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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,221
  • Oct 28, 2011 4:35pm Oct 28, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here's my technical justification
6. End of wave 5 (Elliot Wave Analysis)
.
I am not very good at EW, but if we considered, that we are not in end of wave 5, but in end of wave 3? I think those huge daily candles can be treated like waves, cannot they? Or do they break some rules regarding Elliot Waves?

Just curious how you count yours, as they are sometimes hard for me to count.

But even person like me, can notice this two huge candles, and only one greater retracement - between them!
  • #6,222
  • Oct 28, 2011 4:55pm Oct 28, 2011 4:55pm
where's our buddy allorente?

he was short from 38-39's w no stop loss and said his account never got stopped out in 5 yrs or more, something like that..
200% margin w no stop loss against 350 pip increase. this is probably the second time then..

i remember he already funded the account once around 39s, and said he never does that..
  • #6,223
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:10pm Oct 28, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting drtorque
where's our buddy allorente?

he was short from 38-39's w no stop loss and said his account never got stopped out in 5 yrs or more, something like that..
200% margin w no stop loss against 350 pip increase. this is probably the second time then..

i remember he already funded the account once around 39s, and said he never does that..
poitn is he is fluid like water and not rigid. he is flexible like me, redlion etc. .... etc... stops limit your risk of loss profile to say a rate of 1 for example. it can float around with no stop loss and with different techniques that can become 0 -4 or -10 or less. meaning you are at BE or profit. when done worng it becomes +2, +5, etc meaning risk is larger.

its style again. hes cool
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,224
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:15pm Oct 28, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting Blobik
I am not very good at EW, but if we considered, that we are not in end of wave 5, but in end of wave 3? I think those huge daily candles can be treated like waves, cannot they? Or do they break some rules regarding Elliot Waves?

Just curious how you count yours, as they are sometimes hard for me to count.

But even person like me, can notice this two huge candles, and only one greater retracement - between them!
Here's the count

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 24 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,225
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:19pm Oct 28, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here's the count

.
abc soon i gueess.
go cycles go Elliot wave go everything!
hey Pt u might not be into speculative markets through planetary cycles, but u do realize that elliot waves are S.M. as well right?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,226
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:20pm Oct 28, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting bumapatria
abc soon i gueess.
go cycles go Elliot wave go everything!
hey Pt u might not be into speculative markets through planetary cycles, but u do realize that elliot waves are S.M. as well right?
The Elliot wave is only 1 of 7 indicators that point south. I added it for effect only.


Quoting PipTrapper
Here's my technical justification

Daily Chart:
1. 76.6% Fibo resistance (orange)
2. 61.8% Fibo resistance (blue)
3. Bearish divergence (MacD)
4. Stochastics Overbought and line cross over / pointing down
5. Rising channel resistance
6. End of wave 5 (Elliot Wave Analysis)
7. 1.4250 is the prior broken support from early September and has turned into key resistance.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,227
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:38pm Oct 28, 2011 5:38pm
cycles are in effect next week moon is today really, and over weekend i do not know the effect, lets see.

all my fan resistance and supply zones are all in current price area.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,228
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:40pm Oct 28, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting bumapatria
cycles are in effect next week moon is today really, and over weekend i do not know the effect, lets see.

all my fan resistance and supply zones are all in current price area.
So if I am wrong about this trade we can throw out all our TA indies and start gambling?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,229
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:40pm Oct 28, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting bumapatria
poitn is he is fluid like water and not rigid. he is flexible like me, redlion etc. .... etc... stops limit your risk of loss profile to say a rate of 1 for example. it can float around with no stop loss and with different techniques that can become 0 -4 or -10 or less. meaning you are at BE or profit. when done worng it becomes +2, +5, etc meaning risk is larger.

its style again. hes cool
i dont think his account survived a 350 pip move bc he said he uses aggressive 200% margin. in itself its a stoploss. account goes bust, you stop.

i think what you're saying is the true meaning of rigidity, thats not stoploss..
i believe by "fluid" and given your age, you're referring to bruce lee if you wanna do that, "fluid", to the contrary you have to use stoploss.

