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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,021
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:55pm Nov 1, 2011 9:55pm
miza ..................

the EW great trader ..............
Quoting smilemiz
me ..bear swing
everytime i saw ur avatar, it makes me smile n happy..dont change it

is this a new thread..ah . i am new too.. my name is miza.. plz teach me anything about fx trading

this is my 1st post.. greeting me
not euphoria follower
  • #7,022
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:59pm Nov 1, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting smilemiz
me ..bear swing
everytime i saw ur avatar, it makes me smile n happy..dont change it

is this a new thread..ah . i am new too.. my name is miza.. plz teach me anything about fx trading

this is my 1st post.. greeting me
full story here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post5093416
  • #7,023
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:28pm Nov 1, 2011 10:28pm
Hey Gofer, we've been missing you. I began to worry that you loved bird houses so much, you decided to take up buying them full time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,024
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:33pm Nov 1, 2011 10:33pm
My friends just send me an email and I think its great to share in here and for everyone"

"You need patience to use any trading strategy successfully. The value of patience will forever be emphasized. Losing trades happen quickly; winning trades take time to develop.
Trading legends are not those who double their accounts always, but those who make presentably consistent profits over a long period of time. These traders have good years and bad years, good months and bad months, and good weeks and bad weeks. The most important thing during a losing period is for a trader to suffer as little drawdown as possible. If your drawdown is very small, then recovery would be very easy when the market condition becomes favorable. If you happen to examine a live account history (not back-tested or curve-fitted results) of any successful trader, you would see losses and profits, plus how the trader has moved ahead irrespective of those losses. The lesson is straightforward: a good trading system will intermittently experience drawdowns, but will recover ultimately. It also means that part of the accumulated profit would sometimes be given away. For example, one trading system uses the initial Stop of 5%, has a maximum drawdown of -20.01%, annualized gain of 29.63%, net profit of 373.86% in several years, and average winning trades of 49.47%. This is still a good result which recovered irrespective of drawdowns. Trading rookies and impatient traders may conclude that a trading system is bad during a period of drawdown or a losing month or year. A trading system that worked well in the past would soon survive any present losing streak. You should not abandon your great trading idea because of a losing streak: just as you should not abandon a loving, caring, faithful, honest and humble spouse because of a mistake on their part. Someone who treated you well in the past might continue doing so in future in spite of occasional shortcomings on their part. If you abandon your good system for another, you would soon experience drawdowns with your newly-found system; just like someone who experiences the same problem with a new mate after divorcing the former good mate. A professional trader may go through consecutive losing months, but he can recover at last and move ahead. He knows the most important thing in trend following is to keep losses very small and ride winners. He does not abandon his strategy simply because of transient losing streaks.
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,025
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:42pm Nov 1, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Pbh..... you little spanish hat dancer! I am getting disappointed with your updates! ....Too few and far between.
Yes, completely right... I had been too busy doing something else, but I might get over it after two days or so. I had only come to news trade..

And HEY! your EA must have been trading great for ya. Cuz we'd got strong and one-sided sentiments, where it works the best at (my brain also works the best at them)

I was missing you too.

Hope to see more posts of yours (and mine as well )

Pbh
  • #7,026
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:46pm Nov 1, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting FXMindset
You should not abandon your great trading idea because of a losing streak: just as you should not abandon a loving, caring, faithful, honest and humble spouse because of a mistake on their part. Someone who treated you well in the past might continue doing so in future in spite of occasional shortcomings on their part. If you abandon your good system for another, you would soon experience drawdowns with your newly-found system; just like someone who experiences the same problem with a new mate after divorcing the former good mate.
And that's where the Mindset workshop is most important
  • #7,027
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:48pm Nov 1, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting bumapatria
its called a sombrero!!
do we have a like button? lol
  • #7,028
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:00pm Nov 1, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting JLinder
I shorted @ 1.3673 and had a SL @ 1.3710 (above the last 15 minute high).
I would rather be looking to short at the Asian close.

Pbh
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  • #7,029
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:07pm Nov 1, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting smilemiz
is this a new thread..ah . i am new too.. my name is miza.. plz teach me anything about fx trading
Hello miza, I'm pedro

Welcome

Well, you are pretty covered with fundamentals here. Everything you need to know might be posted and explained by the members.

This week is the most important week of the the month, due to so many high-impact news releases, including the NFP on friday

Just don't overtrade or overleverage. Depending on your trading style the leverage can change, like a usual 1:2 for swing trading compared to a normal 1:5 leverage for scalping... It all depends on your risks, and the likely called Pain/reward ratio

Pbh
  • #7,030
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:33pm Nov 1, 2011 11:33pm
I'll only post my hourly... I am sure we have access to all the same charts.

On the weekly + daily you see a falling knife and a trend reversal signal. Typically a falling knife is followed by a period of volatility trending downward. So lot of ups and downs, but the downs will be a bit more violent and determined.

On the four hour and the hour you see a picture perfect bear flag. If this plays out it will take us through the day and into tomorrow. And this perfectly matches the fundamental theme of today... major volatility in an upward channel before 2 major rate changes and in the shadow of the NFP. This will also allow us to form the missing right shoulder of the head and shoulders on the daily chart.

From the psychological perspective, I seeing a million PTs out there praying that it will reach 1.395 so they can hit it with a hammer with everything they have. And two million Rods who just want to scalp. So lots of up and down. A bit more up today, and a lot more down later in the week.

