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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,341
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:45am Oct 30, 2011 9:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well actually I guess it's a matter of semantics. What I meant by "can kicking" was monetization of debt, which is exactly what sisse is suggesting as a solution, besides the second option of fiscal union. However, even with fiscal union, the debt is still there but the "poop-hit-fan" day of reckoning is delayed once more (can kicking again). Eventually, the debt will grow larger and it will have to be monetized. This cycle will keep going on until €30,000,000,000 will not even buy you a stick of chewing gum.
that would be a sad day. i see the way you guys do FA is by understanding different possible scenarios that could happen, like speculation perhaps?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,342
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:52am Oct 30, 2011 9:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
What I meant by "can kicking" was monetization of debt, which is exactly what sisse is suggesting as a solution, besides the second option of fiscal union.
I feel very uncomfortable with defending his statements, which are torn out of context of our PMs and feel a bit sorry for posting it.

Nevertheless, there are several ways for flooding market with liquidity and I am pretty sure sisse didnt mean monetization. How about lowering taxes, or some other fiscal expansion? Thats the real flooding.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,343
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:53am Oct 30, 2011 9:53am
Quoting AaronWard
PT -- even then, it will be worth more than the USD.
I disagree Aaron.

I am not suggesting that the problems in the US are going to be alleviated. I am only suggesting that a limit has been reached.

As for the EZ, the problems have quite a long way to go before reaching that desperate limit. There are still many options left such as monetization, haircuts, and a whole bunch more blah blah blah and delusion, which will all weigh heavy on the single currency.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,344
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:57am Oct 30, 2011 9:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
I disagree Aaron.

I am not suggesting that the problems in the US are going to be alleviated. I am only suggesting that a limit has been reached.

As for the EZ, the problems have quite a long way to go before reaching that desperate limit. There are still many options left such as monetization, haircuts, and a whole bunch more blah blah blah and delusion, which will all weigh heavy on the single currency.
in other words they are in less feces than europe? sentimentally? or logically?

mathmetically isnt the US more debted than Europe?

but i believe US is more fluid and more flexible with the debt than Europe. the whole socialist system makes it difficult for solving the problems.

US is state, and federal government. Done.

EZ is long list of this that this that.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,345
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:59am Oct 30, 2011 9:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
I disagree Aaron.

I am not suggesting that the problems in the US are going to be alleviated. I am only suggesting that a limit has been reached.

As for the EZ, the problems have quite a long way to go before reaching that desperate limit. There are still many options left such as monetization, haircuts, and a whole bunch more blah blah blah and delusion, which will all weigh heavy on the single currency.
Not a serious comment I would say I was just pulling your horns or twisting your tail... but you are a bear and have neither.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,346
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:08am Oct 30, 2011 10:08am
Quoting AaronWard
Not a serious comment I would say I was just pulling your horns or twisting your tail... but you are a bear and have neither.
Ahhh. You were trying to clip my claws then?
The more you clip them, the stronger they get
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,347
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:08am Oct 30, 2011 10:08am
Quoting bumapatria
US is state, and federal government. Done.

EZ is long list of this that this that.
Bingo
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,348
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:11am Oct 30, 2011 10:11am
one thing i havent failed to do is pick out keywords in analysts speech, or some ez politician speech. pedro rocks at the overall thing .

i am more of a general guy, and sentiment person.
e.g. If merkel says this, what would people be likely doing?

i mean i get lost sometimes in all ur analysis of all u great FA analysts, and i jsut pick up the really bigger picture with the keywords.

i steal and go lol
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,349
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:12am Oct 30, 2011 10:12am
Hi All,

Hope your all doing ok! loving the website, and newbie trader so all things are just imho (been studying this for months and am currently using a practice account

OK - so here is my opinion on EUR/USD for the coming week based on price action only (No tricks)

Close price friday: 1.41453
Major Supply @ 1.44730 - 1.45482
Minor Demand @ 1.39285
Major Demand starts @ 1.36242

--------------------------------
As shown, I have a short set as major supply has been tested 3 times, and rejected 3 times [1, 2 and 3], no reason to beleive this will be any different, despite the good news were still in a downtrend

