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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #6,441
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:02am Oct 31, 2011 4:02am
Quoting The Fool
this thing is a freakin meatgrinder
Meaning? A high volume battle zone?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,442
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:11am Oct 31, 2011 4:11am
Noticing that we stay above 1.40 longer, than we are below it, I think it will hold (barely, but will) unless some news don't break it into pieces. Like second round of BOJ intervening .

Nah, I am mad that I was sleeping then . But on Wednesday we will get bulk of high impact news, meaning, that there will be chance for making nice profit, and I am already awaiting so I won't miss it.

Yet another beating for EUR

Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate

 8.3%
expected 7.9% previous 8.0%http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
  • #6,443
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:12am Oct 31, 2011 4:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
The EFSF is basically an empty box filled with promises of money - many of them from the very
people who are most likely to need to borrow that same money. Should they need to borrow
the money, they won’t be able to make good on their promises so there will be less money for them
to borrow." ~Grant Williams~

.
Rofl, this guy is great. You should have added longer part of the text PT.

"Now the brain trust running Europe have decided, in their collective wisdom, to apply leverage to the
non-existent money in the empty box that they have yet to actually borrow,..."~Grant Williams~
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,444
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:19am Oct 31, 2011 4:19am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Rofl, this guy is great. You should have added longer part of the text PT.

"Now the brain trust running Europe have decided, in their collective wisdom, to apply leverage to the
non-existent money in the empty box that they have yet to actually borrow,..."~Grant Williams~
I didn't want to give it all away
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,445
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:21am Oct 31, 2011 4:21am
European stocks down this morning, Futures showing risk off so far this morning.

Booked +110 EurYen. Not going to get greedy here with Yoda pushing the Yen around.

Booked half position E$ +101 and Kiwi$ +97 last night now doubled back down on both positions with stops just under BE. Having already booked a nice profit on both I have nothing to lose an everything to gain if this bear run has anything left in her.

Just shoveling more coal into the firebox on this southbound
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,446
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:23am Oct 31, 2011 4:23am
"The EFSF is basically an empty box filled with promises of money - many of them from the very people who are most likely to need to borrow that same money. Should they need to borrow the money, they won’t be able to make good on their promises so there will be less money for them to borrow. Now the brain trust running Europe have decided, in their collective wisdom, to apply leverage to the non-existent money in the empty box that they have yet to actually borrow,..."~Grant Williams~

.
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,447
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:26am Oct 31, 2011 4:26am
Quoting PipKiller
Booked +110 EurYen. Not going to get greedy here with Yoda pushing the Yen around.

Booked half position E$ +101 and Kiwi$ +97 last night now doubled back down on both positions with stops just under BE.
Nice going PK
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,448
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:27am Oct 31, 2011 4:27am
Quoting AaronWard
Meaning? A high volume battle zone?
I don't mind trading a range but highly volatile ranges are not easy. I end up taking off any size and I need to get paid. I got other sht to do...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,449
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:32am Oct 31, 2011 4:32am
Quoting The Fool
I don't mind trading a range but highly volatile ranges are not easy. I end up taking off any size and I need to get paid. I got other sht to do...
When the market gives me a meat grinder, I make hamburgers.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,450
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:38am Oct 31, 2011 4:38am
As I want to make you read the *.pdf posted by PipTrapper this morning, I am going to quote Grant Williams once more:


Quote:
"With the carefully orchestrated way in which the word ‘voluntary’ was unceremoniously shoehorned in front of the word ‘haircut’ this week and the unsurprising complicity of ISDA in declaring (seemingly with a straight face) that a failure to receive 50% of your investment back somehow does NOT constitute a credit event, yet another problem was ‘avoided’. However, avoiding that problem today (namely more huge losses for the banks who, along with holding long positions in sovereign debt themselves, wrote CDS protection for other holders of that same debt) could mean that tomorrow brings a whole new set of woes for two obvious reasons:

Firstly, there is no doubt in my mind that in very short order, the lawsuits will begin to cascade downfrom the holders of those CDS contracts. These holders have VERY deep pockets and stand to make or lose enormous amounts of money should this be allowed to stand. they will NOT go quietly - that
you can be sure of.

