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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,341
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:26am Nov 3, 2011 8:26am
Quoting TheSwede
You are right. If I can get 40 PIPS constantly every day then I can quit working. The problem here is constantly doing it right.
You dont need trade big in order to gain much even risk 1% per trade you will achieve all the dreams that you want
The Key : Compounding
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,342
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:26am Nov 3, 2011 8:26am
RBA cut rates, ECB cut rates, BoE doing QE...

-Are these the first of a series?-

Will see
  • #7,343
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:29am Nov 3, 2011 8:29am
Perhaps this perception is biased by the fundamental view held, but this rate reduction should continue to be Euro negative.
Draghi's first step is to reduce interest rates.

This is a person who has produced concensus within the ECB that the Euro countries are very weak. He did this knowing that he must prove credibility to the market as the new manager of a hard currency.

This is a statement that Europe is in big trouble. Trichet could have taken this step at the last meeting and made it easier for Draghi to take the helm. This to allow Draghi a chance to establish credentials.

That Trichet did not is a view that failure to act at the last meeting was an error in judgement as subsequent events played out.

We have just had some peaks in the commodity currency pairs where the initial reaction is that this is inflationary in effect. As the day plays out we will see if that is the correct intrepretation.
  • #7,344
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:29am Nov 3, 2011 8:29am
Quoting TheSwede
You are right. If I can get 40 PIPS constantly every day then I can quit working. The problem here is constantly doing it right.
Indeed. And in fact I just enough for a cake, as my scale-in attempt failed and eaten the profit But it means, I learned sth without paying tutition fees... Always add a trailing stop on a trade when it shoots in your direction And, reenter when price bounces back above your entry Man, this could be a lot of pips! But I was lucky not to extend my losses. Now lets wait for Draghi, as market awaits him too.(no movement, just consolidation...)

ADD: I think that if anyone has a short running in profit, it may be worth keeping it in a while, unless Draghi creates some full-madness spikes. The price tends to the downside, even though this is both EUR and USD negative. On M5 it looks like descending triangle, Rod's M15 MA's crossed, and cutting rates should not be bullish. May have no effect, but bullishness? Don't think so.
  • #7,345
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:34am Nov 3, 2011 8:34am
I don't believe in compounding interest that much. My account is still small so my fulltime work is my main income. If yours in around 20k+ then we're getting somewhere. Maybe if I can build mine to around 50k then I'll quit working and taking forex seriously instead.

And what I meant above is, if you have a win and you're in doubt of the analysis you've done or market changes direction etc.. then get out with a small win rather than a loss. That's my policy anyway. Cheers.

Quoting FXMindset
You dont need trade big in order to gain much even risk 1% per trade you will achieve all the dreams that you want
The Key : Compounding
  • #7,346
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:34am Nov 3, 2011 8:34am
Intensified DOWNSIDE risk
  • #7,347
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:34am Nov 3, 2011 8:34am
Quoting Blobik
Indeed. And in fact I just enough for a cake, as my scale-in attempt failed and eaten the profit But it means, I learned sth without paying tutition fees... Always add a trailing stop on a trade when it shoots in your direction And, reenter when price bounces back above your entry Man, this could be a lot of pips! But I was lucky not to extend my losses. Now lets wait for Draghi, as market awaits him too.(no movement, just consolidation...)
Before I like Trailing Stop but not for now because it cant max the profit rather sometimes it cut your profit quickly
For me Trailing stop would be better tool for catch Falling Knife Up & Down for UJ pair only - ever catch 500 pips before over two times at UJ pairs
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,348
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:35am Nov 3, 2011 8:35am
Quoting Pbh
Intensified DOWNSIDE risk
Downside revisions in forecasts very likely
  • #7,349
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:36am Nov 3, 2011 8:36am
Quoting jeff_b
I don't believe in compounding interest that much. My account is still small so my fulltime work is my main income. If yours in around 20k+ then we're getting somewhere. Maybe if I can build mine to around 50k then I'll quit working and taking forex seriously instead.

