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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,041
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:13am Oct 28, 2011 6:13am
Quoting jeff_b
@PT: what'd you think about G/U? I'm in deep water with that one. Any advice? As for E/U, I'm thinking of waiting for clear signs of E/U and goes with the trend, still biased with going short though.
equity/capital percentage loss open right now is how much?
where is ur position based on quotes?

ill try and show some guides from there.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,042
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:19am Oct 28, 2011 6:19am
2 short lots, each -100 pips. Time to cut losses? I have another lot short with +20 pips. Equity can take at least 1000 pips lost. I'm thinking of holding positions and see what's gonna happen.
  • #6,043
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:21am Oct 28, 2011 6:21am
Quoting jeff_b
@PT: what'd you think about G/U? I'm in deep water with that one. Any advice? As for E/U, I'm thinking of waiting for clear signs of E/U and goes with the trend, still biased with going short though.
I will start searching for going short not early than E/U will rise up t 1.4240 (yesterday hight)
  • #6,044
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:31am Oct 28, 2011 6:31am
Quoting jeff_b
2 short lots, each -100 pips. Time to cut losses? I have another lot short with +20 pips. Equity can take at least 1000 pips lost. I'm thinking of holding positions and see what's gonna happen.
Jeff,

E/U and G/U usually move in tandem because the bulk of the move is related to the USD.
So short on E/U generally means short on G/U and most other USD related pairs.

100 pips underwater is not a huge problem. However, I don't believe the market is ready to go short just yet. We will have to see what NY does.

If you are going to short today, I would wait until we bang against resistance 1.4250 and 1.4380 are the next in line. 1.4250 is medium strength and should probably be enough to keep the price capped. However, if it breaks today 1.4380 is very strong and it will be a miracle for the bulls to push through it.

With today's dismal French spending report followed by a dismal Italian bond auction, the markets have not rallied, but the bears are not participating yet because they have yet to recover from yesterday's shock.

If we go down from here without re testing resistance, then that's all the better for your positions as you take profit on them without risking more capital.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,045
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:33am Oct 28, 2011 6:33am
0.5% loss floating currently = total running p/l.

3 trades. same ones.

i will go to jiujitsu in one hour, and i have enough trust that this would turn out fine
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,046
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:39am Oct 28, 2011 6:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
Jeff,

E/U and G/U usually move in tandem because the bulk of the move is related to the USD.
So short on E/U generally means short on G/U and most other USD related pairs.

100 pips underwater is not a huge problem. However, I don't believe the market is ready to go short just yet. We will have to see what NY does.

If you are going to short today, I would wait until we bang against resistance 1.4250 and 1.4380 are the next in line. 1.4250 is medium strength and should probably be enough to keep the price capped. However, if it breaks today 1.4380...
we are mid-saturn in even smaller increments and mid on moon as well on the 1st eighths so this is 1st 16th degrree on saturn, and 1st eighth on moon cycle.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,047
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:47am Oct 28, 2011 6:47am
PT

How long has risk on/risk off been the central feature of market movements. It really seems very unnatural to me that everything moves together.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,048
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:48am Oct 28, 2011 6:48am
Quoting AaronWard
PT

How long has risk on/risk off been the central feature of market movements. It really seems very unnatural to me that everything moves together.
Hey Aaron

Are you still dancing?

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #6,049
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:49am Oct 28, 2011 6:49am
Fitch says 50% Greek bond haircut would be a default event

European shares turn negative; Italian stocks fall

European shares turned negative on Friday morning, giving up a little of the strong gains of the previous session, and with Italian stocks lower after a bond auction.

At 1031 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 0.2 percent at 1,017.70 points, after earlier being as high as 1,028.48.

The Italian benchmark was down 2 percent after demand at a bond auction was weak.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,050
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:49am Oct 28, 2011 6:49am
Quoting AaronWard
PT

How long has risk on/risk off been the central feature of market movements. It really seems very unnatural to me that everything moves together.
Since 2008
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,051
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:56am Oct 28, 2011 6:56am
moon cycle.. .saturn cycle...
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,052
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:59am Oct 28, 2011 6:59am
China Could Save the Eurozone, but at What Cost?

