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  • #6,181
  • Oct 28, 2011 10:59am Oct 28, 2011 10:59am
Quoting drtorque
short from 4165
SL 4180


TP: all the way till the financial system collapses
You mean, "I don't think she will reach my SL before hitting 1.30" ? I am not so sure about that, I guess some ranging will occur. Perhaps something that will look similar to a bullish flag, but will be very... imperfect? Something, that will suggest to someone with bullish bias that it is going to go up. And then I will be more eager to short. Today I am doing my best not to enter during last 2 hours. I will have more time on Monday and Tuesday, and I will be able to make my money then. (Or losses, who knows )
  • #6,182
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:03am Oct 28, 2011 11:03am
Quoting drtorque
then again this uptrend might be the correction in downtrend
Which was really a correction in an uptrend from 1.18
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,183
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:08am Oct 28, 2011 11:08am
Quoting AaronWard
Today was, to me, an extremely bullish signal. All we could manage after a 350 pip rise was a little bit of consolidation.
People like to talk about the fundies in this thread. The hard thing about FA in a time of persistent and sometimes coordinated CB intervention is that ... most of it doesn't really matter if it is not directly anticipating/factoring in whatever the CB's may be doing.

It is really clear that there at the first of the month there began a coordinated CB action - really right in the nick of time, as the markets were at the cliffedge - to provide massive liquidity and stoke the risk-on market fires. I have been blowing that horn here for the euro-bears but it seems most of them have me on ignore.

And they're not done. The Fed is likely to (imo) pose pretty doveish re: further QE, since we have a persistent unemployment problem here in the US and a major part of their mandate is to do whatever they can in order to promote full employment.

Everyone is yelling for Draghi to cut rate as soon as he is sworn in but most of the savvy eurozone watchers say he will not. Could be a game-changer if he does. Obviously another reversal switch would be the unravelling of the crisis fix plan. Should be obvious by now that they are not gonna let the euro go down without a fight...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,184
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:09am Oct 28, 2011 11:09am
Quoting AaronWard
Which was really a correction in an uptrend from 1.18
you meant 0.85? hahahaha

my biggest fear is breaking up EZ and losing Euro to trade.
It'll be really confusing, and tiring to follow bunch other currencies instead of just Euro...
  • #6,185
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:17am Oct 28, 2011 11:17am
Quoting Blobik
You mean, "I don't think she will reach my SL before hitting 1.30" ? I am not so sure about that, I guess some ranging will occur. Perhaps something that will look similar to a bullish flag, but will be very... imperfect? Something, that will suggest to someone with bullish bias that it is going to go up. And then I will be more eager to short. Today I am doing my best not to enter during last 2 hours. I will have more time on Monday and Tuesday, and I will be able to make my money then. (Or losses, who knows )
I know I know, thats what I was thinking too.
But then I thought about the weekend risk, and to go home risk off..

I dont know if you remember but when we were around 1.40s, everybody was talking about 1.41s being a major "supply" zone..
Im not comfortable referring simple resistances as "supply", and we saw there was nothing, clean run... I was asking where's the supply? supply me please lol

I was long thinking that, if its gonna go down, it has to touch 4230s first. So we got there.. It was a touch and go on M1, and I shorted there then closed thinking it;d bounce back. but nothing. I dont know, but I think we may not get back up there again. B/c it was meant to be a touch and go, thats how corrective trends work acc to my personal view and experience.
  • #6,186
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:27am Oct 28, 2011 11:27am
Quoting drtorque
I know I know, thats what I was thinking too.
But then I thought about the weekend risk, and to go home risk off..

I dont know if you remember but when we were around 1.40s, everybody was talking about 1.41s being a major "supply" zone..
Im not comfortable referring simple resistances as "supply", and we saw there was nothing, clean run... I was asking where's the supply? supply me please lol

I was long thinking that, if its gonna go down, it has to touch 4230s first. So we got there.. It was a touch and go on M1, and I shorted there then...
If it works you'll no longer be called a cowboy, you'll became a bear-boy!
  • #6,187
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:35am Oct 28, 2011 11:35am
It is also possible that the US has stopped the decent. It is an extremely sluggish sideways economy, but not exhibiting the traits of onset of the double dip.

Europe is still in decline without remedy other then bailouts. The periphery countries have weakened in the past year so the debt loads are growing not stabilizing.

The recent Fed lending to the ECB shored up Europe, it was not the other way around. Europe has stuck to the hard currency speech but the ECB did monetize, whatever form it takes, they created money to buy sovereign debt. The only thing they have done in Europe was maintain an interest rate yield, unlike the Fed.

