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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,741
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:29am Nov 1, 2011 4:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader

Next stop 3689, but 3666 much more likely.
Zone perfectly hit. Damn I love that! Maybe one more retest and then pls that correction.

Going to count how high will it go.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,742
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:29am Nov 1, 2011 4:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw I have heard some rumours, that there is an offer of 250 000 Pounds to economist who thinks of the plan how to leave Eurozone.
Very simple...move to Canada. We have enough room for 500,000,000 people... and we have oil to sell them to heat their houses during winter too.

Where do I collect my money?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,743
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:34am Nov 1, 2011 4:34am
I wonder how Ben feels waking up in the morning to discover that despite all his hard work, his country is now worth 1% more than it was when he went to bed. Poor guy, he must be xxxx bricks.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,744
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:37am Nov 1, 2011 4:37am
Investors in the U.S. fixed income - now it is clear that the European plan is not worth any real money. Meet Big Twenty, a new statement of the ECB - all this is, frankly, does not accelerate the solution of European problems. We now prefer to follow the internal news namely for the fact that the Fed says. The last time Bernanke issued a guarded places, and occasionally pessimistic. If the following statement the regulator will be colored as gray tones, the fall in U.S. stock markets will continue.
  • #6,745
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:40am Nov 1, 2011 4:40am
Quoting AaronWard
Very simple...move to Canada.
We aint in the Eurozone . We are kinda eurosceptical nation. We support a free trade a lot, but EU is just too socialistic for us. And our economists predicted fall ou eurozone long ago, thats why we didnt enter. We had our experience with socialism already and it was baaaad.

Czech rules, we dont suffer any crisis here, we already had one for 50 years. Muachachachachaaa.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,746
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:45am Nov 1, 2011 4:45am
Quoting AaronWard
I wonder how Ben feels waking up in the morning to discover that despite all his hard work, his country is now worth 1% more than it was when he went to bed. Poor guy, he must be xxxx bricks.
Ben's surname is misspelled

It should be Bearnake not Bernanke

Let's analyse that. First we split it into two parts "Bear" and "Nake"

Bear - noun - investor who anticipates falling prices (I'm a bear in this market)
Nake - verb - Come, be ready, (Nake your swords)

So he is Ben the bear who nakes
or
The Bear is coming

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,747
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:48am Nov 1, 2011 4:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ben's surname is misspelled

It should be Bearnake not Bernanke

Let's analyse that. First we split it into two parts "Bear" and "Nake"

Bear - noun - investor who anticipates falling prices (I'm a bear in this market)
Nake - verb - Come, be ready, (Nake your swords)

So he is Ben the bear who nakes
or
The Bear is coming



your exuberant spirits must be driving your wife nuts....

But perhaps you misspelled his name yet once again. I think it should be Bear-nuke.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,748
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:49am Nov 1, 2011 4:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ben's surname is misspelled

It should be Bearnake not Bernanke

Let's analyse that. First we split it into two parts "Bear" and "Nake"

Bear - noun - investor who anticipates falling prices (I'm a bear in this market)
Nake - verb - Come, be ready, (Nake your swords)

So he is Ben the bear who nakes
or
The Bear is coming

Good one
By our actions we are known
  • #6,749
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:53am Nov 1, 2011 4:53am
Rofl guys stop that. Colleagues at work are starting to be suspicious I aint working.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,750
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:58am Nov 1, 2011 4:58am
Hi everyone!

Been away for a couple of days buy added to my short during that time .
Looking for 1.35 at first think we will reach there and get a bounce but who knows. Haven't followed the Greek tragedy and are not fully up to date. Can anyone give me the short story?
  • #6,751
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:58am Nov 1, 2011 4:58am
These are historic events. Since things happen so fast and sentiment changes so quickly I am trading by playing position.

We still have the upcoming CB decisions this week. They will do whatever they can to maintain a risk on future.

But the underlying economic forces are now beyond CB ability to control them. MF Global is not the only one busted. There had to be many bets that there was going to be another government bailout of the sovereign debt. That this thing was containable. Corzine put on the play because of his views of Politics.

But citizenry has to be willing to pay the tab, whether directly via taxes and austerity, or accepting default by inflation, or default by default.

This is at the meltdown stage for some other financial institution.

Consider the scale required of intervention to move the markets a couple of hundred points in the BOJ action. Even with all the stops that got run which added to the buying. BOJ was estimated to have spent 50 billion US to get the pop.

Breaking of support.
1.4137 ___________level taken out Sunday
1.3980 __157 pips__ to next support strong initial move
1.3900 ___80 pips__ still moving but some buying to cushion the fall
1.3829 ___71 pips __ditto
1.3700 __129 pips __current support with a test below, downtrend
__________________strength resumes

The 1.3829 level was significant support that gave way
will add to position on bounce to that level for a test of the downtrend.