From a fundamental perspective I see some US QE and no ECB rate change already priced in the market from last months power drive north. Only a major QE package from the US has the potential to change the current downward direction. And this is unlikely but not impossible. And once the rate decision is out of the way, the Greek mess has the potential to deliver a lot more bad news.

Safe trading.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,031
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:40pm Nov 1, 2011 11:40pm
folks anybody has experience with Alpari & oanda? web is full of negative comments for both..
  • #7,032
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:43pm Nov 1, 2011 11:43pm
Quoting AaronWard
Only a major QE package from the US has the potential to change the current downward direction. And this is unlikely but not impossible. And once the rate decision is out of the way, the Greek mess has the potential to deliver a lot more bad news.

Safe trading.
Last FOMC meeting, the members said that they evaluated the possibility of a QE3, but decided that it's not necessary right now. Same words...

Pbh
  • #7,033
  • Nov 2, 2011 12:00am Nov 2, 2011 12:00am
Recently Euro is very active, trending and have a big daily range, and I'm so interesting in EuroUsd.
this is my simple analysis, based on H1 timeframe.

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The target is about 1.3787-1.3825, after the price reach this supply level it will continue the downmove to about 1.3453-1.3513.

Best regards,

Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #7,034
  • Edited 1:03am Nov 2, 2011 12:35am | Edited 1:03am
Quoting AaronWard
I seeing a million PTs out there praying that it will reach 1.395 so they can hit it with a hammer with everything they have. And two million Rods who just want to scalp. So lots of up and down. A bit more up today, and a lot more down later in the week.
Weekly - Longer term down channel and short term up channel. Trend lines suggest price is accelerating to the down side. Price has been range bound for several years and is consolidating. Most recent fresh supply and demand levels both held and revesed price.
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Daily - demand level @ 1.3665 - 1.3574 held once again. Resistance level around 1.3950-1.3970 is where a lot of traders are watching for a retrace to short again. Through resistance there is a fresh supply level @ 1.4137 - 1.4256 and trend line resistance.
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240 - I have laid out some nice looking fresh supply levels. 1.3950 resistance area is very clear to see here.
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60 - I have again laid out supply levels here. Ironicly the 1st 3 supply levels on a trip north each line up perfectly with a fib level on this last trip south with the 1.3950 resistance area and 50% fib both in the second supply level up from current price. CCI divergence from price action during this whole trip south tells me no real momentum on this panic selling.
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One thing to think about that "The Fool" and I breifly touched on last night answering a question posted here with all the bearish sentiment and fundamental problems is why the market keeps rallying on hopium. My quote... "Money seeks yield. Investors don't want money parked in low yield currencies and bonds or just sitting in the bank making next to nothing in interest. When they get a glimpse of hope they move into higher yielding currencies and other riskier investments hoping for a better ROI."

Don't forget that the US dollar has been on a very, very long term down trend that has lasted almost 10 years. Countries are like companies and it takes years to turn long term trend around. There is no quick fix to a countries problems, it ain't like turning around a small mom and pop business.

I'm not placing a limit order yet as I have a fairly heavy position on $CAD short right now but I am watching each of these levels for a ride south.

I think I'm going to get away from a lot of the intraday trading I do and do more swing trading. Much more relaxed. I hate being tied to the computer and getting nothing else done.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #7,035
  • Nov 2, 2011 12:41am Nov 2, 2011 12:41am
I'd like to stay, but gotta sleep to wake up at 5:30 EST for news, see you around

Pbh
  • #7,036
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:02am Nov 2, 2011 1:02am
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...-left-building

Very interesting read. But at the end of it I found myself thinking that the unprecedented sell off of treasuries by foreign CBs had more to do with the need to create liquidity than anything else.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,037
  • Edited 2:45am Nov 2, 2011 1:49am | Edited 2:45am
Good morning.

I see yesterdays NY H4 finally closed below 36664, only to spike up to monthly Pivot at 3745. Thats just great. Damn those NY crowds.

Anyway. Pending sell at 3745, 0,4% risk, SL 3770, TP1 3670, TP2 open.

Going to work, cya later,

T.

edit for PK - standing on tracks again? http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

1 more edit: I arrived and am sitting in office again.
Very nice analysis PK! Didnt you say you dont do fundamentals?
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,038
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:14am Nov 2, 2011 2:14am
Buy stop @ 1.3770 Sl 1.3720 - Risk 1% Tp : Open - Trailing 100 Pips
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #7,039
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:41am Nov 2, 2011 2:41am
Quoting FXMindset
Buy stop @ 1.3770 Sl 1.3720 - Risk 1% Tp : Open - Trailing 100 Pips
Is that your bull face? I thought you thought...that it was on its way down to 1.25 or thereabouts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #7,040
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:42am Nov 2, 2011 2:42am
Will be an interesting day.
Had thought we were going to get some kind of risk rally or neutral day yesterday in equities. ie: market was looking for some kind of easing from the Fed and the ECB. The ending day negative print says the market is watching something else. Maybe the MF Global is the forewarning of imminent banking problems.

The news out of Europe just keeps coming up poor.
We appear to be entering a range as the 1.3750 resistance is holding.
1.3600 level has shown support.
Any weakness in the USD is being bought. This level is being tested as of this post. If it fails I will exit my short.

One would think that a rally in risk was/is very likely given upcoming events. That it has not been a directional move is why I am still holding the shorts.
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