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  • #6,461
  • Edited 6:37am Oct 31, 2011 6:23am | Edited 6:37am
I can guess. Market returns back to its tracks, so it is time to short USD/JPY or EUR/JPY? The very same what happened at 3.8.2011 intervention.

What do I win?

DIET: This flat line maybe means your broker stopped trading after spike? Or do you think that was force against BOJ intervention and they were competing for about half an hour to create bunch of dojis?

DIET No2.: Ah I get it. Multibillion Buy limit. Interesting point. But I still se OTC market temporary close as much more likely.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,462
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:23am Oct 31, 2011 6:23am
Quoting AaronWard
I know this is the place for Euro hating, but since the Japanese have delivered the biggest blow to the Euro in awhile, I find this relevant.

Anybody want to guess what happens next ?

BTW that big flat line was a multibillion dollar buy limit for Yen.
As you mentioned Japanese style is Big Mouth + Ninja, or "hit, run and threat to do it again".

So it seems right now we are in a run phase.

Buuut, in EUR context, the falling USDJPY does not mean, higher EURUSD. EUR stalled when USDJPY was decreasing - people move their assets to JPY as they still fear QE horn. If QE won't strike the dollar, it should gain a bit again.

After all, US QE would mean that the last safe haven available is JPY, and probably gold would gain. But people who dislike commodities and are not interested in gold will see JPY as only alternative.

To sum up, I expect it may keep falling slowly today & tomorrow. And Japan does not seem to be willing to use the "floor method" like SNB. If they would, I'd long USDJPY just as you longed EURCHF. But right now it seems to be yet another "spike intervening", so price may tend to retrace quite far. But it will not cause additional USD weakness.
  • #6,463
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:26am Oct 31, 2011 6:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
Let's suppose that Japan plans on helping the EZ with their SPIV.
I think throwing money out to make an intervention is more effective than throwing money to this SPIV . In fact, making confetti out of money is a better idea... at least you gain some fancy looking confetti.
  • #6,464
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:27am Oct 31, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Blobik
As you mentioned Japanese style is Big Mouth + Ninja, or "hit, run and threat to do it again".

So it seems right now we are in a run phase.

Buuut, in EUR context, the falling USDJPY does not mean, higher EURUSD. EUR stalled when USDJPY was decreasing - people move their assets to JPY as they still fear QE horn. If QE won't strike the dollar, it should gain a bit again.

After all, US QE would mean that the last safe haven available is JPY, and probably gold would gain. But people who dislike commodities and are not interested in gold...
Nice
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #6,465
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:32am Oct 31, 2011 6:32am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I can guess. Market returns back to its tracks, so it is time to short USD/JPY or EUR/JPY? The very same what happened at 3.8.2011 intervention.

What do I win?

DIET: Btw, what do you meant by multibillion Buy of yen? For the first, they sold Yens. For the second, this flat line maybe means your broker stopped trading after spike? Or do you think that was force against BOJ intervention and they were competing for about half an hour to create bunch of dojis?

T.
my news feed said that there was one single order which was buying all the Yen the Japanese tossed out.

Place an order and you will win (or lose) whatever you wager.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,466
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:33am Oct 31, 2011 6:33am
Quoting Blobik
I think throwing money out to make an intervention is more effective than throwing money to this SPIV . In fact, making confetti out of money is a better idea... at least you gain some fancy looking confetti.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,467
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:33am Oct 31, 2011 6:33am
Quoting FXMindset
Nice
I hope, that it is correct, too - as I am going to trade these ideas soon But it matches with your excellent trendline analysis, and bunch of other factors, so the probability is sufficient
  • #6,468
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:37am Oct 31, 2011 6:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I can guess. Market returns back to its tracks, so it is time to short USD/JPY or EUR/JPY? The very same what happened at 3.8.2011 intervention.

What do I win?

DIET: Btw, what do you meant by multibillion Buy of yen? For the first, they sold Yens. For the second, this flat line maybe means your broker stopped trading after spike? Or do you think that was force against BOJ intervention and they were competing for about half an hour to create bunch of dojis?

T.
His broker didn't stop trading. I watched it on an STP ECN broker too.

What I was seeing was that was BOJ camped out on 79.20 for a couple hours scooping up yard after yard of offers. Either way it didn't look good.

I killed a short trade for a small loss figuring they were trying to put in a floor like the Swiss when price parked there for too long. I wasn't going to chance it.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,469
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:39am Oct 31, 2011 6:39am
Quoting Blobik
, I'd long USDJPY just as you longed EURCHF.
Lol. You need to look for very special language from the BOJ. Very specifically they need to say they are willing to print unlimited amounts of Yen to defend their ceiling. Japanese are not going to promise anything like this. I think the real reason lies in the fact that they are scared of the US. They lost this battle back in the 80's.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,470
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:40am Oct 31, 2011 6:40am
Quoting AaronWard
my news feed said that there was one single order which was buying all the Yen the Japanese tossed out.
Hmmm! Second Soross...?
  • #6,471
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:43am Oct 31, 2011 6:43am
Those are very interesting thoughts guys.

