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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,961
  • Oct 31, 2011 8:40pm Oct 31, 2011 8:40pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...nt-to-act.html
  • #28,962
  • Oct 31, 2011 9:07pm Oct 31, 2011 9:07pm
Base on the UJ history it always heading to south for past few years therefore base on my preliminary analysis I feel to sell the UJ pair from 78.75. And I did so. Because the UJ has not broke the Fib 61.8 mark in daily chart. And also I have noticed that the UJ pair is ranging between 19 to 52 pips for few weeks. The Year end festive seasons is also approaching. So there will be more exports from JP expected. Most of the time it wont move much during the last quarter of the year. Therefore I request some of our pros comments on this. So we can take a wise decision.
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  • #28,963
  • Oct 31, 2011 9:22pm Oct 31, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting morewins
Base on the UJ history it always heading to south for past few years therefore base on my preliminary analysis I feel to sell the UJ pair from 78.75. And I did so. Because the UJ has not broke the Fib 61.8 mark in daily chart. And also I have noticed that the UJ pair is ranging between 19 to 52 pips for few weeks. The Year end festive seasons is also approaching. So there will be more exports from JP expected. Most of the time it wont move much during the last quarter of the year. Therefore I request some of our pros comments on this. So we can...
You are forgetting the major fundermental here - the BOJ, they have reported that they need the rate at 85 to 90 and will undertake more action to be so, as all national companies are losing money due to high worth of currency on export business - has bugger all to do with FIB levels
  • #28,964
  • Oct 31, 2011 9:43pm Oct 31, 2011 9:43pm
I agreed but since 1998, 2002 and 2007 we can see a sharp downside and it never hit the previous high again. You can see the clear picture in Monthly Chart. All the time it shows the strong downtrend only. But in between there were some hiccups like what we have seen yesterday with few hundred pips movements upside. But It doesn't mean that UJ is going to head North. Therefore I strongly believe that UJ is going towards the South but for a short period of time we can take some long positions whenever it shows some hiccups with max 200 pips during the major news announcements. Nowadays JP is loosing its exports business to his neighbors. We can see there are many cars, electrical items from China and Korea than before and their quality is also improving in recent years as well. I'm not sure whether it's valid to say due to lack exports from JP for the Yen strengthening but there are many other factors involve in this as well. (Like Political, Nature and Global Econ)
  • #28,965
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:01pm Oct 31, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting morewins
I agreed but since 1998, 2002 and 2007 we can see a sharp downside and it never hit the previous high again. You can see the clear picture in Monthly Chart. All the time it shows the strong downtrend only. But in between there were some hiccups like what we have seen yesterday with few hundred pips movements upside. But It doesn't mean that UJ is going to head North. Therefore I strongly believe that UJ is going towards the South but for a short period of time we can take some long positions whenever it shows some hiccups with max 200 pips during...
I agree too with everything you say... but not possible to place a short on this at this time as no way am I having a 300 pip stop loss in order to protect the short. We need to wait to see what BOJ is going to do. Bloomberg is all over BOJ doing more crazy stuff... patience is so boring, but it saves money!!
  • #28,966
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:11pm Oct 31, 2011 10:11pm
I think they will make usd/jpy move > 84 , then they close their postions in usd/jpy . After that they intervene again when the pair fell to 80s .
  • #28,967
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:21pm Oct 31, 2011 10:21pm
Yes True we will wait!!!
  • #28,968
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:25pm Oct 31, 2011 10:25pm
Fatpanda said BOJ would intervent in 5 mins.
  • #28,969
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:55pm Oct 31, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting Yuchen
Fatpanda said BOJ would intervent in 5 mins.
who is fatpanda?
  • #28,970
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:04pm Oct 31, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting matt9824
who is fatpanda?
I don't know either, maybe Poo as dragon warrior in "Kungfu Panda"
Just ignore my post here
  • #28,971
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:07pm Oct 31, 2011 11:07pm
I believe the big gun speculators bluff has been called. I believe that the price needs to be at least pre US downgrade price. Range 80 - 82 before the BOJ stops the intervention or defends levels

The country exports millions of items if just one dollar down against the yen cost these companies millions if not hundreds of millions.