On paper at some point the ECB is supposed to pay back the Fed.
I think we have just experienced USD weakness due to the ECB acting using borrowed funds. Backdoor qe fed style.

The USD took a hit, but the Euro countries now have just had a price increase for product to sell outside Euro based countries. Making it harder to generate earnings to sustain debt payments.

The other side of the coin is that the USD did rally and now has retraced
that shows that any more large unsolvable problems to come out of Europe and the USD will strengthen.

edit: It looked to me as if someone was buying USD/CAD at these lows
today. I did

Also sold some GBP as it looked like a topping pattern on the hourly

Euro very small short
  • #6,188
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:00pm Oct 28, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting foto
The other side of the coin is that the USD did rally and now has retraced
that shows that any more large unsolvable problems to come out of Europe and the USD will strengthen.
Yes, but is another 1000+ pip move possible? My main problem is that I cannot measure how much lending USD to ECB weighs on the market. As a result, I am quite unable to make any decision...

Buuuut... this "extended credit line" ends in January, right? If the EUR will manage to float until then, I think I will be eager to start shorting it heavily.

Why would it manage to keep its high level?

1) Santa Claus rally. Stocks like Chrismas, people like Christmas. Forgiving days. They may even forgive Greece for being about to default, politicians for being unable to solve anything, they may forgive Euro being overvalued and flying like a G6.
2) USD dumping. Dumping of USDs. USD selloff. You get it, don't you? Asians sell it, as they prefer gold, Americans sell it, as they prefer anything else, Europeans sell it as they prefer their yield, Arabs... Oh, well they actually get it for oil. But still, seems thats not enough.
3) Hopium still delivered in large volumes. If you wouldn't read this tread, you would be at least a bit more bullish. Why? Cause seeing people who think the same builds up confidence. And if you would only see the price and no opinions, you would try to draw your s/r higher, make your trendlines sharper. Even if you are trying to be 100% objective, still eventually you get 1% biased. Even trading purely TA will not escape it completely, as you are the one who draws the lines on your chart. And we have shown to each other, that the same trendline can be drawn in a fairly wide range of angles.
4) Defending high EUR as a "risk indie". Perhaps the risk-on is very good for those, who supply/produce/mine commodities, as most of them go up. One important think to note, they are growing slower than EUR. Means some additional EUR-propelling is behind, I don't have idea what, but it just performs better.
5) ... maybe the whole drop was just a coincidence, and Greek failure (and bank falling down, and global crysis) was priced in at 1.40 levels? Yeah, that sounds strange, but, the EUR dropped heaviest when everything (except USD) was falling. Since then it made one more drop... and then this liftoff came.

Point 5) is the one that I don't believe personally. But I am considering other 4 as a serious threat to my bearish mood.
  • #6,189
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:03pm Oct 28, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting foto
It is also possible that the US has stopped the decent. It is an extremely sluggish sideways economy, but not exhibiting the traits of onset of the double dip.

Europe is still in decline without remedy other then bailouts. The periphery countries have weakened in the past year so the debt loads are growing not stabilizing.

The recent Fed lending to the ECB shored up Europe, it was not the other way around. Europe has stuck to the hard currency speech but the ECB did monetize, whatever form it takes, they created money to buy sovereign debt....
Nice One Foto
I am still watching at what level monthly would be close and start long/short next week
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EU Monthly.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #6,190
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:05pm Oct 28, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting Blobik
If it works you'll no longer be called a cowboy, you'll became a bear-boy!
they called me bear in college when I was rowing. but that was physical hahaha

i try to keep no bias, to me thats the essence of trading..
Ed Seykota, I dont care if it's garbanzo beans.. if it has a chart, I can trade it.
Soros, gold @$800, I think it's a bubble, but Im gonna buy it.
  • #6,191
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:11pm Oct 28, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting drtorque
Soros, gold @$800, I think it's a bubble, but Im gonna buy it.
yea but he's got deep pockets
  • #6,192
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:29pm Oct 28, 2011 12:29pm
I guess why I remain bearish on the Euro is that the Bond markets are unraveling there.
Private investors will take abuse for only so long and the Leaders of Europe do not instill much confidence that when push comes to shove debt obligations will be honored.

I went long yesterday the Euro/JPY on the idea that there would be a continuation of the risk rally into Japan. When Tokyo opened there was nothing. It was a dead cat upon arrival.

The press assumes that Asia will buy. Asia actually expects to be paid back with money for the bonds it purchases. Imagine that, a lender expecting to be repaid. Unheard of in the western world, downright antisocialism.

