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  • #721
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:33am Oct 31, 2011 11:33am
Quoting Greenhaze
Congrats my friend ... good planning. BTW... it was pretty smart of BOJ to intervene on 31st, painting some strong buob on monthly tf.
Thanks, was a nice payout for sure.

Ha, I'm sure when they were discussing when would be most appropriate to intervene they were referring constantly to their charts and realised if they intervened on the last day of the month they'd get a monthly BUOB and thus this would help with their aim of weakening the Yen further.
  • #722
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:36am Oct 31, 2011 11:36am
Quote
I have been trying to figure out the rationale for your USD/CAD long and AUD/USD short but nothing concrete comes to mind. Would appreciate if you could share your thoughts. Thank you.

The reasoning was not wholly technical - but the technical reason can be explained by looking at the monthly chart.
  • #723
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:27pm Oct 31, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting lovejoy80
You targets look good to me, but I'm struggling to see a reason to buy the pair just because it closed above 1.5? I'd expect a reaction at the 1.5240 area as it's a very clear FTB setup.

Hi LJ

Thanks for the comment.

You must have noticed that the price reversed in the same area on September 7 and when DBLHC appeared in this region on October 28 (8H TF), I considered it as a bullish sign and went long.
Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #724
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:12am Nov 1, 2011 3:12am
Quoting prftablefool
Hi LJ

Thanks for the comment.

You must have noticed that the price reversed in the same area on September 7 and when DBLHC appeared in this region on October 28 (8H TF), I considered it as a bullish sign and went long.
Yes, I can see that now looking at your chart - I was focussing on my FxPro chart and couldn't see any PA confirmation but can see it now I looked again at your chart. Good entry - how have you managed the trade so far?
  • #725
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:14am Nov 1, 2011 3:14am
Quoting lovejoy80
You targets look good to me, but I'm struggling to see a reason to buy the pair just because it closed above 1.5? I'd expect a reaction at the 1.5240 area as it's a very clear FTB setup.
Textbook reaction as expected.
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  • #726
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:18am Nov 1, 2011 3:18am
Quoting lovejoy80
The reasoning was not wholly technical - but the technical reason can be explained by looking at the monthly chart.
If you can't see the reason then do not worry too much, there is plenty of more standard technical TT's happening every week including a couple yesterday...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #727
  • Nov 1, 2011 7:56pm Nov 1, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes, I can see that now looking at your chart - I was focussing on my FxPro chart and couldn't see any PA confirmation but can see it now I looked again at your chart. Good entry - how have you managed the trade so far?
Initially I opened up 2 lots and closed 1 lot when price started stalling at 1.5240, moving the second lot at BE. When price pierced through 1.5240 I added another 2 lots and at the moment price is again stalling as expected around 1.5500.

Though I added the addtional 2 lots at above 1.5240 but MT5 is spreading out the total price on 3 lots and showing the entry as 1.5182.

Again in the waiting mode to see how price is reacting around 1.5500.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #728
  • Nov 2, 2011 12:01am Nov 2, 2011 12:01am
Quoting lovejoy80
The reasoning was not wholly technical - but the technical reason can be explained by looking at the monthly chart.
If I understood it correctly you were playing USD's strength against the comm-dolls given BOJ's intervention. On the USD/CAD, I can figure out the supporting technical reason but not with the AUD/USD.

Quoting lovejoy80
If you can't see the reason then do not worry too much, there is plenty of more standard technical TT's happening every week including a couple yesterday...
Thank you for the standard technical TT examples. Could you please advise your initial SL & FTA on the NZD/USD TT?

I was filled on USD/CHF short but was instantly stopped out. I had my SL a few pips above the pin bar indicated by the red arrow on the attached chart. Do you think it was an incorrect choice for SL placement? Would appreciate your inputs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #729
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:15am Nov 2, 2011 3:15am
Quoting prftablefool
Initially I opened up 2 lots and closed 1 lot when price started stalling at 1.5240, moving the second lot at BE. When price pierced through 1.5240 I added another 2 lots and at the moment price is again stalling as expected around 1.5500.

Though I added the addtional 2 lots at above 1.5240 but MT5 is spreading out the total price on 3 lots and showing the entry as 1.5182.

Again in the waiting mode to see how price is reacting around 1.5500.
Sounds good to me - I like the mindset of looking to add to a winning trade whilst banking profit and protecting capital along the way - it's right mindset to have.

Unfortunately a lot of traders can't open their mind enough to do this and the poor traders will go further than this and add to losing positions and close their trades when they are in the slightest of profits - a sure fire way to blow an account at some point.
  • #730
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:31am Nov 2, 2011 3:31am
Quote
If I understood it correctly you were playing USD's strength against the comm-dolls given BOJ's intervention. On the USD/CAD, I can figure out the supporting technical reason but not with the AUD/USD.

Post your monthly chart with S/R's attached and we'll go from there...


Quote
Thank you for the standard technical TT examples. Could you please advise your initial SL & FTA on the NZD/USD TT?

I didn't take it - I haven't taken any trades this week yet, what with the very large wins at the start of the week (they were 6 figure wins) I've taken a few days off to catch up with some month end fund related work and an enjoying the break.