Agree/Disagree/Discuss? PS Moderator pretty please will you approve my post

Forgot to mention distance to T1 = roughly 550pips and distance to T2 is about another 300 ontop -

Wikk!
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::Swarvy Pip Stealing nomad:: :-:Trading THV:Version 4 MTF Template!:-:
  • #6,350
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:22am Oct 30, 2011 10:22am
Quoting bumapatria
one thing i havent failed to do is pick out keywords in analysts speech, or some ez politician speech. pedro rocks at the overall thing .

i am more of a general guy, and sentiment person.
e.g. If merkel says this, what would people be likely doing?

i mean i get lost sometimes in all ur analysis of all u great FA analysts, and i jsut pick up the really bigger picture with the keywords.

i steal and go lol
Buma.
Obviously any fundamental discussions we have here about the macro view is not anything we can use to decide if we are going to buy or sell on Monday. It only gives us a guide as to where price is likely to go in the future should the current situation remain the same. That is all.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,351
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:31am Oct 30, 2011 10:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Buma.
Obviously any fundamental discussions we have here about the macro view is not anything we can use to decide if we are going to buy or sell on Monday. It only gives us a guide as to where price is likely to go in the future should the current situation remain the same. That is all.
Cheers
PT
speculative analysis

same with cycles.
its a guide, we do the rest of the feces
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,352
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:16am Oct 30, 2011 11:16am
Ok you saw my face. Now I shall evaporate in a mist and blur like Rompuy at his last press conference.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,353
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:24am Oct 30, 2011 11:24am
Mars Neptune Opposition:
They are opposite in their synodic cycle

Meaning of Mars: God of War, its a planet of energy, desire and action. it shows survival instinct and the animal nature of man. The negative of Mars is - recklessness, impatience, quick temper, argumentative, overly aggressive personality- Euro definitely.

Neptune meaning: Idealism, spirituality, imagination, illusions, confusion, dreams, intuition, fantasies, ideals, universality, escapism.

Analysis from this: Aggresive fantasy that euro is a safe invesment or a buy. Its a false hope.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,354
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:41am Oct 30, 2011 11:41am
Quoting bumapatria
Mars Neptune Opposition:
They are opposite in their synodic cycle

Meaning of Mars: God of War, its a planet of energy, desire and action. it shows survival instinct and the animal nature of man. The negative of Mars is - recklessness, impatience, quick temper, argumentative, overly aggressive personality- Euro definitely.

Neptune meaning: [font=Century Gothic]Idealism, spirituality, imagination, illusions,...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,355
  • Edited 11:52am Oct 30, 2011 11:47am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I made a bit cycle research, mainly because of Buma, but several people here were interested in this mumbo jumbo, se here it goes:
Tom
Nice. They key concept you pointed out is that cycle research is highly individualized. I try and highlight that concept when I get asked about my cycle research/trading.

I've been following this series of cycles on the Dow most of the year. I've got a buddy who is a hedge fund manager and he thought I was definitely talking mumbo jumbo every time I told him to expect a turn because no one can "time" the market. He still doesn't believe it's possible but now he asks with a bit more interest than just to laugh at me.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...22%2023.45.gif
  • #6,356
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:47am Oct 30, 2011 11:47am
Repost from my thread:
intensive analysis on current positions of celestial bodies:
I would love comments on this one

Neptune is in 8th house: "if Neptune occupies the 8th house, then money and business affairs involving others are literally involved. If a more aggressive personality seems to want something more, the native will simply cut them a better deal."

http://cafeastrology.com/articles/neptuneinhouses.html
Im thinking EZ on this one, meaning they are too aggressive, and by cutting them a better deal would mean defaulting and splitting of the EZ.
Mars is in 2nd House: "MARS IN THE SECOND HOUSE when well-aspected makes the nature free and generous in financial dealings with others. The person has a splendid earning capacity and will make a financial success in any business or a martial nature involving the use of fire, iron tools or machinery. It is also an indication of money by marriage or legacy, but although the money comes fast and easily, the person will not accumulate wealth as he is very generous and fond of comfort and pleasure."

http://astrology.astrozoom.com/index...E_SECOND_HOUSE

Splendid earning capacity and make financial success.... Im not thinking of the EZ on this one.