While PK pointed out he saw the same thing at ECN broker it could be that one whole OTC market had a gigantic buy limit order, or he simply shut down so it wont crash.

If it is the case of whole OTC market, may I know who is your provider guys?

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,472
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:44am Oct 31, 2011 6:44am
Quoting AaronWard
Lol. You need to look for very special language from the BOJ. Very specifically they need to say they are willing to print unlimited amounts of Yen to defend their ceiling. Japanese are not going to promise anything like this. I think the real reason lies in the fact that they are scared of the US. They lost this battle back in the 80's.
Of course they won't. That why I wrote "I would" not "I will" I think returning back to the intervention point is probable, but the move will be loosing steam the closer it gets. And may take more than a week, or may happen in an instant (QE?) The fact, that someone made a powerfull order to fight the BOJ freaks me out a bit Gosh, what did I get myself into? Looks like a regular war!

But, seriously, USDJPY becomes more interesting each day If someone was shorting USDs so badly.... does that mean some insider knows sth about Fed QE what we don't?
  • #6,473
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:45am Oct 31, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Blobik
Hmmm! Second Soross...?
Maybe the first one. It was a pretty clever move... base on two facts 1. The Japanese were going to aim for 80 and they had a limited budget to do this on. Lets see what happens. But for now they are up by over 100 pips. Bet the Japanese are pissed.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,474
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:47am Oct 31, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Blobik
Hmmm! Second Soross...?
No... The EFSF converted all the non-existent Euros they don't have into Japanese Yen for safe keeping.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,475
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:47am Oct 31, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Those are very interesting thoughts guys.

While PK pointed out he saw the same thing at ECN broker it could be that one whole OTC market had a gigantic buy limit order, or he simply shut down so it wont crash.

If it is the case of whole OTC market, may I know who is your provider guys?

T.
FF charts show the same flatness As they compare different brokers prices... It suggests that the price really stalled all this time at one level. Freaky.
  • #6,476
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:50am Oct 31, 2011 6:50am
Quoting AaronWard
Bet the Japanese are pissed.
I guess one should use stronger word "Sorry guys, almost half of your effort got doomed in less than 4hrs".

But, if it was someone posessing "insider knowledge"... Then I start thinking about reexamination of my views about US QE.
  • #6,477
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:51am Oct 31, 2011 6:51am
Quoting Blobik
FF charts show the same flatness As they compare different brokers prices... It suggests that the price really stalled all this time at one level. Freaky.
Yes, that is very freaky. Thats why I would like to get to bottom of this and know if it happened at all OTC markets. That would be regular war, as you mentioned above.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,478
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:54am Oct 31, 2011 6:54am
Quoting Blobik
FF charts show the same flatness As they compare different brokers prices... It suggests that the price really stalled all this time at one level. Freaky.
I have the same thing on 4 different brokers.
I suspect it was the BOJ defending the line but finally ran out of money.
That is why I closed my U/J longs. I was actually aiming for 81

As for future BOJ moves, they are probably more likely to offer assistance to local exporters than do another intervention any time soon.

As for who was buying YENs, since the BOJ acted alone, I would not be surprised if it was the FED taking advantage of an opportunity to conduct more stealth QE.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,479
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:54am Oct 31, 2011 6:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Those are very interesting thoughts guys.

While PK pointed out he saw the same thing at ECN broker it could be that one whole OTC market had a gigantic buy limit order, or he simply shut down so it wont crash.

If it is the case of whole OTC market, may I know who is your provider guys?

T.
FXDD,

But check out this site: http://www.forexlive.com/page/2/

I have lost the reference to 79.2 Several hours of news disappeared from my MT4 when my computer crashed..
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,480
  • Edited 7:15am Oct 31, 2011 6:58am | Edited 7:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes, that is very freaky. Thats why I would like to get to bottom of this and know if it happened at all OTC markets. That would be regular war, as you mentioned above.

T.
This was one massive order. Price wasn't stalled... somebody had very deep pockets and absorbed everything BOJ had to throw at it.

Perhaps PT is right that it was the Fed. Seems to me that the US have the most to lose if the Japanese succeeded in doing what the Swiss did. If this is the case... thats it for the Japanese economy. Yen is going down to 60!

Edit: It is really important to think about what a successful peg of the Yen would mean to the US. It would mean that the USD could only go up and not down, because if the Japanese could do it, so could everybody else. And suddenly the Chinese would not be alone against the world in their currency war... the US would.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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