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  • #701
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:56am Oct 26, 2011 7:56am
Quote
Would you consider the 30 min set-up as a standard TT and thus requires additional confluence? And would placing the initial SL above the last swing high of 0.8110 be too conservative?

Yes it is a standard TT setup i.e. it has a good S/R with additional confluence. Personally I think TT setups should be managed mostly in the same way i.e. SL goes where the setup is invalidated - this causes problems for some people cos they don't like to have small stops or can't accept a quick losing trade - but these people have mindset issues and most of the time they don't even know it.

Quote
Yup, all these make perfect sense. BTW, do you mind telling where you had your initial SL on this trade?

0.9965
  • #702
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:02am Oct 26, 2011 9:02am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes it is a standard TT setup i.e. it has a good S/R with additional confluence. Personally I think TT setups should be managed mostly in the same way i.e. SL goes where the setup is invalidated...
So would an initial SL slightly above the left shoulder high (see arrow on chart) around 0.8090 be your preference?

Quoting lovejoy80
... - this causes problems for some people cos they don't like to have small stops or can't accept a quick losing trade - but these people have mindset issues and most of the time they don't even know it.
I love small stops as long as it's a winner but have to admit that sometimes I get cold feet too. So please elaborate what kind of mindset issues you are referring to.

Quoting lovejoy80
0.9965
Now this is a really small stop, especially after your having mentioned a wide S/R and all. And worse I could not figure out how you came to it. Would appreciate if you could share some wisdom here too.

Thank you.
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  • #703
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:48am Oct 26, 2011 10:48am
Quote
So would an initial SL slightly above the left shoulder high (see arrow on chart) around 0.8090 be your preference?

Yes - as if price moves above here then your reasoning for your entry has now gone so it's no longer a trade you want to be in - If price moved above this area then it's more likely to be moving further up.




Quote
I love small stops as long as it's a winner but have to admit that sometimes I get cold feet too. So please elaborate what kind of mindset issues you are referring to.

If you struggle to accept a loss or struggle to put a SL where it should be put (if that results in a small SL) then you are going against logical reasoning and what is causing this - your own mind.

Quote
Now this is a really small stop, especially after your having mentioned a wide S/R and all. And worse I could not figure out how you came to it. Would appreciate if you could share some wisdom here too.

No it's not a small stop on this pair - it's about 75 pips which is pretty large for a TT on this pair. Compare this to a typical TT I took today which had a SL of 27 pips below my entry.

The reasoning for the SL on the positional trade was because I wanted my SL below the lows marked.
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  • #704
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:00am Oct 27, 2011 11:00am
Didn't quite expect these trades to shoot up like they have , but it was clear that they were winding up for a long breakout.
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  • #705
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:12am Oct 27, 2011 11:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
Didn't quite expect these trades to shoot up like they have , but it was clear that they were winding up for a long breakout.
hi LJ..
nice one..
but can u explain why buy..price could hav moved anywhere no?
can u explain the reason why u longed it..?
i did not get it
  • #706
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:17am Oct 27, 2011 11:17am
One on the watch list if the market calms itself down!
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  • #707
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:45pm Oct 27, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
hi LJ..
nice one..
but can u explain why buy..price could hav moved anywhere no?
can u explain the reason why u longed it..?
i did not get it
If you take a look @ EJ first you'll see that price has been constrained by the falling TL and the 105 support level i.e. a wedge formation. We are in a down-trend but 4 times price hits the 105 level and each time it is strong rejected. If the down-trend was strong then this level should not have offered such strong support i.e. after 2-3 attempted max price should have broken it.

So I would conclude that the bulls are slowly overcoming the bears on this pair and that a confirmed break of the falling TL was going to occur...we then had price action to confirm that price was going to break this 'wedge' long.

It's the same story on all the Yen majors I look at - price stuck in a range with constant rejections of support and daily PA to provide that added confluence that the Yen pairs were going to break upwards.