Or if strong weakness show up will short below 1.3700
I would prefer the short below 1.3700 as that would say the Range bound macro is shifting into a solid trend. The move is accelerating.

(everyone reads S/R differently)
  • #6,752
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:02am Nov 1, 2011 5:02am
Quoting TheSwede
Hi everyone!

Been away for a couple of days buy added to my short during that time .
Looking for 1.35 at first think we will reach there and get a bounce but who knows. Haven't followed the Greek tragedy and are not fully up to date. Can anyone give me the short story?
Short story

1. The market figured out that the EFSF box is empty and nobody wants to fill it
2. Greece wants to put the haircut deal to a referendum in early 2012
3. There is fear Italy is screwed (10Y bonds at 6.21% so far and still climbing)
4. Econ data for Europe dismal

There is much more but even the above is enough.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,753
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:04am Nov 1, 2011 5:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Pt my friend. Stop posting these doomsday news please, or someone may read it and I will not get my retracement up.
i think its going way to straight, its gotta have a retracement if my prediction is correct. it should be vertical, base, retrace, and repeat in a trend. vertical down is made now. here looks like the base. where is the retrace?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,754
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:07am Nov 1, 2011 5:07am
Excellent post Poto. I have some futher thoughts

These are historic events. Since things happen so fast and sentiment changes so quickly I am trading by playing position.

Yeah, that right. History is being made.

We still have the upcoming CB decisions this week. They will do whatever they can to maintain a risk on future.

Yup. Watch out. Todays disaster has increased the likelihood of QE significantly.

Consider the scale required of intervention to move the markets a couple of hundred points in the BOJ action. Even with all the stops that got run which added to the buying. BOJ was estimated to have spent 50 billion US to get the pop.

Actually, they spent about 4 trillion Yen (which they created electronically) and now are the owners of an additional 50 Billion USD. So now at a minimum the world has an extra 4 trillion yen.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,755
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:07am Nov 1, 2011 5:07am
I was shorting around 1.7 and the retracement had me worried there.

I'm going to bail them out and wait for further testing of 1.7. If my equity is up to scratch I'll probably leave it running but for now let's not gamble.


Quoting foto
These are historic events. Since things happen so fast and sentiment changes so quickly I am trading by playing position.

We still have the upcoming CB decisions this week. They will do whatever they can to maintain a risk on future.

But the underlying economic forces are now beyond CB ability to control them. MF Global is not the only one busted. There had to be many bets that there was going to be another government bailout of the sovereign debt. That this thing was containable. Corzine put on the play because of his views of Politics.

But...
  • #6,756
  • Edited 5:19am Nov 1, 2011 5:08am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting bumapatria
i think its going way to straight, its gotta have a retracement if my prediction is correct. it should be vertical, base, retrace, and repeat in a trend. vertical down is made now. here looks like the base. where is the retrace?
We will only get a retrace on good news. Perhaps ISM this afternoon, or maybe ADP employment numbers tomorrow. All we need is a catalyst to send the Euro right up into another strong supply zone... say around 1.379???
Then down she comes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,757
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:10am Nov 1, 2011 5:10am
Quoting bumapatria
i think its going way to straight, its gotta have a retracement if my prediction is correct. it should be vertical, base, retrace, and repeat in a trend. vertical down is made now. here looks like the base. where is the retrace?
I am setting my retrace point when this h4 closes.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,758
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:11am Nov 1, 2011 5:11am
1. Not that surprising
2. Referendum in early 2012? We are not speaking of a referendum in the house here I guess but a referendum for the people. Guess they won't get any money in time for a full default then
3. Not that surprising
4. Not that surprising

Ok, so then 1.31 next and not 1.35. Maybe they don't dare to lower the rates on thursday or even hint about it.

I'm on holiday in Turkey and I guess they are laughing their pants of here.
Well maybe not because they want to get into the EU but EU is not so focused on that at the moment.

Quoting PipTrapper
Short story

1. The market figured out that the EFSF box is empty and nobody wants to fill it
2. Greece wants to put the haircut deal to a referendum in early 2012
3. There is fear Italy is screwed (10Y bonds at 6.21% so far and still climbing)
4. Econ data for Europe dismal

There is much more but even the above is enough.
  • #6,759
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:11am Nov 1, 2011 5:11am
3790 is what im thinking.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,760
  • Nov 1, 2011 5:13am Nov 1, 2011 5:13am
Quoting AaronWard

Yup. Watch out. Todays disaster has increased the likelihood of QE significantly.
Sorry I have to disagree with you on this.

The FOMC's mandate is not the confidence in the stock markets nor is it the value of the Euro or the USD.

Their mandate is Employment and inflation.

If the ADP and NFP employment numbers come out as expected or greater, then QE3 is definitely off the table for now, no matter how the markets react.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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