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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,221
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:32pm Nov 2, 2011 1:32pm
Positive Asian session ahead?
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  • #7,222
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:34pm Nov 2, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting nyfx718
When is the referendum? Wasn't someone saying that if they froze aid, greece might not have enough funds to make it to referendum and go bankrupt. Though that could be the best thing for EU in long run, wouldn't it add much uncertainty sourronding their currency causing it to drop, i.e. risk off.
There is no set date yet.
At first they said next spring, then they said early December and then they said January.
Now that they have a funding freeze until referendum, I say they have it very soon. Early December at the latest.

As for Greece going bankrupt, I think that is pretty well priced in. What is not priced in is the very high probability that they would take the other PIIS down with them.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,223
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:40pm Nov 2, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
There is no set date yet.
Now that they have a funding freeze until referendum, I say they have it very soon. Early December at the latest.

As for Greece going bankrupt, I think that is pretty well priced in. What is not priced in is the very high probability that they would take the other PIIS down with them.
Cutting off the flow of dope to Greece is a hazard if there are some debts that they have to pay in the interim - I think they got the last tranche (8bio euro?) - so maybe they are ok on debt repayment for a while. But if they are not and some deadlines come and they are not able to pay then they are in default, then the CD's on the unpaid bonds trigger, and there ya go, dominoes...

When I get back from the gym I will see if I can find out what their repayment schedule is on all outstanding loans...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,224
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:56pm Nov 2, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting The Fool
Cutting off the flow of dope to Greece is a hazard if there are some debts that they have to pay in the interim - I think they got the last tranche (8bio euro?) - so maybe they are ok on debt repayment for a while. But if they are not and some deadlines come and they are not able to pay then they are in default, then the CD's on the unpaid bonds trigger, and there ya go, dominoes...

When I get back from the gym I will see if I can find out what their repayment schedule is on all outstanding loans...
What about ECB, can't they turn to them, i mean Greece could sell bonds, and ecb would simply buy them, as is the case in italy, spain..., that would kick the can down the road. probably.
  • #7,225
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:00pm Nov 2, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting oceanis
What about ECB, can't they turn to them, i mean Greece could sell bonds, and ecb would simply buy them, as is the case in italy, spain..., that would kick the can down the road. probably.
The ECB is part of the Troika (EU/ECB/IMF) that would be freezing aid.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,226
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:14pm Nov 2, 2011 2:14pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Liveblog of cannes meeting can be followed at:
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/1...#axzz1caJRsRc2

Blogger wrote:
"Journalists have been given a tantalising glimpse of the room where George Papandreou is to be (beaten black and blue) hold discussions with his fellow leaders and it transpires the Greek PM is not alone after all (see 20.06)."
  • #7,227
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:44pm Nov 2, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting The Fool
When I get back from the gym I will see if I can find out what their repayment schedule is on all outstanding loans...
...not finding it - if anyone knows a source please post.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,228
  • Edited 4:34pm Nov 2, 2011 4:08pm | Edited 4:34pm
long euro @3720
SL @3705

revise: SL to 3680 damn
revise 2: SL 3665 lol
  • #7,229
  • Nov 2, 2011 4:18pm Nov 2, 2011 4:18pm
That what ya get when you let a donkeyfarmer in the boardroom merkel sarkozy.






Never have anything to do with an unlucky place, or an unlucky man. I have seen many clever men, very clever men, who had not shoes to their feet. I never act with them. Their advice sounds very well, but they cannot get on themselves; and if they cannot do good to themselves, how can they do good for me?
  • #7,230
  • Nov 2, 2011 4:19pm Nov 2, 2011 4:19pm
long too shorty haha
  • #7,231
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:18pm Nov 2, 2011 5:18pm
market turned out to have a losing asian session (at least until now). Specially for the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD.

reasons behind?

Really bad NZ data 45 mins after the Asian open... And now we are waiting for the AU retail sales m/m number

Let's see what happens

Pbh
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  • #7,232
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:30pm Nov 2, 2011 5:30pm
0.4% practically expected but still risk off
  • #7,233
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:46pm Nov 2, 2011 5:46pm
Too much data and the market is confused.
I know I am.
  • #7,234
  • Edited 10:22pm Nov 2, 2011 6:23pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This is possibly more Euro positive than negative because it gives the Greek gov an incentive to do a much better job at convincing the people to support its mandate... or else
Positive from a fundamental perspective yes...it will push a timely result with a positive outcome. From a psychological perspective (in the short term)... no. This is a game of chicken (exactly like the deficit ceiling debacle) and both sides are now all the way in. The effect of every little bit of news now will be magnified. And the overall result will be volatility with a downward bias.

Also, I would like to put forth our little bear flag which completed its second leg up and down yesterday. I am beginning to doubt that it will complete a third leg up... but we will see.

EDIT: With the last few "votes" of various types that the survival of the Euro depended upon, I found the market was a very good predictor of the outcome. It seemed like the big boys already knew the answer a few days before the vote was counted. You can be sure that the polling companies in Greece are being flooded by work commissioned by the various vested interests.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,235
  • Edited 7:08pm Nov 2, 2011 6:44pm | Edited 7:08pm
http://www.efxnews.com/story/6557/fe...t-overspending

It's time to the nation's leadership to mend its overspending ways, Fisher said. "Pliant fiscal authorities--Republican and Democrat--who have led us down this road for decades find themselves in a financial cul de sac; they have run out of enabling money," the central banker said.

I know there are a lot of Fed haters here... but the situation is not as simple as it seems. Also, since as everybody knows, the Fed loves banks more than it loves the people it is important to realize that the result of excessive monetization of debt is hyperinflation. And hyperinflation is a banking extinction event and so the Fed is incentivized in the extreme to avoid this.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,236
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:05pm Nov 2, 2011 10:05pm
Good Morning all - Still sleepy
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,237
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:13pm Nov 2, 2011 10:13pm
i never found a source that lays out a schedule for Greek loan maturities/payment due dates - but I read various places that they don't have a payment due in the time before the scheduled referendum.

Not expecting lots of action here this morning before the ECB announcement...may skip it & catch up on my beauty sleep
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,238
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:24pm Nov 2, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting The Fool
i never found a source that lays out a schedule for Greek loan maturities/payment due dates - but I read various places that they don't have a payment due in the time before the scheduled referendum.

Not expecting lots of action here this morning before the ECB announcement...may skip it & catch up on my beauty sleep
What r u expecting from Draghi?

my gut tells me 50 bps cut right off the bat.... zeee price stubeeliteeee is out of the head spot... no we have an ex-goldmantite italian... he may be a hawk, but Im not sure that hawkishness extends toward intrest rates.. more likely towards returning favors for his old bank cronies...
  • #7,239
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:27pm Nov 2, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting AaronWard
http://www.efxnews.com/story/6557/fe...t-overspending

It's time to the nation's leadership to mend its overspending ways, Fisher said. "Pliant fiscal authorities--Republican and Democrat--who have led us down this road for decades find themselves in a financial cul de sac; they have run out of enabling money," the central banker said.

I know there are a lot of Fed haters here... but the situation is not as simple as it seems. Also, since as everybody knows, the Fed loves banks more...
Fisher will be the new fed chairman when Ben is gone... I like the guy
  • #7,240
  • Nov 2, 2011 11:20pm Nov 2, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting Wulfgar
What r u expecting from Draghi?
...
i think they will cut, but maybe not so soon. expect at least some doveish words...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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