100-200 pip loss floating around resembles rigidity more than fluidity. its coming from an old chemical engineer who had a thesis on fluid mechanics

ps. id recommend you to be more flexible actually. you are too argumentative even on the subjects you are not sure about, you don't leave room for your mistake. and you are mistaken a lot of times as I see here. you have to train your ego, you're coming off too strong.
  • #6,230
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:42pm Oct 28, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting PipTrapper
So if I am wrong about this trade we can throw out all our TA indies and start gambling?
dont blame the game, blame the player
  • #6,231
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:07pm Oct 28, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting drtorque
you said you wouldnt trade anymore if it broke and close above 1.41s yesterday.. .
Ehem. That was me who said that and I said it with tongue in cheek


Quoting PipTrapper
I currently see lots of resistance between 1.4010/20 and it's holding well so far. If it manages to break through on the up side then we will be targeting 1.4060/1.4100
If it manages to break through and do a daily close above 1.41, then I would say the market has gone mad and I will quit trading until I can make sense of it.
I know we are not in normal times, but sometimes you just gotta shake your head.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,232
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:11pm Oct 28, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting drtorque
dont blame the game, blame the player
You got it wrong, its dont hate the player hate the game
  • #6,233
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:11pm Oct 28, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting drtorque
i dont think his account survived a 350 pip move bc he said he uses aggressive 200% margin. in itself its a stoploss. account goes bust, you stop.

i believe by "fluid" and given your age, you're referring to bruce lee if you wanna do that, "fluid", to the contrary you have to use stoploss.
I think that fluid thing is also for me, given the fact I'm 14 too... Are you fluid?? be like bruce lee and die then

orr.... be a good trader and make profits that came from your effort and from accepting your mistakes...

HEYY! I did say accepting your mistakes... WHY? because we all make them

Am I lying??? weren't you underwater after doing the chick ?? I do chicks but don't have to lose hundreds of pips for doing so... were you using a STOP LOSS?? no you didn't...

So, please... save your words, that might be useful anywhere but here... because... nobody's crazy to leave a trade with no Stoploss, without constantly monitoring it... right?

Oopss, that's you

No offense... but facts

Pedro Blas
  • #6,234
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:30pm Oct 28, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting Blobik

PT, about Elliot Waves - what do you think about my approach, to treat whole movement up to almost 1.39 as a first wave? Then we could suppose we are in a 3rd wave... Do you see anything that denies it as such EW would be incorrect, or invalid cause breaking some EW rules? I don't use EW to much, but for a newbie looking on daily, it may seem more bullish. and perhaps it would last until the end of the year.... meaning, that Fed would actually manage to beat USD till January.
Elliot wave analysis gives no shortage of reasons to consider this upward run over at the recent high, if you look at various time scales. The run up from the October 4th low to 1.39 would be a five-wave A of a zig zag. It then made a brief downward push, wave B, and then up in wave C which just topped at the recent high in a fifth wave spurt on falling momentum. That's my take on it. Could play out different but I doubt it. October 4th was the 5th wave of a larger-degree wave 1 down. The way I see it, we're about to enter an intense selling phase, which will be wave 1 of 3, followed by a some correction, then the mother down-wave, wave 3 of 3 (actually wave 3 of 3 of 3, if 2008 was all just a wave 1). The fact that we sit on the brink of a collapse in the Euro is reinforced by my reading of many other markets which should be trending in step with the Euro, as economies collapse and, as investors revert to cash holdings, the USD gets strong just as it did during the 2008 fiasco -- which itself was a large time-scale global Wave 1 as I noted above.

So this is where I see us -- on the brink of wave 1 of 3 of 3 of 3 the greatest financial debacle of all time. So get ready to go short... And start counting the waves... it's almost party time.
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #6,235
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:32pm Oct 28, 2011 6:32pm
Uranus at 0 degrees currently, and passing new house.

simplicity: when a planet passes a new house and an important angle, shit's bound to happen if it does, it does, if it doesnt then uranus is a true anus. which it aint. because uranus takes a long time to reach 0 degrees 90 degrees etc. big planet, big orbit, long revolution period round the sun.

in planetary studies like gann (well sort of is him!) we take into effect the most important angles: 0, 90 180, 270, 360.

if uranus a long term planet of 'finance' and 'markets'. so a planet with lots of magnetic pull and gravity, is bound to have an effect when its in this cycle. and the markets.

how? why? why i dont know. how is because there is a divine power at work, some call it God, or the Divine Being, some call it a deity, etc. but astrology is everywhere on the Bible, Quran, and most holy books.

any questions? thats as clear as i get.

and for EW go look at above post. reall clearer than i can go with it.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,236
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:57pm Oct 28, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting Blobik
PT, about Elliot Waves - what do you think about my approach, to treat whole movement up to almost 1.39 as a first wave? Then we could suppose we are in a 3rd wave... Do you see anything that denies it as such EW would be incorrect, or invalid cause breaking some EW rules? I don't use EW to much, but for a newbie looking on daily, it may seem more bullish. and perhaps it would last until the end of the year.... meaning, that Fed would actually manage to beat USD till January.
What comes after a 5 wave move upwards in EW theory? There are three options that I know of. There are more but they are not common and I don't know them. Here are the ones I know.

