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AUD/USD

  • #35,201
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:11am Nov 1, 2011 5:11am
alrighty guys we have manufacturing PMI numbers coming out of america in 4 hours. the equivalent data that came out of china today was not good and most if not all of us saw the effect it had on this pair. what confused me is that it didnt seem to have much effect on the euro at the time and that region is china's biggest export recipient. but i'll leave that for the euro thread..

the estimate is for a small improvement on last month, if we miss estimates though prepare for this to just join the list of bad news today and watch this pair ride to parity. on the other hand, an improvement probably wont be enough to turn this pair around just yet. to sum up what im saying: i really only see this pair going in one direction tonight.


Quoting rafiqhidayat
Good trading day today.. after a few days of 20 pip trading days, managed to secure about 170 pips today...
congratulations champion keep raking those pips
  • #35,202
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:39am Nov 1, 2011 5:39am
Quoting taxe91
alrighty guys we have manufacturing PMI numbers coming out of america in 4 hours. the equivalent data that came out of china today was not good and most if not all of us saw the effect it had on this pair. what confused me is that it didnt seem to have much effect on the euro at the time and that region is china's biggest export recipient. but i'll leave that for the euro thread..

the estimate is for a small improvement on last month, if we miss estimates though prepare for this to just join the list of bad news today and watch this pair ride...
PMI is suppose to be good. That is the consensus...so that means risk on..agree? Suppose to be a blow out number.

I would be soon to buy this puppy.....just my opinion.
  • #35,203
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:53am Nov 1, 2011 5:53am
Quoting western
PMI is suppose to be good. That is the consensus...so that means risk on..agree?
exactly right mate. but chinese PMI was supposed to be good too so tread carefully if you're thinking of jumping back long on a risk pair like this.

should also note though that we're in the middle of some powerful bear momentum.
lets take a quick look at the things that have contributed to the last two days:

- skepticism rising in regards to the euro debt deal
- unsatisfactory chinese PMI numbers
- an australian rate cut coupled with the head of our reserve bank citing a growth slowdown in 2012/2013
- a greek referendum on the bailout today (its being interpreted as acceptance by the greeks that the eu summit was unsuccessful
- euro equities are down about 8% on the week i believe, more importantly the ny equities are going to struggle tonight as well.

as much as it takes to create and continue a trend (in this case a downward one) it takes more to reverse it. im looking at the fed release on thursday as the only scheduled news this week with the potential to reverse this.

hope you found part (if not all!) of this helpful. should get back to studying for my finals now.
  • #35,204
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:26am Nov 1, 2011 6:26am
Quoting taxe91
exactly right mate. but chinese PMI was supposed to be good too so tread carefully if you're thinking of jumping back long on a risk pair like this.

should also note though that we're in the middle of some powerful bear momentum.
lets take a quick look at the things that have contributed to the last two days:

- skepticism rising in regards to the euro debt deal
- unsatisfactory chinese PMI numbers
- an australian rate cut coupled with the head of our reserve bank citing a growth slowdown in 2012/2013
- a greek referendum on the bailout today...
Unless the USD related news are mind blowing, I agree with you that I do see this going down close to parity (maybe even by Friday)
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,205
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:37am Nov 1, 2011 6:37am
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Unless the USD related news are mind blowing, I agree with you that I do see this going down close to parity (maybe even by Friday)
yes indeed. the most prominent lesson ive learned in my (very short) forex experiences though is that you can never get too comfortable in one direction, so yeah im looking at all the US unemployment results the next two days, and of course the fed conference as two factors that could combine to get the bulls up and running.
of course some positive europe news could turn us around as well but do they have anything to be positive about right now?
  • #35,206
  • Nov 1, 2011 7:06am Nov 1, 2011 7:06am
  •  Oz4x
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: "Everybody Wants Some!" - Roth | 76 Posts
Quoting Oz4x
Added short at new H1. Clean break of LTL and Fib.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1320124531

GL
Broke support zone, 100% fib and closed below 1.0300.

Added to short below zone @ H1.

Target 1.0100. Watching PA and psych levels for now.

GL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,207
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:10am Nov 1, 2011 8:10am
Fundamentally speaking my arse :

since RBA lowered interest rate ( and indicates more lowering in the future), new highs will be lower than before ,i don't expect to see aud topping 1.07 anymore. New lows will probably be formed soon following any bad news from Euro I expect new lows to be around 0.92.

