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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,941
  • Oct 31, 2011 7:37am Oct 31, 2011 7:37am
Quoting jeff_b
@Freemen: are you sure it's your broker, not BOJ?
BOJ sleep. This is broker or speculants. Because I will short JPY only why BOJ sleep. Remmeber how long time take to be back price before intervation???
Once scalper always scalper
  • #28,942
  • Oct 31, 2011 7:37am Oct 31, 2011 7:37am
Quoting freemen
I put SL ( stop loss) 78.50 Broker try catch my stop with spike. Go to chart and you will see BIG SPIKE 78.36
Still lucky and in position
Thanks for that, I am glad you have done well!

cheers Cath
  • #28,943
  • Oct 31, 2011 7:45am Oct 31, 2011 7:45am
After intervation the price is so attractive for shorting. This is money for free
Not long ago was similar situation in history. CASH IN!!!
Good luck all mates
Once scalper always scalper
  • #28,944
  • Oct 31, 2011 7:52am Oct 31, 2011 7:52am
Quoting freemen
After intervation the price is so attractive for shorting. This is money for free
Not long ago was similar situation in history. CASH IN!!!
Good luck all mates
no such thing as free money. beware of a potential intervention round 2 tomorrow
  • #28,945
  • Oct 31, 2011 7:54am Oct 31, 2011 7:54am
Man fading the U/J takes quite some hard work. I'm back to my fav E/U. See you guys @ next intervention (if it happens).
  • #28,946
  • Oct 31, 2011 8:00am Oct 31, 2011 8:00am
Quoting taxe91
no such thing as free money. beware of a potential intervention round 2 tomorrow
Dream on. No one wants to throw money tolete. So at first is scared if not help then will act
Once scalper always scalper
  • #28,947
  • Oct 31, 2011 8:20am Oct 31, 2011 8:20am
I see this failing more when usa opens - what your thoughts peeps?
  • #28,948
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:00am Oct 31, 2011 10:00am
Up-move 1 => intervention until 77.90
Following up-moves => retailers awakening
79.20 => BoJ defending level a few hours
Following down-moves => commercial traders unloading
77.90 => somebody defending level again

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,949
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:02am Oct 31, 2011 10:02am
In the past when there has been intervention and rumored speculation price has shot up at the end of US and prior to Tokyo session. Traders don't want to be stuck long so they will pull their orders and this should lead to a spike up on the UJ.
There has been chatter that the BOJ has been intervening all through London, if this is the case it should be a cause for concern. If they are printing money for this rally then how on earth can anybody hold it down? Something doesn't make sense to me.
  • #28,950
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:07am Oct 31, 2011 10:07am
Quoting Sonofsin5
In the past when there has been intervention and rumored speculation price has shot up at the end of US and prior to Tokyo session. Traders don't want to be stuck long so they will pull their orders and this should lead to a spike up on the UJ.
There has been chatter that the BOJ has been intervening all through London, if this is the case it should be a cause for concern. If they are printing money for this rally then how on earth can anybody hold it down? Something doesn't make sense to me.
prob BoJ psychology not doing what market expects or organizing HH's and HL's to get a trend change
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,951
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:22am Oct 31, 2011 10:22am
UJ is defended v well, EJ left out...
  • #28,952
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:25am Oct 31, 2011 10:25am
Quoting Sonofsin5
In the past when there has been intervention and rumored speculation price has shot up at the end of US and prior to Tokyo session. Traders don't want to be stuck long so they will pull their orders and this should lead to a spike up on the UJ.
There has been chatter that the BOJ has been intervening all through London, if this is the case it should be a cause for concern. If they are printing money for this rally then how on earth can anybody hold it down? Something doesn't make sense to me.
Very valid concerns and I am with you on all points. What I do think we need to bear in mind is the actual and relative value of 1) the USD at this point in time compared to previous interventions - from the 50,000 foot level, we all know the USD has slid into the crapper, and that represents significance in terms of expressing everything in US dollars (commodities, equities, gold, etc.) and 2) short pressure built up in all the yens has been huge, hence all this requires much more currency firepower. (ie., I remember the Sept/2010 they spent $20B and got 300+ pips over 18hours, and it held relatively well and long. Last night, they spent double to get those same 300 pips rather quickly (2hrs?), but the short pressure - built up and real-time - has been huge.