1. A corrective 3 wave move (abc) in the opposite direction also known as a bull flag followed by a new bullish 5 wave move.

2. Two corrective 3 wave moves (abc bearish followed by abc bullish) followed by a new bearish 5 wave move. (also known as a double top pattern)

3. One multiwave move sideways (range or accumulation) followed by a new 5 wave move in either direction (breakout).

Therefore, my Elliot count does not mean that the bull market will not continue. It just means that one of the above 3 options will take place. Mind you, I believe this to be a 5 wave move of a much larger completion of a 3 wave (ABC) correction which further reinforces a bear market. However, since I am not an expert at wave counts, I will discount that for now.

My other 6 justifications do not suggest a bear market will follow. They only suggest a correction after hitting a confluence of resistance points.

Anything is possible. It is good that you are considering the possibility of the Euro rallying till year end because it is in fact one of the possibilities Slim but still possible. However, do not marry it. Remain nimble and open to all possibilities.

For me personally, the reason I am not taking any long positions is because I only trade in the direction that is supported by economic fundamentals. I have repeatedly said this on this thread from my very first analysis. Yes, I have missed out on a 1000 pip rally and a couple of major corrections on the way down to 1.3144, but I really don't care about that. I have made thousands of pips in profit just this year alone trading in the direction that made sense from both a TA and FA perspective. Therefore I do not have to take the risk of going counter to my system just because the central bankers want to execute their monetary policies contrary to what is good for the economies just for the sake of preventing their wealthy friends from losing money at the expense of the hard working middle class taxpayer, or for any other political agendas they may be executing. I am a very patient trader. If I see an opportunity to take a short, I will take advantage of it as it might be the short that keeps falling. I will execute that short based on sound TA and FA. If my TA and FA tell me to go long, then I will. As evidenced by my previous post, I have done my homework and my homework suggests that we may very well see an ABC correction... probably more. We'll see on Monday how that plays out.

I hope the above puts things in better perspective.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,237
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:59pm Oct 28, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting Wavesurfer
Elliot wave analysis gives no shortage of reasons to consider this upward run over at the recent high, if you look at various time scales. The run up from the October 4th low to 1.39 would be a five-wave A of a zig zag. It then made a brief downward push, wave B, and then up in wave C which just topped at the recent high in a fifth wave spurt on falling momentum. That's my take on it. Could play out different but I doubt it. October 4th was the 5th wave of a larger-degree wave 1 down. The way I see it, we're about to enter an intense selling phase,...
Thanks for clarifying that WaveSurfer. I am not an Elliot Wave student so I wasn't sure if I got my counts right. Hopefully we're both right on this, but if not, it's okay. I'm nimble
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,238
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:35pm Oct 28, 2011 7:35pm
sun mercury venus all in scorppio now.

brief on scorpio:
Ruler: Pluto / Element: Water / Mode: Fixed
Pole: Negative / Third: Individual / Half: Objective
Transformation, change, ego-death, rebirth, transcendence; intense emotional involvement with the process of personal growth; movement from individual certainties to the "mysteries of life"; spirit breaking through the limitations of individual ego.
Intense, passionate, brooding, magnetic; stubborn, unyielding, driven by emotions; stands up for self, usually covertly, manipulates power; understands deeper layers of the psyche beyond the ego, unable to communicate this well leading to misunderstandings; intrigued by the "dark side" of life; the underground, people whose job involves going beneath surface appearances; sexuality, especially the transformative power of the orgasm; self-mastery, breaking free of illusory limitations, the Hero.

doesnt that sound like the dollar?
any votes on either this sounds like the euro or the dollar?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,239
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:13pm Oct 28, 2011 9:13pm
Quoting Pbh
I think that fluid thing is also for me, given the fact I'm 14 too... Are you fluid?? be like bruce lee and die then

orr.... be a good trader and make profits that came from your effort and from accepting your mistakes...

HEYY! I did say accepting your mistakes... WHY? because we all make them

Am I lying??? weren't you underwater after doing the chick ?? I do chicks but don't have to lose hundreds of pips for doing so... were you using a STOP LOSS?? no you didn't...

So, please... save your words, that might be useful anywhere but here......
i didnt see any problems with your style, you dont need to get offended. and i dont even understand what your blaming me with??? of course i use a stoploss, of course i lose money. mostly i use tight stop, sometimes larger.
which chick your talking about?? what day, i have a portfolio of them lol...

probably what might have happened was, if i got stopped out, but i still beleive in the position, i reopen..
  • #6,240
  • Oct 28, 2011 9:15pm Oct 28, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting sidhujag
You got it wrong, its dont hate the player hate the game
i dont think so.. in case it wasnt clear, technical analysis is not wrong, we , ppl make mistakes and its not right to say, TA is wrong..
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