M15 Trading Method (help required!)

No chance of a trade today the pull backs would have to be huge before I even considered it.

Pull backs would have to be really huge here, CRAZY day.

Why I'm pulling the SL, they ran it down hit the stops then ran it up, so trading no SL hunting for huge occasional losses!!

Okay quick flick through EU so far back 4 months ish or something and no SL wise.


I'd guess at 95%+ win rate, which is pretty good, I wasn't far off this before a run of bad SL's so no issues believing that.

70%+ of the time, if the 540 breaks it's going to the 1300 if it moves back upto 540 and fails it'll get there pretty quick.

70%+ of 1300 breaks, retest the 1300 before tanking giving me a less painful exit which I have to take cause the stat's are against me.

Nothing has really changed, if the trend is up, go long on a pull back and keep holding until the trend is no longer up, at that stage I look for a soft exit / bail which is the tricky part.

97% win rate can be undone very quickly with no SL, which is the downside.

On the basis I need to get a move on and could / can add more funds if required.

I'm going to stick to the same Lot sizes almost as I'm using currently, yes if that 3% chance happens I'll take a big loss and that 1% chance if I let it go to far I'll blow 50% of the account but hey, hopefully I can role the dice if market conditions look choppy and not like the last few days and get away with it 10x's tripling my account then I'll be trading the same but less risk due to bigger account.


Time is wasting!!

You must hate churning.

I do practice mental SL's, about 0-25 pips (gbpusd simulator '09/10). Only, almost as much I either have very high SL's, like 10-50 pip TP's and 120 SL's, and when the SL's hit I consider it a margin call.

So occasionally, and in particular recently, I include middle SL's, same TP's and 50 SL's, to see if I can encourage better (mental) SL's. This has, thus far, only resulted in churning.

Today, I boosted the efficacy of my chart data with chart-only interpretation of news (minute of announcement), because all I was doing to create trade reasons was to combat a chart's randomness with drawing devices built upon chart patterns.
I have no idea it'll work, since it may just be me ruining the trades, what with the constant psych changing while trading 1' charts.

Anyhow, I hope you break through your wide P/L swings to clear earnings. Must be nice, over-50:1 leverage.

Did a backtest just 13 trades called on EU, here are the results.

The difference between SL and No SL's isn't that much, +1010 without no losers, +880 with, 2 losers, losers contain a bigger bang than the profits 2 reasons.

That's max ish average profit, I'm performing much less than that live, averaging down then SL's are whats crippling me.

Hmmmmmmm!!

okay I'm rethinking no SL's as long term a few over night holds would be suicide, rare maybe 1 a month but if your in it then -200 pips which would be -$100.

Sooooo...............................


1st position generally works, but I'm not making enough as I'm going small, then increasing the lots as they go, this isn't working as odds on next position working decrease, so need to flip this.

Buy 2 then 1 then 1 then 1 MAX. ( as account increases, then 3,2,1,1 and so on )

I was doing 10pips away the other day, which forces me to have tight ish SL's.

So long 90 x 2, then 70 x 1 then 50 x1 then 30 x1 SL at 10, -80 from first position, total $'s lost -16 - 6 -4 -2 = -$28, too much I fear.

So long 90 x 2, then 70 x 1 then 50 x1 SL at 30, -60 from first position, total $'s lost -12 - 4 -2 = -$18, might be better.

Thinking 60 is enough.

So how about 3,2,1 more aggressive as said.

-18 -8 -2 = -$28 That trade that SL'd woulda held out, but close.

Average woulda been 121.10 x 6 exit say 121.70 so $0.60 * 70 = +$42

Same entry SL 70 cost would be -22 -10 -3 =-$35 give the last position more wiggle room, costly when hit but slacker and better than no SL at all maybe.

Bad example as JPY pair 30% more risk / profit due to rate, I'll trade 2,1,1 on JPY or CHF pairs I think.

Yes I'm thinking out loud here!!!


Okay, think I'm decided on the plan.


Plan is SL 60, 3, 2, 1 with 20pip orders set spacing from first entry.

( 2,1,1 if JPY or CHF Pair )

BUT..... If trade is a weak entry rules wise then I'll push it upto 70 MAX!!!

Okay those are my MM rules, there risky but time is limited to get this profitable and wage takeable.

I place the trade and set the SL and Orders the same every time regardless, because it's a statistically sound plan so repeat repeat repeat.

And if I don't get a pull back and more positions in, 0.3 would be enough to make me happy. 0.1 or 0.2 isn't.