I will stay long until 80 at least.

Holding two Longs 76.66 SL 77.50 - 78.03 SL 77.50

I don't mind putting a few pips on the line.
  • #28,972
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:08pm Oct 31, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting bangcool
I don't know either, maybe Poo as dragon warrior in "Kungfu Panda"
Just ignore my post here
More to the point why does H2O (water) kill panda? errr??!!
Anyway the panda (aka BOJ) is bloody late!!
  • #28,973
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:10pm Oct 31, 2011 11:10pm
Quoting specul8
I believe the big gun speculators bluff has been called. I believe that the price needs to be at least pre US downgrade price. Range 80 - 82 before the BOJ stops the intervention or defends levels

The country exports millions of items if just one dollar down against the yen cost these companies millions if not hundreds of millions.

I will stay long until 80 at least.

Holding two Longs 76.66 SL 77.50 - 78.03 SL 77.50

I don't mind putting a few pips on the line.
I have long at 78, and new orders at 79, 80, 81 & 82 - hope they get filled on a slower up.

The car figures coming out shortly will aid bank intervention as they will be rubbish - 5am GMT i think

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...43db779b6#flag
  • #28,974
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:13pm Oct 31, 2011 11:13pm
Going Up?
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  • #28,975
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:17pm Oct 31, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting matt9824
who is fatpanda?
Fatpanda is a trader always randomly open a trade, and then add more and more lots if he is losing money, but fortunately, his average trading got out of positive before got marginal closed all his orders..
for example, last week, he randomly long 5 lots UJ at 76.38 on monday and then he add another 3 lots at 75.80 on tuesday and fortunately, he made a big kill yesterday..
for another example, between Aug 22nd to Aug 29th, he randomly shorted 5 lots EU around 1.4400 said he believed EU will drop to 1.4150 and then add another 5 lots for every 50 pips up, ect...

about why fatpanda died, that's about a chemistry joke..
because he said, i want to have H2O, too, it sounds like (H2O2, which will kill you if you drink H2O2)..

and by the way, fatpanada has a master of chemistry degree from Harvard University.
  • #28,976
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:20pm Oct 31, 2011 11:20pm
This slow movement make me crazy...
Have a long at 78 with target 150 pips and still here.... this position I open it yesterday
Hope soon we got clear market movement.
SL 50 point.
  • #28,977
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:22pm Oct 31, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting Yuchen
Fatpanda is a trader always randomly open a trade, and then add more and more lots if he is losing money, but fortunately, his average trading got out of positive before got marginal closed all his orders..
for example, last week, he randomly long 5 lots UJ at 76.38 on monday and then he add another 3 lots at 75.80 on tuesday and fortunately, he made a big kill yesterday..
for another example, between Aug 22nd to Aug 29th, he randomly shorted 5 lots EU around 1.4400 said he believed EU will drop to 1.4150 and then add another 5 lots for every...
WOW very informative.
I have a computer sicence degree from some unknown school in england!
And I too had my longs on the U/J
  • #28,978
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:24pm Oct 31, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting bangcool
This slow movement make me crazy...
Have a long at 78 with target 150 pips and still here.... this position I open it yesterday
Hope soon we got clear market movement.
SL 50 point.
wonder what BoJ is waiting for..im in suspense almost expecting to flick to my trading platform and see the pair at 82.50 eventually
  • #28,979
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:26pm Oct 31, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting matt9824
I have long at 78, and new orders at 79, 80, 81 & 82 - hope they get filled on a slower up.

The car figures coming out shortly will aid bank intervention as they will be rubbish - 5am GMT i think

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...43db779b6#flag
US and London sessions usually have a sell off. Lets see if my stops can hold and BOJ defends the levels like yesterday. Some speculators do not want the UJ to raise and some big guns are still defending imo. All we can do is wait and see.

Still scalping both ways ;-)
  • #28,980
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:27pm Oct 31, 2011 11:27pm
Quoting taxe91
wonder what BoJ is waiting for..im in suspense almost expecting to flick to my trading platform and see the pair at 82.50 eventually
She about to blow - creeping up slowly
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