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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,301
  • Oct 29, 2011 7:43pm Oct 29, 2011 7:43pm
Now that looks awesome Aaron. So many usefull and complexe charts, I love that. I really enjoy looking at matters from different point of view and am looking forward for yesterday. Going to read it through, looks really great, now I am quite tired and mind isnt as sharp as it should be.

Cya tomorrow,

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,302
  • Edited Oct 30, 2011 12:44am Oct 29, 2011 8:00pm | Edited Oct 30, 2011 12:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
The paper is already dumped.
I'll believe that when we run out of trees in Canada.

BTW... you go me... I forgot that you are a retired (am I assuming something) computer whiz. However for the rest of us...

Anyway... for a long time I have seen the irony that we get up in the morning to go to work where we spend the day looking at a computer screen just so we can go home and spend more time looking at a computer screen.

Tom,

There are probably 3 dozen countries (or more) in the world currently running a currency peg.

When it comes to CB's you need to understand that one CB has the power to devalue their own currency to any level they feel happy with and two CBs working together can maintain any fix they want. What holds them back is other CBs and politics not a lack their own currency.

There are a few famous examples of CB's that get busted. England, Malaysia and Soros are commonly mentioned. But this only happens when the CB tries to prop their currency UP (not devalue it) and they are acting alone.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,303
  • Oct 29, 2011 8:10pm Oct 29, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting AaronWard
This currency has serious issues
Kudos on the macroeconomic thinking models in your link above.

That I tend to be more micro-/psych with trading, here's an offering to further all:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture AaronWard -- notes.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #6,304
  • Oct 29, 2011 8:21pm Oct 29, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Kudos on the macroeconomic thinking models in your link above.

That I tend to be more micro-/psych with trading, here's an offering to further all:

Attachment
Thanks Ha pattern... I have not seen this particular form of analysis. Can you use it to predict price movements?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,305
  • Oct 29, 2011 8:24pm Oct 29, 2011 8:24pm
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks Ha pattern... I have not seen this particular form of analysis. Can you use it to predict price movements?
I have no clue. Just an initial impression.

Could be fun to link a chart directly to psych somehow, tho. An ff member once suggested it's possible.
  • #6,306
  • Oct 29, 2011 10:22pm Oct 29, 2011 10:22pm
Short looks good So far - We need Breaking 1.4130 In order to continues the south
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4H.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #6,307
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:30am Oct 30, 2011 1:30am
Check out the forex calandar. We have:

ECB +Fed minutes
ECB + Fed rates
A variety of PMI's
A variety of different employment stats
G 20 meeting...

What seems to be worse is that there in no general agreement on what is going to happen with anything except the Fed interest rate...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,308
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:43am Oct 30, 2011 1:43am
Quoting AaronWard
What seems to be worse is that there in no general agreement on what is going to happen with anything except the Fed interest rate...
Many have been expecting FOMC to give the secret sign for more QE. But I say he won't. The real surprise will be Draghi. Maybe not such a surprise. Devaluation...debt monetization...peanutbutter & jelly.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,309
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:48am Oct 30, 2011 1:48am
Quoting The Fool
Many have been expecting FOMC to give the secret sign for more QE. But I say he won't. The real surprise will be Draghi. Maybe not such a surprise. Devaluation...debt monetization...peanutbutter & jelly.
Sounds like you have changed faces and are now a bear...can that be?

It seems to me that expectations for a hawkish Draghi and a dovish Bernanke are a big part of this 1100 pip run. If instead we get a dovish Draghi and a hawkish Bernanke...then we will have one happy PT.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,310
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:19am Oct 30, 2011 2:19am
Quoting AaronWard
Sounds like you have changed faces and are now a bear...can that be?
I honestly have no bias. I have been a usd bear in an obvious usd bear market. However, my best trades in the last few weeks have been on the AUD - long A/U.

