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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,881
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:32am Oct 31, 2011 2:32am
Quoting AntonA
The question is, where to from here? That intervention was less than many expected and less than it has been in the past. They no doubt are unhappy with how the interventions have been 'faded' by traders, potentially a multi-phase intervention to burn faders?
I agree a multi-phase intervention now will be key, and as you say to burn the faders like myself (short from 79.30).
The market will only keep rising if more buyers step in at these levels. As a trader looking for high probability levels, this certainly isn't one to buy at.
On past interventions they have all been sold into and until something changes I don't see how this one will be any different.

I had a small long running from last week which did nicely. But if I'm honest with myself 50% of that move has just gained back losses over the last few weeks trading this pair, leaving my about a 200 pip profit for the last couple of months on UJ, not very good.
  • #28,882
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:53am Oct 31, 2011 2:53am
Sounds like there's $4B on the bid here, just like there was up at 79.20

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...latest-on-boj/

What happens when they chew through that?


EDIT: hahaha, I post and it drops through.
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  • #28,883
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:57am Oct 31, 2011 2:57am
Hahahahah. Looks like that 4B ran out in less than 20 minutes....
  • #28,884
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:59am Oct 31, 2011 2:59am
Quoting Geppy
Sounds like there's $4B on the bid here, just like there was up at 79.20

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...latest-on-boj/

What happens when they chew through that?


EDIT: hahaha, I post and it drops through.
Loving this short I'm in... for now. I don't think Japan will intervene again until the Japanese markets open again tomorrow. Expect a large drop until then. I'll definitely be taking profits on this short before tomorrow, just in case.

EDIT: Although, it looks like there are more orders to absorb here at 78.80.
  • #28,885
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:00am Oct 31, 2011 3:00am
Looks like they're trying to defend the 78.80 level now.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #28,886
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:01am Oct 31, 2011 3:01am
Quoting Geppy
Looks like they're trying to defend the 78.80 level now.
They only have limited amounts of money.
  • #28,887
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:02am Oct 31, 2011 3:02am
sat0pi: they do have a tendency to intervene in the mornings don't they. That said this one smells different to the last ones and it at least looks like they've got an ongoing plan (SNB anyone?)

[edit] how long will 78.80 hold I wonder?
  • #28,888
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:06am Oct 31, 2011 3:06am
Quoting AntonA
sat0pi: they do have a tendency to intervene in the mornings don't they. That said this one smells different to the last ones and it at least looks like they've got an ongoing plan (SNB anyone?)
It does seem like they have massive orders set up to try and prevent the price from falling from the highs. I don't think they'll actually inject any more money into the market until morning though. In my opinion, the only thing these massive floor orders are doing are setting up an even bigger drop when they're broken. We'll see.
  • #28,889
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:13am Oct 31, 2011 3:13am
Quoting sat0pi
They only have limited amounts of money.
LOL ... you have lots to learn if you think thats the case.

(Please throw that kind of thinking out the window)
  • #28,890
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:14am Oct 31, 2011 3:14am
Quoting Warwick
LOL ... you have lots to learn if you think thats the case.

(Please throw that kind of thinking out the window)
You think they are going to vow to throw "unlimited amounts of money" at this thing to peg it at any certain level? I highly doubt that is the case.
  • #28,891
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:20am Oct 31, 2011 3:20am
Quoting sat0pi
You think they are going to vow to throw "unlimited amounts of money" at this thing to peg it at any certain level? I highly doubt that is the case.
Well your right in that sense, but never become dubious of a central bank's position, especially when you have a position on stream essentially "against" them. Always assume they are out to squash naysayers.

I mean, your trade is your trade. I cant speak out along those lines... but blah, you get the gist of what im saying....

--------

London is acting a bit weird though.... back to selling dollars it appears.
  • #28,892
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:23am Oct 31, 2011 3:23am
Quoting Warwick
Well your right in that sense, but never become dubious of a central bank's position, especially when you have a position on stream essentially "against" them. Always assume they are out to squash naysayers.

I mean, your trade is your trade. I cant speak out along those lines... but blah, you get the gist of what im saying....

--------

London is acting a bit weird though.... back to selling dollars it appears.
I know what you mean. I'm just saying I don't think Japan can or will act in the same way the SNB did/is. I know they CAN intervene again at any time, I just don't think these "floors" they've set up (if indeed it was them that set these floors) will hold for very long. As I said, I do fully expect the possibility of more intervention tomorrow.
  • #28,893
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:23am Oct 31, 2011 3:23am
Quoting sat0pi
They only have limited amounts of money.
Wrong. They actually have unlimited amounts of money just like any country that can print money at will. However, the repercussions can also be unlimited.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #28,894
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:25am Oct 31, 2011 3:25am
Quoting Geppy
Wrong. They actually have unlimited amounts of money just like any country that can print money at will. However, the repercussions can also be unlimited.
Semantics.
  • #28,895
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:25am Oct 31, 2011 3:25am
79.20-79.50 Big short money needs to be clear
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,896
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:25am Oct 31, 2011 3:25am
Finally BOJ showed some courage..

UJ is above 78.60 200dma on daily...

If this support holds then UJ is set for a nice bull rally....
  • #28,897
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:30am Oct 31, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Geppy
Looks like they're trying to defend the 78.80 level now.
Japan is defending nothing. Japan is getting ready for diner then some drinks, watch TV and go to sleep. Tomorrow is another day. That's not different in Japan.
In the meantime, some nice added money going short as a bonus on top of the bonus for today.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #28,898
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:30am Oct 31, 2011 3:30am
Quoting ultra_knight
Finally BOJ showed some courage..

UJ is above 78.60 200dma on daily...

If this support holds then UJ is set for a nice bull rally....
the momment you write this,UJ falls nicely and it fall 100 pips now
Nice BOJ..Nice...keep like that
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,899
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:32am Oct 31, 2011 3:32am
Quoting Geppy
Wrong. They actually have unlimited amounts of money just like any country that can print money at will. However, the repercussions can also be unlimited.
No Defense so far in the chart,only breaking upside and now we are drop 100 pips lower again
Nice BOJ...Very Nice...again and again...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,900
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:33am Oct 31, 2011 3:33am
Quoting ultra_knight
Finally BOJ showed some courage..

UJ is above 78.60 200dma on daily...

If this support holds then UJ is set for a nice bull rally....
would love to see 77.00 at MPP though

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