Secondly - and this is where the whole thing comes full circle - by ensuring CDS protection on sovereign debt doesn’t pay out upon default of the bonds, the Eurocrats have shot themselves in both feet simultaneously because they have taken away the most effective hedge for people buying government bonds." Grant Williams - Things that make you go hmmm...

Very nice stuff indeed PT, thanks for bringing my attention to it.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,451
  • Oct 31, 2011 4:43am Oct 31, 2011 4:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
When the market gives me a meat grinder, I make hamburgers.
provided it also gives you appropriate signals on the daily, 4 hour and hourly charts...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,452
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:08am Oct 31, 2011 5:08am
Quoting iqyu5an
Mr Soros, who achieved world wide fame when he bet against sterling remaining within the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the 1990s, said that the 50pc "haircut" on private bond holders would only reduce Greek debt by 20pc. He said that was insufficient to stop an economic decline in Greece which would lead to greater social unrest.

At present because the haircut is voluntary European leaders have said the Greek default is not considered a "credit event" which would spark CDS payouts and possibly a new financial crisis.

"So, from...
.
not euphoria follower
  • #6,453
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:11am Oct 31, 2011 5:11am
Quoting AaronWard
provided it also gives you appropriate signals on the daily, 4 hour and hourly charts...
This is the only chart you need to trade the Euro today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: angus-beef-chart.jpg Size: 138 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,454
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:14am Oct 31, 2011 5:14am
PT

That was an awesome read. I'll be going Hmmm....
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,455
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:25am Oct 31, 2011 5:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
"The EFSF is basically an empty box filled with promises of money - many of them from the very people who are most likely to need to borrow that same money. Should they need to borrow the money, they won’t be able to make good on their promises so there will be less money for them to borrow. Now the brain trust running Europe have decided, in their collective wisdom, to apply leverage to the non-existent money in the empty box that they have yet to actually borrow,..."~Grant Williams~

.
Don't forget, that the market follows Schrödinger rules. The box remains a superposition of a full box and an empty box, until they open it.
  • #6,456
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:37am Oct 31, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Blobik
Don't forget, that the market follows Schrödinger rules. The box remains a superposition of a full box and an empty box, until they open it.
Either way, the box represents either "Less money" or "More debt".
Without a delusion or a rabbit being pulled out of a hat, the situation in Europe has to get worse before it gets better.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,457
  • Oct 31, 2011 5:44am Oct 31, 2011 5:44am
Quoting Blobik
Don't forget, that the market follows Schrödinger rules. The box remains a superposition of a full box and an empty box, until they open it.


Been too long since I've been out of school. Need Buma in here to chart the quantum mechanics of E$
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,458
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:12am Oct 31, 2011 6:12am
Quoting PipKiller


Been too long since I've been out of school. Need Buma in here to chart the quantum mechanics of E$
Imagine two lines, on drilling its way down (looking for oli, maybe?) and one shooting up through the roof. The average is current price, but as we mentioned earlier, EUR is depending on outside energy resources. So the Euro may start drilling down to fix that.

However, everyone waits to double check, if the box does not contain some explosives capable of shooting it through the roof and to the orbit. But I think that EZ needs more some oli resources than a new space satellite, so drilling seems better option

ADD: Prepare to sound the horn of doom, unemployment in EZ higher this month. CPI green, but increase in consumer prices and higher unemployment... How will they sell that? Still, the difference between expectations and actual values is not huge, so the doom horn waits a little more.
  • #6,459
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:13am Oct 31, 2011 6:13am
I know this is the place for Euro hating, but since the Japanese have delivered the biggest blow to the Euro in awhile, I find this relevant.

Anybody want to guess what happens next ?

BTW that big flat line was a multibillion dollar buy limit for Yen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 65 KB
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,460
  • Oct 31, 2011 6:23am Oct 31, 2011 6:23am
Quoting AaronWard
I know this is the place for Euro hating, but since the Japanese have delivered the biggest blow to the Euro in awhile, I find this relevant.

Anybody want to guess what happens next ?

BTW that big flat line was a multibillion dollar buy limit for Yen.
I am not going to make any guesses, but I will make a supposition.

Let's suppose that Japan plans on helping the EZ with their SPIV.
This would mean that more Yens will be exchanged for Euros thereby lowering the value of the Yen even further and giving the Yen bulls a better entry point.
Circles within circles withing circles. Hmmmmm
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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