A month ago I was saying I expected a Greek ejection from the EMU to be hatched in Cannes. Looks like a no-go now - too bad. The EZ crisis fix is just more can-kicking, imo. If the fix unravels under prssure from the bond market, China doesn't kick in the expected cash, etc, etc - so many things can go wrong, too numerous to list - then sure I could see a reversal and a long euro slide. I won't be sitting that out if/when it comes about.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,311
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:05am Oct 30, 2011 3:05am
Quoting AaronWard
Since we all seem to like to discuss charts, globalization and fundamentals...this provides something new to look at.

http://www.businessinsider.com/atlas...exity-2011-10#
I enjoyed that Aaron. Thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,312
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:13am Oct 30, 2011 3:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Sounds like you have changed faces and are now a bear...can that be?

It seems to me that expectations for a hawkish Draghi and a dovish Bernanke are a big part of this 1100 pip run. If instead we get a dovish Draghi and a hawkish Bernanke...then we will have one happy PT.
Now that sounds like a wet dream
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,313
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:15am Oct 30, 2011 3:15am
Quoting The Fool
so many things can go wrong, too numerous to list - then sure I could see a reversal and a long euro slide. I won't be sitting that out if/when it comes about.
As you've probably noticed, I've already book my tickets for that train ride.
1st class seats for the price of economy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,314
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:28am Oct 30, 2011 3:28am
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen,

Quoting AaronWard
There are probably 3 dozen countries (or more) in the world currently running a currency peg.

When it comes to CB's you need to understand that one CB has the power to devalue their own currency to any level they feel happy with and two CBs working together can maintain any fix they want. What holds them back is other CBs and politics not a lack their own currency.
I am aware of currency peg issue. It is each countrys own decision not to be on floating, which is resulting in outflow of investors out of country and slow national growth. Thats the bad way. Otherwise, market rules the price, not CB.

They can simulate something like currency peg, while coordinating their actions, which is happening right now. Thats why CB seem so powerfull now, but that is only because this is international CB coordination led by FED, which is the strongest. But even then, their power is limited and has its costs, which are incredibly high. Even if Fed swapped 400 Bn, only Citi group has balance sheet @ 2 Tr USD, and that is just one institution. Look at Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas. That is the market.

Next point I was trying to make, which was somehow lost in monetary policy exploration, were actions of politicians. FED may do a liquidity swap with amount of 400Bn $ and influence some monetary base (2 bases here - 30 year bonds and 1-3 year obligations). This would eventually result in inflation, yet it doesnt, as everyone just holds shortterm assets aware of crisis and ready to buy once markets crumble. Anyway, they only can adress value of currency and using these, only inderectly influence gdp, which is essential here.

However, government fiscal stimuls affect gdp directly, which is a big difference. Obama with 470 Bn $ fiscal stimul could produce debt gpd directly. Politicians are very dangerous, they dont have to be educated and do agressive actions. Fiscal stimuls have incredible impact on economy and every trader should be aware of that.

Boosting of EFSF in any form is a gigantic negative fiscal stimul. They suck out money out of taxpayers, lowering consumer spending and use em for toxic assets. Down with Euro I say!

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,315
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:39am Oct 30, 2011 3:39am
4 Aaron.

Man I guess I am going to print those charts and wallpaper whole room, so I can look at it all the time .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,316
  • Oct 30, 2011 3:41am Oct 30, 2011 3:41am
German Finance Minister Plays Down Summit Success

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble played down the impact of the European Union's latest deal on stemming the euro-zone debt crisis, according to a pre-release of an interview he gave to Der Spiegel magazine.
"The summit last week brought us a good bit further," Schaeuble was quoted as saying. "But it will not have been the last meeting on this issue."
Europe still has a long way to go before all of the problems related to the euro-zone debt crisis will be solved, he said.

George Soros attacks Brussels rescue deal

Veteran investor George Soros has attacked the lack of leadership at the top of the eurozone and said that the new Brussels "deal" to solve the debt crisis will only last between "one day and three months".
Mr Soros, who achieved world wide fame when he bet against sterling remaining within the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the 1990s, said that the 50pc "haircut" on private bond holders would only reduce Greek debt by 20pc. He said that was insufficient to stop an economic decline in Greece which would lead to greater social unrest.

Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks

The eurozone must be consolidated. World leaders should similarly force European banks to disclose their losses, we all take the hit and then we move on. Instead, we are served-up, in ever more complex variants, the same "extend and pretend" non-solutions. It gives me no pleasure to write this, but I give this deal two weeks.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,317
  • Edited 5:46am Oct 30, 2011 3:49am | Edited 5:46am
PT,

Here my call about UJ next week on Thursday - Personaly I'm believe everything connected one each other until now and each price close and open would not be just happened like that - there's must have reason behind this all for now and future projection even we dont know at what prices each pair will be heading but at least we have a bit outlook for what might be happening

@ Thursday Daily Bar must be meet the Monthly Bar which located @ 73.55 and if this is valid then that would be the last bottom for UJ and the Intervention might begin after G20 Meeting

Personaly I dont think 75 area would invited Japan Authority to step in and take action,But @ 73 level am believe that highly of chance may force them using their last samurai

I am attached the Monthly chart of UJ which should be valid one but turn in mess last time when Japan hit by the earthquake and was cause a big spike down as you can see in the picture then I am tried again connected the trend from the top to the spike down bar for a projection

Hopes this is help

Note : Please dont follow this as this is only forecast - Just trying to contribute
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly BarQuakes.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily - EW.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly - EW.png Size: 39 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #6,318
  • Oct 30, 2011 5:15am Oct 30, 2011 5:15am
Quoting AaronWard
It seems to me that expectations for a hawkish Draghi and a dovish Bernanke are a big part of this 1100 pip run. If instead we get a dovish Draghi and a hawkish Bernanke...then we will have one happy PT.
Quoting The Fool
Many have been expecting FOMC to give the secret sign for more QE. But I say he won't.
I fully agree, that some QE expectations are already priced in. I would not expect the whole run to be the fault of QE expectations, and I think we know a little about Draghi so I don't know if anything about him is priced.

But important thing to note is that we made a 200 pip move, when FOMC started babbling about QE. This means, we should make at least around 100 pip down, if Bernanke makes it clear, that right now QE is not to be there soon. The market will probably start expecting QE after a month again, but for a week or two all QE thinking will be banned.

If we make additional bull run before Fed statements, we may get additional fall if there will be "no QE" statement. I think that another run as powerful as the one that was more than a month ago is unlikely, unless something else causes panic sell of stocks. There is a chance, that some rating agency is awaiting to jump in with some ratings cut when the market gets less bullish, as some consider them to be manipulating the market to the downside.

Any other bad data can contribute to the downward move, but only a "full-combo strike" can definitely end this bull run. If we get mixed signals, then hello sudeway trading. After all, the fall (21.IX) was strenghtened by poor data, so everything lined up and forced markets into huge downward move.

Right now everything is flying. To shot that many planes down one needs a lot of ammo, and precise timing. Then bears may become rich

I don't expect a dovish Draghi, but if we get hawkish Bernanke that will soften the bullishness, then even a "not-hawkish, not-dovish" Draghi may have some impact.

If we manage to break some technical borders and form some nice patterns (daily, weekly) then we may say "downtrend resumed". But if don't get really hawkish Bernanke, I thing market will continue to believe "maybe he will be dovish next time!".

Any postponing things weakens the dollar, as it maintains status quo - awaiting for the storm. So only clear message "market, you are expecting something unreal" can make a change, without it EUR will keep trying to punch higher because USD will keep getting dumped. After all, if the storm comes, you can buy USD even a bit late, and there is high probability you will profit from it. But if storm does not come, then why hold USDs?

I think that is the way the market follows. Hoping to get truckload of USDs after the lightning strikes, preferring to stick to risk assets in case it somehow won't.
  • #6,319
  • Oct 30, 2011 5:40am Oct 30, 2011 5:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen,



I am aware of currency peg issue. It is each countrys own decision not to be on floating, which is resulting in outflow of investors out of country and slow national growth. Thats the bad way. Otherwise, market rules the price, not CB.

They can simulate something like currency peg, while coordinating their actions, which is happening right now. Thats why CB seem so powerfull now, but that is only because this is international CB coordination led by FED, which is the strongest. But even then, their power...
tom, I am glad you like the charts, you might want to read a bit about CBs though. they have a lot more power than you think. And also look at Also, some of the fastest growing economies in the world (ie China) use a currency peg. Anyway, I am not going to argue it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,320
  • Oct 30, 2011 5:41am Oct 30, 2011 5:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
As you've probably noticed, I've already book my tickets for that train ride.
1st class seats for the price of economy
Now all you need is the train
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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