With AJ price had broken the falling TL and had returned to test it and the 78.40 level as support (this is where I would have taken a no brainer TT if I'd been around) and formed a daily pin closing above a further S/R area - a good sign price was heading higher from here.
  • #708
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:58am Oct 28, 2011 7:58am
Quoting lovejoy80
Didn't quite expect these trades to shoot up like they have , but it was clear that they were winding up for a long breakout.
Taken some profit on these trades now and will look to add more next week @ 80 on AJ and 106.50 on EJ.
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  • #709
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:14am Oct 28, 2011 8:14am
Took final set of trades for the week last night on AU, GU, UC.
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  • #710
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:16am Oct 28, 2011 8:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
Took final set of trades for the week last night on AU, GU, UC.
I cut GU earlier near BE, took some profit on UC and AU and now targeting 1.05 in AU for a stop and reverse and parity on UC.

Been a testing week (and month) this week with some frustrating losses, but stick to your plan and keep the emotions in check and the winners will follow.
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  • #711
  • Oct 29, 2011 6:06am Oct 29, 2011 6:06am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes - as if price moves above here then your reasoning for your entry has now gone so it's no longer a trade you want to be in - If price moved above this area then it's more likely to be moving further up.
On this hourly NZD/USD set-up, what made you so sure that it would end up as a H&S instead of a DT? Don't you think it has an equal or perhaps higher chance of forming a DT given that the previous high tested a daily (higher t/f) S/R level? It follows then that if it made a DT then an SL above the previous high would be valid, would it not?

Quoting lovejoy80
If you struggle to accept a loss or struggle to put a SL where it should be put (if that results in a small SL) then you are going against logical reasoning and what is causing this - your own mind.
Yes, you pointed out a very good point there - we get tricked by our mind more often than we know.

Quoting lovejoy80
No it's not a small stop on this pair - it's about 75 pips which is pretty large for a TT on this pair. The reasoning for the SL on the positional trade was because I wanted my SL below the lows marked.
Your lows of around 0.9975 are my S/R zone lows so that's why I didn't use it for SL placement. Please correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is to look for a wick that tests or spikes through the S/R zones and use that to determine SL. Based on this, the 0.9975 lows don't seem to qualify whereas the daily bar low around 0.9930 back in April should be a better candidate (hence my SL). But I might be missing something here so would really appreciate your explanation.

Quoting lovejoy80
Compare this to a typical TT I took today which had a SL of 27 pips below my entry
That set-up would certainly be off my radar. Yes, I can see the hourly S/R levels but not one that would really jump out at or excite me for a high-probability trade. Yet, on the contrary, it was worth at least 1.5R. Again, I must have missed something. Was it the multiple hourly bar lows and highs? Please kindly enlighten me.

Thank you.
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  • #712
  • Oct 29, 2011 8:05am Oct 29, 2011 8:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
Took final set of trades for the week last night on AU, GU, UC.
Hi, LJ. Would you skip the USD/CAD long if there were no 61.8% fib & RN confluence? Imo the S/R levels don't look really clean.

It's a shame the GBP/USD short didn't work out despite the strong confluence. Could you please advise what made you exit near BE and not wait for it to test the FLS?

Thank you.
  • #713
  • Oct 30, 2011 12:55pm Oct 30, 2011 12:55pm
Quote
On this hourly NZD/USD set-up, what made you so sure that it would end up as a H&S instead of a DT? Don't you think it has an equal or perhaps higher chance of forming a DT given that the previous high tested a daily (higher t/f) S/R level? It follows then that if it made a DT then an SL above the previous high would be valid, would it not?

See chart attached below


Quote
Your lows of around 0.9975 are my S/R zone lows so that's why I didn't use it for SL placement. Please correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is to look for a wick that tests or spikes through the S/R zones and use that to determine SL. Based on this, the 0.9975 lows don't seem to qualify whereas the daily bar low around 0.9930 back in April should be a better candidate (hence my SL). But I might be missing something here so would really appreciate your explanation.

