoed by the U.S., Britain, China and Russia -- highlight international disappointment that Europe missed the G-20’s deadline of this week to deliver a fix for its fiscal woes. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy sought to regain the initiative by keeping aid for Greece on ice and demanding Italy accelerate austerity.
“The euro zone must absolutely send a message of credibility to the whole world,” Sarkozy told reporters. “When we take decisions they must be applied, when we set rules they must be respected.”
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,512
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:58am Nov 4, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Blobik
I think it is the impact of the data, indicating that their foreign reserves decreased this month (!).

Or am reading this wrong, and they just increased less?

Foreign Currency Reserves (Oct) M/M 242.7bln vs. Prev. 282.4bln

Cause if it means, that they managed to maintain 1.20 and not accumulate EUR... whoa. It would explain, why the EUR strenghtens against CHF - when market noticed, that SNB firepower has not decreased... Well, I would close EURCHF shorts, or at least reduce them.

ADD: And EURUSD will go crazy like a rollercoaster...
Oh look what popped up on Twitter...
Talk of aggressive Swiss corp CHF selling, Citi says...

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,513
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:03am Nov 4, 2011 4:03am
Quoting AaronWard
What time is the vote?
I can't find any indication anywhere.
They are debating it now. That's all I know.

ADD: CNBC TV is sayiong that the confidence vote is tonight (Greek time). They are also saying that sources close to the PM are reporting that the PM may have made a deal with the opposition (Democratic Party) that if they support him on the confidence vote, he will step down in the next couple of days. That would mean no referendum and no elections till 2012.
Very speculative and unclear so far but you take what you can get. I am sure more details will emerge later.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,514
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:07am Nov 4, 2011 4:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
I can't find any indication anywhere.
They are debating it now. That's all I know.
Sorry, I couldn't resist...

To be, or not to be: that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep; No more; and by a sleep to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep; To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub; For in that sleep of death what dreams may come When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, Must give us pause: there's the respect That makes calamity of so long life; For who would bear the whips and scorns of time, The oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely, The pangs of despised love, the law's delay, The insolence of office and the spurns That patient merit of the unworthy takes, When he himself might his quietus make With a bare bodkin? who would fardels bear, To grunt and sweat under a weary life, But that the dread of something after death, The undiscover'd country from whose bourn No traveller returns, puzzles the will And makes us rather bear those ills we have Than fly to others that we know not of? Thus conscience does make cowards of us all; And thus the native hue of resolution Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought, And enterprises of great pith and moment With this regard their currents turn awry, And lose the name of action. - Soft you now! The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons Be all my sins remember'd.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,515
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:14am Nov 4, 2011 4:14am
Quoting AaronWard
Sorry, I couldn't resist...

To be, or not to be: that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles, And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep; No more; and by a sleep to say we end The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep; To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub; For in that sleep of death what dreams may come When we have shuffled off this mortal...
I prefer visuals.. Doesn't he look a bit like Papandreo?

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,516
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:17am Nov 4, 2011 4:17am
Quoting AaronWard
Sorry, I couldn't resist...

To be, or not to be: that is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer.....
Nice text. I feel sorry my english aint good enough to enjoy it properly. I have heard this in czech though.

Nevertheless, I have found a secret message in this Shakespeares play :

Quoting AaronWard
....That patient merit of the unworthy takes, When he himself might his quietus make With a bare bodkin? who would fardels bear, To grunt and sweat under a weary life, But that the dread of something after death, The undiscover'd country from whose bourn No traveller returns, puzzles the will And makes us rather bear those ills we have Than fly to others that we know not of? Thus conscience does make cowards of us all; And thus the native hue of resolution Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought, And enterprises of great...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,517
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:38am Nov 4, 2011 4:38am
Quoting AaronWard
I still haven't quite figured what is happening in Greece... it seems that the referendum is off and there will be a vote of confidence in the government today. What I can't figure is a) where the opposition stands, b) if the idea of a vote is to form a new coalition government or have elections, and c) what sort of pressure are they apply to the PM to get him to change his mind so swiftly...
I hear the vote of confidence will be late, around midnight Athens time, about 12 hrs from now. Papandreou will most probably be gone. There will be some kind of interim govt based on the Greek parliamentarian rules and a date will be set for elections to form a new govt within a month or two. Merkozy and the bankers sat Papadude down and explained to him the various consequences of Greece's exit from the EMU and he caved. The German bankers have the fingers in all kinds of Greek pies - heavy investment in business and infrastructure - its a symbiotic relationship kinda like between parasite and host if either gets sick or dies then so does the other....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,518
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:40am Nov 4, 2011 4:40am
You guys just keep me laughing...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,519
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:45am Nov 4, 2011 4:45am
Quoting The Fool
its a symbiotic relationship kinda like between parasite and host if either gets sick or dies then so does the other....
I am sure the host is diligently trying to figure out a way to get rid of the parasite in such a way that only kills the parasite and slightly cripples the host.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,520
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:53am Nov 4, 2011 4:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
I prefer visuals.. Doesn't he look a bit like Papandreo?

.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JD6gOrARk4
Me too!




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