Mars in Leo:This position of Mars gives a drive for significance, a strong need to create.

Yup, trying to create some sort of false hope to avert attention elsewhere, and make 'significant' that EZ is not hellbound.

Moon is in Sagittarius:
When the going gets tough, these people run away. They don't like to be caught up in routine for too long, and they simply need to escape.
There's a blind faith in Lunar Sagittarians that is admirable. They simply believe that everything will work out. Not much for making detailed plans, people with Moon in Sagittarius prefer to wing it. They're very adaptable and generally on the go.

Eurozone politicans and the crisis they are having.


Sun is in scorpio:
(remember sun means life and creation)
Solar Scorpios absolutely have their own mind. And, their primary motivation is unlikely to be prestige (like their Capricorn friends), or even authority (Leos can have that, too)--it's real power. Their power can absolutely be of the "behind the scenes" variety, just as long as they have it.
To others, Scorpios seem to have plenty of willpower. They probably do. Scorpios do know what they want, and they won't go out and grab it at the wrong moment. They simply sit back, watch (quite expertly), and then get it only when the moment is just right. This apparent patience is simply their powerful skills at strategy at work.
Scorpio isn't afraid of getting their hands (their bodies, their minds) dirty. The darker side of life intrigues them, and they're always ready to investigate.


My analysis to that, is that they are not going to do much until the 'right time' and it has some sort of connotation to power with it. im guessing EZ breaks apart, and someone is already waiting for the throne.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,357
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:51am Oct 30, 2011 11:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Tom,

I am sure I don't have to tell you this, but I am writing it so others who do not know, may be enlightened.

Throughout the history of the FOMC, the can has been kicked and kicked down the road. They are experts at it. It is in their best interest to do it and it helps the big banks and corporations that influence the FOMC get richer and richer through more interest earned on more debt that is taken out to pay for the previous interest, etc etc.

Money creation can never stop without the consequence of economic contraction and/or failure....
this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^



I get called a conspiracy kook for saying such things. But hey, the earth was flat at one time, too, eh?
  • #6,358
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:58am Oct 30, 2011 11:58am
Quoting JR97
Nice. They key concept you pointed out is that cycle research is highly individualized. I try and highlight that concept when I get asked about my cycle research/trading.

I've been following this series of cycles on the Dow most of the year. I've got a buddy who is a hedge fund manager and he thought I was definitely talking mumbo jumbo every time I told him to expect a turn because now one can "time" the market. He still doesn't believe it's possible but now he asks with a bit more interest than just to laugh at me.

So very true. one does not need to trade based on current planetary positions, i just use it for my fundies analysis hehehehe.... and i just take synodic periods (cycles of interplanetary movements) and take a significant move liek the 08 drop start counting cycles from there. divide into 4 smaller cycles, and trade. Here is me using the moon's synodic period with earth wich is 29.5xxxx... so i rounded up to 30. red is full period, yellow is half.

i dont know for sure the moon;'s position in taht time, but im guessing big move, there is somewhat a planetary movement to it. bigger planets bigger swings. if you guys can do fundies analysis + ta + simple basic astrology correlation with news and current events. damn..

well here is chart. 23.6% retracement of fibonacci and my personalized moon cycle. i still keep in track of current movements, and im just starting another chart on real eventualities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,359
  • Oct 30, 2011 12:05pm Oct 30, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting JR97
this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^



I get called a conspiracy kook for saying such things. But hey, the earth was flat at one time, too, eh?
Well if it was just a theory, I would tend to agree with those who call you a kook. However, all the above is fact.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,360
  • Oct 30, 2011 12:15pm Oct 30, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting JR97
I've been following this series of cycles on the Dow most of the year.
Very nice cycles. DJIA is really incredibly important tool ideed. Good to know what is going on.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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