And what I meant above is, if you have a win and you're in doubt of the analysis you've done or market changes direction etc.. then get out with a small win rather than a loss. That's my policy anyway. Cheers.
Thats the mostly newbie mindset when enter market for hope - quickly gain much In the market.The Gift : margin Call
Simple - Dont do it if you dont believe it
My Rules : One Million always start from One Cent - One Million Miles always started from One Step
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,350
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:37am Nov 3, 2011 8:37am
Quoting FXMindset
Before I like Trailing Stop but not for now because it cant max the profit rather sometimes it cut your profit quickly
For me Trailing stop would be better tool for catch Falling Knife Up & Down for UJ pair only - ever catch 500 pips before over two times at UJ pairs
Well, it would certainly do better on a spike, than my SL at BE I should watch the trade, not run into the forum shouting "rate cut! rate cut! rate cut!"... But I just wanted you guys not to miss the event

ADD: Okay, for some reason, transmission lags incredibly. I don't have time to wait for it to end, got job to do. Maybe when I get back from work a nice scalping opportunity will materialise. If I get a short scalping opportunity, then maybe it will turn into a swing trade. Or maybe a position trade, you never know...

One more thing, I need to consider taking a bit bigger positions so I can scale them out (lowest allowed size obviously does not give this possibility), so that BE stops will still be winning But that will probably wait until I learn to get a little bit better entries, so I would feel comfortable with them... Well, so far a no-loss day.
  • #7,351
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:42am Nov 3, 2011 8:42am
Got it. I over-leveraged sometimes ago and learned the hard way. Didn't get margin call but lost over 50% equity. Now I'm trading small enough to weather big drawdown (in case of wrong analysis, I'm still newbie after all) to get out at break even, sometimes small profit. Been working alright so far. I'm taking one step at a time. Cheers.


Quoting FXMindset
Thats the mostly newbie mindset when enter market for hope - quickly gain much In the market.The Gift : margin Call
Simple - Dont do it if you dont believe it
My Rules : One Million always start from One Cent - One Million Miles always started from One Step
  • #7,352
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:43am Nov 3, 2011 8:43am
inflation rates are expected to decline further
  • #7,353
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:48am Nov 3, 2011 8:48am
Quoting jeff_b
Got it. I over-leveraged sometimes ago and learned the hard way. Didn't get margin call but lost over 50% equity. Now I'm trading small enough to weather big drawdown (in case of wrong analysis, I'm still newbie after all) to get out at break even, sometimes small profit. Been working alright so far. I'm taking one step at a time. Cheers.
Try grab this red Trendlines..
buy with 10 pips above red lines and 10 pips below red lines
Sell with 10 Pips below red lines and 30 pips above red lines
Risk 1%-2% each trade
Slowly you will know what I mean

Disclaimer : Trade with your own risk - my analysis might be wrong but you only risk 1-2% and have a greater RR (Risk Reward ratio).The Most Importantly you still have 99-98 Chance to enter the trade again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,354
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:49am Nov 3, 2011 8:49am
here it comess.... say it, say it
  • #7,355
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:49am Nov 3, 2011 8:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
I didn't say it was EUR positive. I said USD negative
why ?? return on risk has decreased..
  • #7,356
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:51am Nov 3, 2011 8:51am
Quoting Pbh
here it comess.... say it, say it
didn't say it , didn't answer if he's planning to cut rates next month... comee on, don't be silly reporters.. everybody wants to know it.
  • #7,357
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:52am Nov 3, 2011 8:52am
Quoting drtorque
why ?? return on risk has decreased..
we were talking about the 30 min effect.

But it's easy... it can become a series of rate cuts, and people are concerned of that, therefore buying USD
  • #7,358
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:54am Nov 3, 2011 8:54am
I wonder how the guys with the Risk on/off bots are going to feel tomorrow when they discover they have accumulated very large long EU positions....
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,359
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:55am Nov 3, 2011 8:55am
did you hear that? recession AHEAD
  • #7,360
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:57am Nov 3, 2011 8:57am
Apparently in the news feed, Draghi said EZ heading towards a mild recession with low inflation, meaning room for more cuts. Definitely risk off, EUR negative.
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