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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,761
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:20am Nov 1, 2011 5:20am
We have a runaway bear on the AUD/USD so the news out of China is suggesting that Asia economy is weakening. Tipping point is achieved. Moving from growth to debt problems.

If this pair gets support then market believes that it is a short term action.
But without growth from someplace on the Earth this debt thing is headed for a much larger version of the US mortgage crisis.

Am attempting to add my perspective to all the others
  • #6,762
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:21am Nov 1, 2011 5:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sorry I have to disagree with you on this.

The FOMC's mandate is not the confidence in the stock markets nor is it the value of the Euro or the USD.

Their mandate is Employment and inflation.

If the ADP and NFP employment numbers come out as expected or greater, then QE3 is definitely off the table for now, no matter how the markets react.
Hope you are right. But I keep thinking about 1987 and about 9/11. Stock market crashes = CB intervention. Stabilizing markets is definitely part of the unofficial mandate of the Fed. We have failing financial institutions and a flash point in Europe. Lets see what the dow has to say.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,763
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:34am Nov 1, 2011 5:34am
Im thinking its too easy and that a possible black swan event might hit us.

we might be becoming too rigid to shorts. yes it does look like a shorting fiesta, and bukkake gangbang of bulls, but there is always a chance of a black swan.

PT, what can possibly be the possible black swan? if the US QE's that would be one of them. how likely is that? ISM PMI, being lower than forecasted and lower than previous.

anything else?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,764
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:35am Nov 1, 2011 5:35am
This is a last line of support which is under pressure right now.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,765
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:43am Nov 1, 2011 5:43am
Anyone looking for a chart example heres my trades from this morning I dont know how to PM you these so here it is on the 5min! Sorry for somewhat spamming the thread but it is eur/usd I'm showing
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  • #6,766
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:44am Nov 1, 2011 5:44am
Quoting bumapatria
Im thinking its too easy and that a possible black swan event might hit us.

we might be becoming too rigid to shorts. yes it does look like a shorting fiesta, and bukkake gangbang of bulls, but there is always a chance of a black swan.

PT, what can possibly be the possible black swan? if the US QE's that would be one of them. how likely is that? ISM PMI, being lower than forecasted and lower than previous.

anything else?
1. QE3? Slim chance
2. Fantastic ADP/NFP numbers? Possible, but that is USD positive
3. ECB raising interest rates? Unlikely
4. Giant Panda coming to the Euro rescue? Unlikely (As with other BRIC nations)
5. Nuclear annihilation of the North American continent. Unlikely
6. Assassination of Obama? Again, Dollar positive

Can't think of any more. Therefore the only Black Swan risk I see is QE3
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,767
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:46am Nov 1, 2011 5:46am
E/U is on life support now. Let's see if 1.365 can be broken anytime soon.
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  • #6,768
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:46am Nov 1, 2011 5:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
1. QE3? Slim chance
2. Fantastic ADP/NFP numbers? Possible, but that is USD positive
3. ECB raising interest rates? Unlikely
4. Giant Panda coming to the Euro rescue? Unlikely (As with other BRIC nations)
5. Nuclear annihilation of the North American continent. Unlikely
6. Assassination of Obama? Again, Dollar positive

Can't think of any more. Therefore the only Black Swan risk I see is QE3
you think it could happen today? im going out so i am a little worried now.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,769
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:47am Nov 1, 2011 5:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
6. Assassination of Obama? Again, Dollar positive
Chachachaa.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,770
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:48am Nov 1, 2011 5:48am
Quoting AaronWard
Hope you are right. But I keep thinking about 1987 and about 9/11. Stock market crashes = CB intervention. Stabilizing markets is definitely part of the unofficial mandate of the Fed. We have failing financial institutions and a flash point in Europe. Lets see what the dow has to say.
The problem is a EZ crisis. The US econ data has not been terrible. Actually it suggests that there will not be a double dip recession. What we have is a Euro credit event. Yes, it will be bad for the EZ and therefore will impact the US/Global economy. However, printing more USD is not going to help Europe. If anything it will hurt it. Europe needs a lower valued Euro to mitigate the risk to the real economy. The only fix for the debt crisis is a Euro political solution, which is a monstrous undertaking and cannot be solved this week, month or year.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,771
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:49am Nov 1, 2011 5:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
1. QE3? Slim chance
2. Fantastic ADP/NFP numbers? Possible, but that is USD positive
3. ECB raising interest rates? Unlikely
4. Giant Panda coming to the Euro rescue? Unlikely (As with other BRIC nations)
5. Nuclear annihilation of the North American continent. Unlikely
6. Assassination of Obama? Again, Dollar positive