So delusion reigns supreme in Europe. Bravado will not win the day, but substance will. There is little substance and much swagger coming out of Europe.

Yes I cannot stand what Bernanke has done to the USD. But in another year plus there will be new leadership in the US and the old guard gets the boot. Just have to sweat it out until then.

I truly wish that printing money produced growth, Hell, nobody would ever have to work again. But it doesn't happen that way.

So risk rallies produced by financial enginering are to be sold.
But a true risk rally because of economic growth should be bought.
  • #6,193
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:00pm Oct 28, 2011 1:00pm
Have a great weekend everyone.
  • #6,194
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:01pm Oct 28, 2011 1:01pm
So why is the 5 minute charts more important than the 10 minute? Should I ignore the 10 minute? Thanks.

Quoting AaronWard
Absolutely.

Seems like a magic technique at first. But it is not.

Spending a lot of time with the 5 min (ie staring intently for an hour or two a day) will help you develop the following skills:

1. ability to intuitively "feel" a range, a momentum breakout, market manipulation, support, resistance

2. ability to move between time frames. 5 bars from the one minute make up one bar from the 5 min and 6 bars from the 5 make up 1 bar from the 30 min. It seems so obvious, but the ability to move back and forth, seeing one in the other can only...
  • #6,195
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:08pm Oct 28, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting foto
I guess why I remain bearish on the Euro is that the Bond markets are unraveling there.
Private investors will take abuse for only so long and the Leaders of Europe do not instill much confidence that when push comes to shove debt obligations will be honored.

I went long yesterday the Euro/JPY on the idea that there would be a continuation of the risk rally into Japan. When Tokyo opened there was nothing. It was a dead cat upon arrival.

The press assumes that Asia will buy. Asia actually expects to be paid back with money for the bonds it purchases....
Nice,

That's the common thought and the reason behind the epic short squeeze we saw this month (biggest short squeeze ever). Which will still go on because ppl just keep shorting looking at FA. Problem is to be successful you need to look at PA/TA and FA, a little luck helps too

All thats left of the so called market now is a contrarian play where the retailers lose their life savings to the blood sucking bankers and funds which control the market (I'm sure the market movers move the market in a coordinated fashion to take out the most retailer SL's as possible)...

That's been the play for the last 10 years as soon as retailers became "traders". You really have to think opposite, and when the big one hits you may recognize it and realize that this is the big one. THe only way it will fall now is if the system breaks, otherwise the short squeeze will continue because I don't see how avg Joe can think bullish in these circumstances.

Jag
  • #6,196
  • Edited 1:32pm Oct 28, 2011 1:13pm | Edited 1:32pm
I also think that a market is always artificially propped up due to the seriousness of the situation.

I think QE1/QE2 was done when USD was at a high, and then "inflation" kicks it down, offloading the US debt by the amount the dollar falls. That burden is placed on the bond holder (china) who suffers from buying high and selling low.

The USD taught EU to do the same, EU pumped up, now bailed out. Depends if they need more, if they do like Italy, it will be pumped up some more to cover the difference. Once all is good it will return to the true market value, be it 50% of the current rally or whatnot.

Word was EU banks had to buy USD to avoid liquidity freezes which explains the USD rally a few months ago. They now have to raise capital by selling assets in the private market... so likely they will need USD again. As a deal had been talked about they started to sell USD buffer back to the market (the difference is profit now for them), and buying EURO's because of the reason in my last post. They can probably also keep raising the rate of EU to shore up their balance sheet with EURO denominated assets. Problem is the private market will want to trade in USD so I don't see this happening.

Lets see what happens next few weeks.
  • #6,197
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:16pm Oct 28, 2011 1:16pm
One may take a look at the performance of Euro/JPY for the self assured risk on folks.
  • #6,198
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:19pm Oct 28, 2011 1:19pm
So risk rallies produced by financial enginering are to be sold.
But a true risk rally because of economic growth should be bought.

Well to put it simply when the orange is out of juice,DRINK UP!!!!!
  • #6,199
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:25pm Oct 28, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting sidhujag
Problem is to be successful you need to look at PA/TA and FA, a little luck helps too
When I saw it I thought: All you need is a "lucky PATAFA system!"

I fully agree with that, but the three abbreviations look funny together
  • #6,200
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:34pm Oct 28, 2011 1:34pm
Here is a comparison between Thursday US close and Friday US close of Pending orders and open positions for Oanda traders.
Just so you know what retail traders are betting on.
Typically the majority of retail traders are wrong so I would go contrary to what I see on these charts.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oanda-before.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: oanda-after.jpg Size: 87 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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