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  • #556,781
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:24pm Nov 1, 2011 12:24pm
Guys...is this Greece's way of saying: "don't push us, or you can kiss our a--" ?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #556,782
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:25pm Nov 1, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Guys...is this Greece's way of saying: "don't push us, or you can kiss our a--" ?

The thing is though that there is no legal way to leave either the EU or the euro, they can't just say bugger off we go on our own.

Post Lisbon, no country can unilaterally leave. The EU can kick them out, but they can't depart on their own accord.

Greece has to choose the lesser of two evils, either get help on restructuring without trickering the CDS's or default at which point each and every Greek bank will be bankrupt at the stroke of a pen.

Without the bailout Greece is fecked for the next 5 generations, with the bailout they are only fecked for the next 2...

If you really drill down into the problem, it was never about Greece.
  • #556,783
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:31pm Nov 1, 2011 12:31pm
While “a lot of people don't have the discipline to trade without stops," Angell said he doesn't use them. "The problem with
stop trading is that you get out at the worst possible moment. Instead of stops, I use action points. That means when it hits that
point I'll get out, but I'll wait for the bounce (if the market is going down)" Angell explained.
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #556,784
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:31pm Nov 1, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting cloggie
The thing is though that there is no legal way to leave either the EU or the euro, they can't just say bugger off we go on our own.

Post Lisbon, no country can unilaterally leave. The EU can kick them out, but they can't depart on their own accord.

If you really drill down into the problem, it was never about Greece.
yeah but they can unilaterally default on their debt and tear the whole damn thing down...same difference...

I agree there's something deeper going on and Greece plays the poster boy rather well...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #556,785
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:32pm Nov 1, 2011 12:32pm
now watch it rocket up... or down
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #556,786
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:33pm Nov 1, 2011 12:33pm
Expecting an upwards move first. Then shorting EUR/USD from next demand zone.
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/79/42421417.gif
http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/5551/91998910yb.gif
  • #556,787
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:34pm Nov 1, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
yeah but they can unilaterally default on their debt and tear the whole damn thing down...same difference...

I agree there's something deeper going on and Greece plays the poster boy rather well...

The majority of the domestic debt is held by banks/pension funds and insurance companies, defaulting will push them over the edge, defaulting will also increase their rates when they come back to the market, only a subsidised controlled voluntary default will work for them, the bankers know it, the economists know it, the politicians are worried about getting re elected and not about doing the right thing.

The EFSF is not about Greece, they only need about 200Bn, it is all about Italy and Spain, the EFSF will keep the rates down. Greece defaulting on their own will not make the real problem go away.

The biggest problem they got is that when they default on their own, they are still stuck in the EU and EMU so still cannot devalue themselves out of debt, no way to monetise it when you can't control your own currency.
  • #556,788
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:34pm Nov 1, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting cloggie
The thing is though that there is no legal way to leave either the EU or the euro, they can't just say bugger off we go on our own.

Post Lisbon, no country can unilaterally leave. The EU can kick them out, but they can't depart on their own accord.

If you really drill down into the problem, it was never about Greece.
If the Greek referendum fails to vote in the proposals, for whatever reason, would you anticipate the EU kicking them out? As far as a fundamental goes, I imagine the markets would react with a sell off of euros in the belief that the rest of the eurozone is about to dip into deeper problems as Greece's debt problems spread (or at least that's how it's explained in the news). But would there be a fundamental reason to react when the member states hypothetically tell Greece to get out then? I would imagine perhaps a buy spike as market players see it as one less troublesome state in the way of EZ stability?

I definitely don't know much about the fundamentals of this should this occur, but I'd be interested to hear your take on my scenario.
  • #556,789
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:37pm Nov 1, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting micho
got 3 positions long open at 1.3714 stop below 1.3675 targets 1.3788... 1.3847 1.3942
dont imitate me otherwise you will lose all your money
40 pips risk is not bad, i will follow you with a 0.05 lot long.
  • #556,790
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:39pm Nov 1, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting factorof2
If the Greek referendum fails to vote in the proposals, for whatever reason, would you anticipate the EU kicking them out? As far as a fundamental goes, I imagine the markets would react with a sell off of euros in the belief that the rest of the eurozone is about to dip into deeper problems as Greece's debt problems spread (or at least that's how it's explained in the news). But would there be a fundamental reason to react when the member states hypothetically tell Greece to get out then? I would imagine perhaps a buy spike as market players see...

The EU does not want to kick them out, that will tantamount to involuntary default and will trigger the CDS's with all the consequences for French and German banks.

We are in a bit of a stale mate here, the EU still has the upper hand though. Even if they vote no on the referendum, the EU can still push through the voluntary part of the default thereby safeguarding their own banks, with Greece not getting a penny to help them out, which will cost them more.