Can't think of any more. Therefore the only Black Swan risk I see is QE3
And when you look at the other side of the coin... lots of friendly black swans to assist us in our quest for parity.

1. ECB rate cut
2. No QE (likely)
3. Another financial institution down the tubes
4. An American politician doing something stupid
5. Trouble from any and all of the Piigs
6. Any bad news
7. Social unrest in Europe

But hey Buma, I thought you didn't believe in fundamentals
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,772
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:51am Nov 1, 2011 5:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
The problem is a EZ crisis. The US econ data has not been terrible. Actually it suggests that there will not be a double dip recession. What we have is a Euro credit event. Yes, it will be bad for the EZ and therefore will impact the US/Global economy. However, printing more USD is not going to help Europe. If anything it will hurt it. Europe needs a lower valued Euro to mitigate the risk to the real economy. The only fix for the debt crisis is a Euro political solution, which is a monstrous undertaking and cannot be solved this week, month or...
I agree with you... unless the dow tanks by 10%. Which, while unlikely, is more likely than it was 2 days ago.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,773
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:51am Nov 1, 2011 5:51am
Quoting bumapatria
you think it could happen today? im going out so i am a little worried now.
close your positions or hedge them.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,774
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:52am Nov 1, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Chachachaa.
guys should be careful... we just made it into a homeland security database.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,775
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:54am Nov 1, 2011 5:54am
Quoting AaronWard
And when you look at the other side of the coin... lots of friendly black swans to assist us in our quest for parity.

1. ECB rate cut
2. No QE (likely)
3. Another financial institution down the tubes
4. An American politician doing something stupid
5. Trouble from any and all of the Piigs
6. Any bad news
7. Social unrest in Europe

But hey Buma, I thought you didn't believe in fundamentals
thatll be a wtf aaron. lol. i care fundies first i mention it before about everything else second. Fundamentals: basis for an action. Fundamental is like foundation. its like where it all starts. if u know what im saying.

yes i do analyze fundies but not as good as u guys or pedro. i just look at headlines, and read for keywords where sentiment can change or cause a reaction.

im only halfway on my microeconomics handbook come on man!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,776
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:55am Nov 1, 2011 5:55am
Quoting AaronWard
guys should be careful... we just made it into a homeland security database.
I guess my 20 year US visa is now officially cancelled.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,777
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:56am Nov 1, 2011 5:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
close your positions or hedge them.
if such news was released,
woudl a stop loss be insufficient and create slippage?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,778
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:59am Nov 1, 2011 5:59am
Nobody will assasinate Obummer....... If they did we end up with Biden who's an even bigger idiot.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,779
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:00am Nov 1, 2011 6:00am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Once vote is over and Papandreou realizes that it was a bad move, he takes a call with his Red Phone to Merkel's Red Phone.
Merkel: "Hallo, Angela."
Papandreou "Hi Angela, this George."
Merkel: "You can keep you own problems - don't come bugging EU anymore." Click!
  • #6,780
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:00am Nov 1, 2011 6:00am
Quoting bumapatria
if such news was released,
woudl a stop loss be insufficient and create slippage?
You will always have slippage on a spike.
Also consider that just because the candle is all colored in does not mean the tick data stepped through every price on the way.
During spikes, 30 to 50 pip jumps between 2 consecutive ticks are not unheard of.

However, I do not see a huge danger for today.
I was just saying that leaving positions open and unattended when you don't feel confident is not a good idea.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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