Role on markets open, expect no trades Monday unless a harsh pull back happens though

Re checking the chart, 60 is enough on EurUsd which I was testing with last night, so the SL 60, 3 - 2 - 1 is fine on EU, but GU needs 80 SL so going to use 80SL 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 total loss $34.

Cheat sheet for me to take a photo off


EURUSD 60 SL 3 - 2 - 1 Spread 20 SL = -$28
GBPUSD 75 SL 3 - 2 - 1 Spread 25. SL = -$35
AUDUSD 75 SL 3 - 2 - 1 Spread 25. SL = -$35.
EURJPY 60 SL 2 - 2 -1 Spread 20 SL = -$28.60.
USDCAD 60 SL 3 - 2 -1 Spread 20 SL = -$28
NZDUSD 60 SL 3 - 2 -1 Spread 20 SL = -$28
USDCHF 60 SL 2 - 2 -1 Spread 20 SL = -$26.40



GPBJPY was 45 SL which lost and 35 for NZDUSD, so slackened them off a lot, back testing with above, allowing for average entrys gives very very few SL hits, the 1's which are left are pretty much required which is the point.

Bigger SL, means I'm trading 1 position at a time, likely best anyway.


Well thats the plan, role on forward testing when the markets re open and pull back to give me safe entrys

Dude missed that while writing the 1 below you, how goes ??

200:1 leverage I think, just means I haven't got to have huge money in the account, losses are the same ofcourse in $ terms.

Filtering out the Randomness of the market while staying on trend but not letting it run to far if the trend fails is tricky, whilst exploiting that drop to bring your average down to .

My System is there, not working on that, it's just the execution of it which needs work, always another problem to solve, here is hoping thats the last problem and it's solved but find out soon

You still on M1 charts ?? go M15 I've found this game much much easier on M15's, it's just enough info to trade off and does hide much of the randomness, M30 and on haven't got enough info to trade off and 4H just ridiculous, for the intraday swings I'm aiming for I'll add.

Have you considered varying the SL by the angle of the 540?

To complicated and hard to judge the angle as such, I'm trying to match SL requirement to my range, if I start buying at the bottom of the 0.4% range and it has a blip outside of the 0.7% range then I don't want to be kicked out.

Obviously if it trends like USDCAD did on Thursday then I don't want to stop in for 120pips while I sleep.

That and I've got 2 mates who'll be using this as a kinda team, I know the 1's got issues with taking losses so it's got to have pretty set rules and a method with low losers for this to work long term.

I'll try above and if it's failing modify for effect based on what's not working.

I want 90%+ average profit rate ( I don't want much LOL ), but got to accept bigger 10% losers.

We shall see over the next week or 2 no doubt!!

I hate the next week or 2 when the UK to USA clocks are different times so different news and market opening times, confused the hell out of me every year.

Dratts turned chart off while working, missed a nice little down bump.


If only I'd of went, ohhh lets go long on EJ for a laugh I coulda taken 400pips profit in the last hour madness and a good example of why not to trade without SL's, wrong side of that and -$200 at $0.5 just like that.

Likely jumped through SL anyway, ecckkss.

All setup here but must resist with Jpy melting down it could become a trend changer, hopefully a bargain pull back dead cert in the am, but my method will likely work just to annoy me

I resisted, no trades till this calms down a bit last night was crazy x's 100.


New Laptop and Mifi is here, it's been 2 doors down for 7 days and they didn't put a note through the door and she didn't think twice about not telling me sooner LOL

But should be able to watch markets more.

Market conditions from all the extreme news are well out of whack and very risky at the moment.


Saying that, Time of entry and GU's position I've gone lone, 0.3 lots, with 0.2 25 lower and 0.1 25 lower again, SL 75.

GU's about the only pair performing okay to the system currently.


We shall see!!

Still hovering at BE current conditions this worries me, as everything else is in a major short term downtrend it could get dragged down with it.

75 pips down, is the risk, 50pips down then back to 540lwma +120pips!!

Tad more buying off this lower low, not low enough to fill the other order, but so close.

Got to be in it to win it, so guess we'll see!!

2nd position in so 0.5 which is a lot for a $205 but hey, avg buy = 1.5925.

Buyers here are more encouraging, all other pairs showing similar signs.


Someone will take advantage of this sale to buy or close there shorts sooner or later, it's just being around and efficent enough to long term profit from it.

If it hits SL by 4 pips and reverses first trade out then I quit