More or less the forex markets is volatile now, i recommend taking shorts near highs, taking longs near lows.
  • #35,208
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:26am Nov 1, 2011 8:26am
Quoting rnegoro
Fundamentally speaking my arse :

since RBA lowered interest rate ( and indicates more lowering in the future), new highs will be lower than before ,i don't expect to see aud topping 1.07 anymore. New lows will probably be formed soon following any bad news from Euro I expect new lows to be around 0.92.

More or less the forex markets is volatile now, i recommend taking shorts near highs, taking longs near lows.
My personal opinion is that a .25 cut is in preparation for the worst. You may be right long term depending on fundamentals. But judging by what is going on in europe...it could be the start. Also china releases dismal data. RBA does have a habit of getting things right. If they knock a .50 or 1.00 cut in december...Watch out below.

But as of NOW, funds will buy on dips in a trending currency......so I expect a rebound.
  • #35,209
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:00am Nov 1, 2011 9:00am
Quoting rnegoro
Fundamentally speaking my arse :

since RBA lowered interest rate ( and indicates more lowering in the future), new highs will be lower than before ,i don't expect to see aud topping 1.07 anymore. New lows will probably be formed soon following any bad news from Euro I expect new lows to be around 0.92.

More or less the forex markets is volatile now, i recommend taking shorts near highs, taking longs near lows.
That's a bit harsh now.
  • #35,210
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:36am Nov 1, 2011 9:36am
Quoting deanoracer
beginning to build a short position... short 2 small lots 10580... SL 10640... target 10480... will load up 2 more small lots at 10610 with same sl and target... a Bull on thursday for 102 pips, now switching camps - going w/bears today with smaller lots... see what happens... good luck with your trades everyone
well, all lots to the target.... 16hrs of trade time and my best result to date as a forex trader... total of 460 pips on 4 lots... hope I can duplicate that often...
  • #35,211
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:42am Nov 1, 2011 10:42am
Greeks might not want to pay even 50% of their debt

Not trying to be cynical, but if a default on Greek bonds occur, what is to prevent aud from reaching new lows ?
  • #35,212
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:04am Nov 1, 2011 11:04am
how i'm seeing it

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1320163267
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #35,213
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:09am Nov 1, 2011 11:09am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment




....... other sells

Attachment

Attachment


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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closed sell
  • #35,214
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:30pm Nov 1, 2011 3:30pm
128 Pips lastnite, short 1.04104 - 1.02825. i was a little late getting in after the rate cut decision since the race that stops the nation was on which i also did well in.

i watched it bounce of 1.282 once lastnite. was about to call it quits and it was bounching off it again half hour later thus the pin was pulled and called it a night..
  • #35,215
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:48pm Nov 1, 2011 4:48pm
AUD/USD 1.0330

Beware of Greeks RECEIVING gifts..

This whole European saga is becoming a comedy festival and it looks like the only one who speaks common sense is Borat.

As I said the market has been right but the problem was the cost.

1.0270 should find support for today with 1.0380 capping

Failure to hold 1.0270 presents 1.0230 and a rough ride to parity.

Good luck
  • #35,216
  • Nov 1, 2011 7:41pm Nov 1, 2011 7:41pm
A weaker than expect building approvals has taken the AUD back below 1.0300.

Market will be wary of FOMC going aggressively short ( but is that the way they are thinking too?)

1.0270 1.0230 are the supports.
  • #35,217
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:09pm Nov 1, 2011 8:09pm
looks like a blatant double bottom at 0800 on the 1H
  • #35,218
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:24pm Nov 1, 2011 8:24pm
Quoting taxe91
looks like a blatant double bottom at 0800 on the 1H
the time in between isn't enough to warrant it as a double bottom.

just some consolidation and retracement i guess, although it seems that risk is on in this asian session
  • #35,219
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:26pm Nov 1, 2011 8:26pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45119711

Well, Papa probably wants greeks to stop the strikes and violence, once the vote is done, and they voted OK for the bailout, markets will be bullish again.

Even with the bailout and the haircut, it's hard for Greece to repay their debts.
  • #35,220
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:33pm Nov 1, 2011 8:33pm
Lining up a short around the 1.0400 area for reasons shown in the chart... is that enough confluence?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1nov11aud2.jpg Size: 105 KB
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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