As testament that the players and forces are massive, assuming forexlive's statement that EBS was on the bid with $1B+ at 78.9 is interesting, given that it dropped 100 pips in quick time after that (I would love to know what EBS did. ) And, bear in mind that dealers can see where the big player asks and sells are, on the bank's systems - this could well be a huge game of smart money chicken, and the profits must be mind boggling IMO.

BoJ does have a history of intervening frequently: back in 2003 they did so almost daily, or, came in to defend certain levels when they felt it necessary; with $450B in the official intervention chest, (or unlimited funds) hopefully they come in often - whether or not it is 1) successful or 2) makes economic sense is beyond me; I'm just a lowly retailer who wants to ride the waves.
  • #28,953
  • Oct 31, 2011 10:40am Oct 31, 2011 10:40am
Does any one think it's gonna hold support level?

I think it's gonna break down what you think?
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  • #28,954
  • Oct 31, 2011 11:33am Oct 31, 2011 11:33am
Quoting Wolfin2010
Does any one think it's gonna hold support level?

I think it's gonna break down what you think?
difficult question, if it wasn't UJ I would say well:

-it's above DPP, WPP and MPP
-monthly R1 gives support
-we are at the top of the first intervention move

So yes I think it's likely to hold, but then with UJ you never know so I'm staying out for the moment

UJ M15:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,955
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:26pm Oct 31, 2011 2:26pm
are u staying out because u got some nice pips , u shuldnt do so brother.


Quoting USD-Bear
difficult question, if it wasn't UJ I would say well:

-it's above DPP, WPP and MPP
-monthly R1 gives support
-we are at the top of the first intervention move

So yes I think it's likely to hold, but then with UJ you never know so I'm staying out for the moment

UJ M15:
Attachment
  • #28,956
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:35pm Oct 31, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting tankokjian
are u staying out because u got some nice pips , u shuldnt do so brother.
maybe, maybe not, just have near 100% accuracy on previous trades of getting a loser after such a killer so rather wait for a setup with more confidence.
UJ still is not out of the wood and demand for risk aversion is still high without many alternatives
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,957
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:50pm Oct 31, 2011 2:50pm
New Monthly Trade

Buy Stop @ 79.90 SL @ 79.60 - Risk 2%
Buy Limit @ 73.60 SL 73.30 - Risk 2%

EU Profits over 300 pips now
In Meanwhile USDX Daily Complete the 12345-ABC and Breaking the descending Channel now - Bottomline - New Long Trend Has Starting


Good Luck All
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,958
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:45pm Oct 31, 2011 5:45pm
Quoting FXMindset
New Monthly Trade

Buy Stop @ 79.90 SL @ 79.60 - Risk 2%
Buy Limit @ 73.60 SL 73.30 - Risk 2%

EU Profits over 300 pips now
In Meanwhile USDX Daily Complete the 12345-ABC and Breaking the descending Channel now - Bottomline - New Long Trend Has Starting


Good Luck All
I have similar trades on the way up (3 in total all for 150pips at 79 / 79.5 / 80) with a 10pips loss at £5 per pip... can but only hope!!!
  • #28,959
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:56pm Oct 31, 2011 5:56pm
Japanese authorities bought between $100/$125 billion USD against the JPY during yesterday’s intervention and only stopped because they ran out of credit lines with the major banks.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...ntion-amounts/
  • #28,960
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:49pm Oct 31, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting cher
Japanese authorities bought between $100/$125 billion USD against the JPY during yesterday’s intervention and only stopped because they ran out of credit lines with the major banks.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...ntion-amounts/
Lets hope they have some more credit in place to today for my Long here and short on the EURO
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