The debt problem has already spread, Italy today reached the highest on their 10yr since euro inception and have gone over the magic hurdle of 6%, German/Italian bonds have widened significantly and Italian CDS are only going one way. Milan had its biggest losses among any of the EU bourses.

Greece hasn't really been the problem for weeks, they are just the start of the solution. The problem is that the Greek politicians are too chicken to sell it to their population and are unwilling to make tough choices hiding behind a referendum instead.
  • #556,791
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:42pm Nov 1, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting cloggie
The majority of the domestic debt is held by banks/pension funds and insurance companies, defaulting will push them over the edge, defaulting will also increase their rates when they come back to the market, only a subsidised controlled voluntary default will work for them, the bankers know it, the economists know it, the politicians are worried about getting re elected and not about doing the right thing.

The EFSF is not about Greece, they only need about 200Bn, it is all about Italy and Spain, the EFSF will keep the rates down. Greece defaulting...
Exactly that's the point the only way for Greece to get out of this mess (the operative word here is for Greece not for the core countries) is to default and the chain reaction will take care of the EMU and they'll be out of slavery eventually ... be it at a cost of higher rates and so on ... otherwise it'll be nightmare on end for them...their leaders will realize this sooner or later and as it seems much sooner than we might have thought
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #556,792
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:43pm Nov 1, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting cloggie
The EU does not want to kick them out, that will tantamount to involuntary default and will trigger the CDS's with all the consequences for French and German banks.

We are in a bit of a stale mate here, the EU still has the upper hand though. Even if they vote no on the referendum, the EU can still push through the voluntary part of the default thereby safeguarding their own banks, with Greece not getting a penny to help them out, which will cost them more.
Oh, okay then. The real first thought in my head after I read the news of a possible Greek referendum was that it seemed a bit like a measuring contest between the Greek PM and the EU. Even the rhetoric didn't make a whole lot of sense for the situation they seem to be in. Claiming that Greek people know what's best and they trust their citizens and so on. Like you said, I really just got the feeling that it was a political stunt to gain public approval or to just be difficult in the face of stiff measures proposed by the rest of the member states.
  • #556,793
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:43pm Nov 1, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting cloggie
The EU does not want to kick them out, that will tantamount to involuntary default and will trigger the CDS's with all the consequences for French and German banks.

We are in a bit of a stale mate here, the EU still has the upper hand though. Even if they vote no on the referendum, the EU can still push through the voluntary part of the default thereby safeguarding their own banks, with Greece not getting a penny to help them out, which will cost them more.

The debt problem has already spread, Italy today reached the highest on their 10yr...
hey brother hows it going
  • #556,794
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:44pm Nov 1, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Exactly that's the point the only way for Greece to get out of this mess is to default the change reaction will take care of the EMU and they'll be out of slavery eventually ... be it at a cost of higher rates and so ... otherwise it'll be nightmare on end for them...their leaders will realize this sooner or later and as it seems much sooner than we might have thought

You can't default without devaluing and they can't because they will still be in the EMU.

They can only default if the EU will let them go back to the Drachma, and I don't see Germany and France agreeing to that if the Greeks pursue this direction.
  • #556,795
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:45pm Nov 1, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting factorof2
Oh, okay then. The real first thought in my head after I read the news of a possible Greek referendum was that it seemed a bit like a measuring contest between the Greek PM and the EU. Even the rhetoric didn't make a whole lot of sense for the situation they seem to be in. Claiming that Greek people know what's best and they trust their citizens and so on. Like you said, I really just got the feeling that it was a political stunt to gain public approval or to just be difficult in the face of stiff measures proposed by the rest of the member states....

The whole referendum thing is just silly, a domestic PR stunt by Mr. P. Everybody outside of Greece knows they have no choice.
  • #556,796
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:46pm Nov 1, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting fxjawn
hey brother hows it going

Going well, home alone, wasting a bit of time, back on the farm.
  • #556,797
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm
MR P just announced he will hold a referendum. Reported on Reuters, but I guess I don't need them anymore as the whole move of this pair is driven by a conspiracy and not by news.


Guess this move was not triggered by news then was it Flavour kid?
  • #556,798
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting cloggie
The whole referendum thing is just silly, a domestic PR stunt by Mr. P. Everybody outside of Greece knows they have no choice.
Hahaha, well I'm glad I was right about that when I read it. I literally just laughed at it and wondered if he was one of those crazy people the Alfred from The Dark Knight was talking about? :-P
  • #556,799
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm Nov 1, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting cloggie
Going well, home alone, wasting a bit of time, back on the farm.
nice... good to see ya... make that money man
  • #556,800
  • Nov 1, 2011 12:49pm Nov 1, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting cloggie
MR P just announced he will hold a referendum. Reported on Reuters, but I guess I don't need them anymore as the whole move of this pair is driven by a conspiracy and not by news.


Guess this move was not triggered by news then was it Flavour kid?

Greek 1 yr just hit 205%, guess that wasn't news driven either was it?
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