Yes the area you highlighted would have been the safest area to place your SL below. However for me, I wanted to be more aggressive and actually split the area into two zones due to how many times the 0.9975 area had provided support in the past. There are often multiple places to place the SL, ranging from the most conservative to a more aggressive approach.


Quote
That set-up would certainly be off my radar. Yes, I can see the hourly S/R levels but not one that would really jump out at or excite me for a high-probability trade. Yet, on the contrary, it was worth at least 1.5R. Again, I must have missed something. Was it the multiple hourly bar lows and highs? Please kindly enlighten me.

See attached charts.
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  • #714
  • Oct 30, 2011 12:59pm Oct 30, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting supra
Hi, LJ. Would you skip the USD/CAD long if there were no 61.8% fib & RN confluence? Imo the S/R levels don't look really clean.

It's a shame the GBP/USD short didn't work out despite the strong confluence. Could you please advise what made you exit near BE and not wait for it to test the FLS?

Thank you.
Yes I would skip it without the fib confluence - generally for a confluence based TT I require an S/R + fibs as a minimum.

I exited because the market clearly had very little momentum after the recent large moves and price had not moved much after a fair few hours - this is a reason I will use to exit a trade - I prefer my TT's to not hang around and to move with high momentum, if there is clearly no momentum in the market and price is hovering around my entry then I will often cut the trade.

Plus, it's a Friday and I wouldn't want to hold this over the weekend.
  • #715
  • Oct 30, 2011 8:48pm Oct 30, 2011 8:48pm
I entered Long at GBPAUD when it closed above the BRN of 1.5 - now heading towards the FTA - trade at BE. I will see how it act around 1.52 - to add further position.

I am a noob therefore any suggestion / comment is always appreciated.
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Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #716
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:06pm Oct 30, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Taken some profit on these trades now and will look to add more next week @ 80 on AJ and 106.50 on EJ.
October had been a tough month for me, but I knew my friends at the BOJ would do the sensible thing

It's times like this I don't mind being woken up @ 02.30am by my Price Alerts!

A few of us on the Skype group pre-empted this BOJ move for over a week now and had formulated a trading plan accordingly.

Sometimes in trading the obvious setups are the ones where you just use your common sense - that's where looking at the broader picture and having an understanding of how the markets work both technically and fundamentally will always be the most efficient trading strategy IMO.
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  • #717
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:08pm Oct 30, 2011 10:08pm
I had 3 positions on one of my main Oanda accounts. Time for a well earned break I feel
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  • #718
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:38pm Oct 30, 2011 11:38pm
Quoting prftablefool
I entered Long at GBPAUD when it closed above the BRN of 1.5 - now heading towards the FTA - trade at BE. I will see how it act around 1.52 - to add further position.

I am a noob therefore any suggestion / comment is always appreciated.
You targets look good to me, but I'm struggling to see a reason to buy the pair just because it closed above 1.5? I'd expect a reaction at the 1.5240 area as it's a very clear FTB setup.
  • #719
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:56am Oct 31, 2011 2:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
I had 3 positions on one of my main Oanda accounts. Time for a well earned break I feel
Congrats my friend ... good planning. BTW... it was pretty smart of BOJ to intervene on 31st, painting some strong buob on monthly tf.
  • #720
  • Oct 31, 2011 8:19am Oct 31, 2011 8:19am
Thank you for your explanations, LJ. Your reply on the NZD/USD set-up makes me realize that I may be over-analyzing things when I should have just taken the good probability set-ups and let the numbers work themselves out given the odds while at the same time using good risk management to protect against those that don't work.

Great trades you have there on a Monday!

I have been trying to figure out the rationale for your USD/CAD long and AUD/USD short but nothing concrete comes to mind. Would appreciate if you could share your thoughts. Thank you.
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