EurAnalysis | Page 337 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #6,721
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:26am Nov 1, 2011 3:26am
Kamakaziiii
.
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,722
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:31am Nov 1, 2011 3:31am
E/U is tanking hard right now, 1.368 low here. Any special reasons/news? I'd say it's gonna stabilize around 1.65 and then limp around a bit/retrace.
  • #6,723
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:35am Nov 1, 2011 3:35am
i got a nice point of interest spot sort of place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: point of interest.gif Size: 35 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,724
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:36am Nov 1, 2011 3:36am
Quoting jeff_b
E/U is tanking hard right now, 1.368 low here. Any special reasons/news? I'd say it's gonna stabilize around 1.65 and then limp around a bit/retrace.
Too many reasons to mention Jeff, but here are the main ones.

1. EFSF box is empty and nobody is filling it.
2. The Greeks want a referendum to decide whether or not to take the haircut deal.
3. High risk news coming out this week. (Fed rate, ECB Rate, NFP)
4. Poor econ data out of Europe

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,725
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:38am Nov 1, 2011 3:38am
Quoting bumapatria
i got a nice point of interest spot sort of place.
whats the price of your TP?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,726
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:41am Nov 1, 2011 3:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
1. EFSF box is empty and nobody is filling it.
Cheers
PT
You mean the borrowed empty box filled with promisses of borrowed money?

Btw I tried to explain it to my friends yesterday. Noone was laughing. Well, except for me.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,727
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:41am Nov 1, 2011 3:41am
I am glad that I killed my oil longs

Where do we anticipate next stop, so I could scale in to my running short ?
  • #6,728
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:42am Nov 1, 2011 3:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You mean the borrowed empty box filled with promisses of borrowed money?

Btw I tried to explain it to my friends yesterday. Noone was laughing. Well, except for me.

T.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,729
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:46am Nov 1, 2011 3:46am
Cool, thanks for the commentaries. So the Greeks now actually have the balls to say no to the haircut? Can they even do that, if they don't accept it then basically they'll have to go default on the debt right?

Quoting PipTrapper
Too many reasons to mention Jeff, but here are the main ones.

1. EFSF box is empty and nobody is filling it.
2. The Greeks want a referendum to decide whether or not to take the haircut deal.
3. High risk news coming out this week. (Fed rate, ECB Rate, NFP)
4. Poor econ data out of Europe

Cheers
PT
  • #6,730
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:52am Nov 1, 2011 3:52am
Quoting jeff_b
So the Greeks now actually have the balls to say no to the haircut?

Can they even do that, if they don't accept it then basically they'll have to go default on the debt right?
Greeks are totally facked up from the start. Even with 50 pct haircut, they still owe something like 120% of GDP and still have insane interest rates while trying to borrow.

Take a look at picture in the link below, I find it quite informative.

And if you want some ground, try to have a look at article attached, there are quite a few usefull informations there.


Quoting PipTrapper
From "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm" by Grant Williams
Please take the time to download and read the attached PDF document.
It is a "must read" and will answer all your questions.
.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,731
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:54am Nov 1, 2011 3:54am
Quoting jeff_b
Cool, thanks for the commentaries. So the Greeks now actually have the balls to say no to the haircut? Can they even do that, if they don't accept it then basically they'll have to go default on the debt right?
The hair cut is a default by anybody's books except for the people paying out the CDS. But a referendum makes a disorderly default much more likely.

Who knows what will happen. We need to see the wording of the question. It could well be... "Should Greece leave the Euro and return to the Drachma?"
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,732
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:56am Nov 1, 2011 3:56am
Quoting AaronWard
The hair cut is a default by anybody's books except for the people paying out the CDS. But a referendum makes a disorderly default much more likely.

Who knows what will happen. We need to see the wording of the question. It could well be... "Should Greece leave the Euro and return to the Drachma?"
You are right. And it is part of that pdf Jeff, really usefull stuff.

And I know what will happen. We will short Euro .

Btw I have heard some rumours, that there is an offer of 250 000 Pounds to economist who thinks of the plan how to leave Eurozone.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,733
  • Nov 1, 2011 3:57am Nov 1, 2011 3:57am
my short and points of interest.

Mercury planet of commerce and trade is going to move at december 10 to the next sign. so pfft... wait till then for any trend change. and mars till 30th.

so eyes up there. for now i am short up 30+.

any predictions for the ISM release?
fundy freaks we need ur awesome speculative midns !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: point of interest.gif Size: 35 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,734
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:08am Nov 1, 2011 4:08am
Quoting bumapatria
any predictions for the ISM release?
fundy freaks we need ur awesome speculative midns !
Little to no change. Probably come in close to expected.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ISMgraph.jpg Size: 50 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,735
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:18am Nov 1, 2011 4:18am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
BIS analytics seem to think that this trend is over...
BIS seen buying EUR/USD
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...ing-eurusd-14/

Bank of international settlements:
http://www.bis.org/about/index.htm?l=2
  • #6,736
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:18am Nov 1, 2011 4:18am
Quoting AaronWard
No QE on Wednesday will probably knock us back down by 300-400 pips.
This is the same I am thinking. But I keep repeating myself: "Don't count on it too much. Don't count on it too much".

The drop will be stronger, if before statement we get a QE-hope rally. Then if there is strong 'NO' for QE - we will be going down like a stone.

I have a free day today, and should be able to toy with trades whole day... But of course, my family found me some "much more important things to do" . So I am leaving my 1.3986 short and hoping the downtrend will last. (and that is the 3rd wave). And If we get a retrace so I could scale in when I am back ...
  • #6,737
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:20am Nov 1, 2011 4:20am
Shame on you Papandreo, but I thank you very much
European, U.S. Stock Futures Decline as Greece Calls Referendum

European stock futures fell, indicating the Stoxx Europe 600 Index will extend its biggest drop in four weeks, after Greece pledged a referendum on the euro area’s new financial package for the nation. U.S. futures and Asian shares also retreated.

How much longer before France loses its AAA credit rating now?
European Banks Sink on Greek Vote Bombshell

French banks and other lenders exposed to Greece and other weak euro zone countries slumped on Tuesday after Greece's leader said he would put a bailout plan to a referendum, raising the risk of a disorderly default.

Italian 10Y Bonds @ 6.21%... Ouch!!!
Italian/German 10-yr yield spread hits euro lifetime high

Yield spreads of Italian and Belgian 10-year bonds over benchmark German counterparts widened to euro lifetime highs on Tuesday after Greece surprised markets with a call for a referendum on its latest bailout deal.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,738
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:20am Nov 1, 2011 4:20am
Quoting Blobik
I have a free day today, and should be able to toy with trades whole day... But of course, my family found me some "much more important things to do" . So I am leaving my 1.3986 short and hoping the downtrend will last.
Just put em bag full of money from your short on the dinner table and they will stop bugging
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,739
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:22am Nov 1, 2011 4:22am
Pt my friend. Stop posting these doomsday news please, or someone may read it and I will not get my retracement up.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,740
  • Nov 1, 2011 4:24am Nov 1, 2011 4:24am
Good afternoon, during the recent events, radically changed the plan of action, my predictions for the sale of this Insturment turned out.
Now I advise everyone to sell at good correction. The nearest low-cost space for this - 1,391 to 1.4015.
I think there will be actively selling.

The guys wanted to know how to create your own theme with their forecasts and recommendations?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 62 KB
10 traders viewing now