Post a chart annotating with where you would put your SL and what your FLS was and I'll provide my comments.

Quote
I was filled on USD/CHF short but was instantly stopped out. I had my SL a few pips above the pin bar indicated by the red arrow on the attached chart. Do you think it was an incorrect choice for SL placement? Would appreciate your inputs.

It is frustrating when you pick a good entry but get stopped out by a few pips before price moves your way - the setup was fine, it's one we identified in the trading group yesterday. In terms of SL placement - see my annotated chart below.

Lastly, another setup that we discussed yesterday - bit of a no brainer.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #731
  • Edited 8:32am Nov 2, 2011 8:29am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting lovejoy80
Post your monthly chart with S/R's attached and we'll go from there...
Please find attached the USD/CAD & AUD/USD monthly charts. I am pretty certain that you will find that my S/R levels are fewer than yours, but I am really grateful for this opportunity as I will be able to learn how you plot your S/R levels. I notice from studying your charts all this time that I don't have all the S/R levels you have so please kindly bear with me.

Quoting lovejoy80
I didn't take it - I haven't taken any trades this week yet, what with the very large wins at the start of the week (they were 6 figure wins) I've taken a few days off to catch up with some month end fund related work and an enjoying the break.
Well, of course... Must be lots of fun, but you really deserve it. I am happy for you and hopefully everyone learning from you here (me included ) will be able to do the same in the near future.

Quoting lovejoy80
Post a chart annotating with where you would put your SL and what your FLS was and I'll provide my comments.
Please also find NZD/USD chart attached.

Quoting lovejoy80
It is frustrating when you pick a good entry but get stopped out by a few pips before price moves your way - the setup was fine, it's one we identified in the trading group yesterday. In terms of SL placement - see my annotated chart below.
Yes, it's frustrating but it's good to know my faults so that the same error will not be made again next time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #732
  • Nov 2, 2011 9:56am Nov 2, 2011 9:56am
Quote
Please find attached the USD/CAD & AUD/USD monthly charts. I am pretty certain that you will find that my S/R levels are fewer than yours, but I am really grateful for this opportunity as I will be able to learn how you plot your S/R levels. I notice from studying your charts all this time that I don't have all the S/R levels you have so please kindly bear with me.

Look at my monthly and weekly AU chart - can you now see the technical reason as to why I shorted from where I did? As I said the reason wasn't purely technical but as you can see this was a key resistance area for AU.

Quote
Please also find NZD/USD chart attached.

SL and TP levels all look good to me.
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  • #733
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:01am Nov 3, 2011 2:01am
Another easy TT setup yesterday on GU - retrace to broken TL + higher TF S/R plus fibs.

Followed by 1HR BEOB to act as confirmation / add another position.

Was the BEOB a higher probability setup than the TT - you'd only think it was if you don't understand how and why price moves like it does.
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  • #734
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:55am Nov 3, 2011 8:55am
Quoting lovejoy80
Look at my monthly and weekly AU chart - can you now see the technical reason as to why I shorted from where I did? As I said the reason wasn't purely technical but as you can see this was a key resistance area for AU.
Yes, I can see the key resistance area but it is the entry trigger that interests me. Let me speculate: you placed a sell limit after the long bearish bar (indicated on below attached chart) was formed in order to get an entry on a retrace. Please also advise where you had your initial SL. Was it above the previous swing high?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #735
  • Nov 3, 2011 8:59am Nov 3, 2011 8:59am
Quoting lovejoy80
Another easy TT setup yesterday on GU - retrace to broken TL + higher TF S/R plus fibs.
Missed that... took this one instead with TPs at the grey rectangles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #736
  • Nov 3, 2011 3:19pm Nov 3, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting supra
Missed that... took this one instead with TPs at the grey rectangles.
It was a good FTB - not sure about your fib though, not really a swing high in my eyes.
  • #737
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:16pm Nov 3, 2011 11:16pm
Quoting lovejoy80
It was a good FTB - not sure about your fib though, not really a swing high in my eyes.
It was from an hourly swing high, please see attached chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #738
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:46am Nov 4, 2011 3:46am
Quoting supra
Yes, I can see the key resistance area but it is the entry trigger that interests me. Let me speculate: you placed a sell limit after the long bearish bar (indicated on below attached chart) was formed in order to get an entry on a retrace. Please also advise where you had your initial SL. Was it above the previous swing high?
There was no trigger bar - it was a positional touch trade - a swing trade, based on the technical location I mentioned previously combined with a conviction that this area would hold as resistance given how price has been moving all summer on the USD pairs. The risk/reward was attractive too.

Here was my original entry and SL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #739
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:47am Nov 4, 2011 3:47am
Quoting supra
It was from an hourly swing high, please see attached chart.
Looks better on the hourly chart - still not a classical swing high IMO, but each to their own - but it was a good FTB TT setup though.
  • #740
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:51am Nov 4, 2011 3:51am
New Blog post following various requests to explain my reasoning behind my set of UJ trades.

Those who can follow the reasoning should realise that there is another pair with similar dynamics but more longer term - I've been buying this pair fairly aggressively lately.
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