Following the E.U. news of an initial plan to resolve the Eurozone crisis, the relief felt in the world’s financial markets was almost palpable. The objective of the plan that pertains to the shoring up of the European Financial Stability Facility includes, among other things, creating a special purpose vehicle to attract and obtain private funding that would leverage the fund well beyond its original value.

More pipe dreams? Or a deal with the devil?
China will not invest a single penny in any such SPIV. They may invest in specific Euro countries where they will be in a position to deal directly with those nation's governments. Dealing with the EC will be too risky for them to consider, unless they receive "market economy" status as an incentive. Even so, I am sure the deal will have conditions that would be detrimental to the Euro Zone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,053
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:05am Oct 28, 2011 7:05am
Thanks for the advice. For E/U pair, after the rally yesterday, now I believe anything is possible. Who knows? Maybe when China agrees to bail out Eu, E/U goes up by several hundred pips again. Nothing's sure.


Quoting PipTrapper
Jeff,

E/U and G/U usually move in tandem because the bulk of the move is related to the USD.
So short on E/U generally means short on G/U and most other USD related pairs.

100 pips underwater is not a huge problem. However, I don't believe the market is ready to go short just yet. We will have to see what NY does.

If you are going to short today, I would wait until we bang against resistance 1.4250 and 1.4380 are the next in line. 1.4250 is medium strength and should probably be enough to keep the price capped. However, if it breaks today 1.4380...
  • #6,054
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:05am Oct 28, 2011 7:05am
Futures are down do you think this might be a risk off day? Should i consider a short at 1.42?
  • #6,055
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:05am Oct 28, 2011 7:05am
Quoting mla
Hey Aaron

Are you still dancing?

mla
Absolutely.

Seems like a magic technique at first. But it is not.

Spending a lot of time with the 5 min (ie staring intently for an hour or two a day) will help you develop the following skills:

1. ability to intuitively "feel" a range, a momentum breakout, market manipulation, support, resistance

2. ability to move between time frames. 5 bars from the one minute make up one bar from the 5 min and 6 bars from the 5 make up 1 bar from the 30 min. It seems so obvious, but the ability to move back and forth, seeing one in the other can only be developed by watching the 5 min form

3. pattern recognition... certain patterns and set-ups show up on all charts, and by spending a lot of time on the 5 min you will start to intuitively sense (the gestault sense of "a ha") the different patterns

4. patience--to be able to NOT trade is probably far more important than the ability to trade... witness PT being basically unscathed through a 1100 pip adverse movement.

In short, trading is a combination of right brain and left brain. Candle stick staring (aka dancing with the market) is the best way to train the right brain.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,056
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:06am Oct 28, 2011 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
China Could Save the Eurozone, but at What Cost?

[i][u]Following the E.U. news of an initial plan to resolve the Eurozone crisis, the relief felt in the world’s financial markets was almost palpable. The objective of the plan that pertains to the shoring up of the European Financial Stability Facility includes, among other things, creating a special purpose vehicle to attract and obtain private funding that would leverage the fund well beyond its original...
great update and explanation. chinese do not invest or help if they do not see potential on returns. they are business bound and euro is hellbound for now for business. i think the chinese will help other countries instead.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,057
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:11am Oct 28, 2011 7:11am
Quoting bumapatria
moon cycle.. .saturn cycle...
any more astrology on your charts and I will never speak to you again
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,058
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:11am Oct 28, 2011 7:11am
Quoting AaronWard
Absolutely.

Seems like a magic technique at first. But it is not.

Spending a lot of time with the 5 min (ie staring intently for an hour or two a day) will help you develop the following skills:

1. ability to intuitively "feel" a range, a momentum breakout, market manipulation, support, resistance

2. ability to move between time frames. 5 bars from the one minute make up one bar from the 5 min and 6 bars from the 5 make up 1 bar from the 30 min. It seems so obvious, but the ability to move back and forth, seeing one in the other can...
right brain is the emotional side of our brain in which decisions will be made based on emotion, and what we feel. revenge trading, impulsive buys and sells, change of direction trades, overtrading are few examples to the harms the right can do to you. it also has the positivity and the human side of ourselves. being able to feel sorry, admit a mistake, learn that is all on the right. left brain is the logical side. when one is in stress or fear, the left brain switches off, all processes done on the right. that is why controlling the flow of thoughts and brain processes must be balanced between both left and right brain.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,059
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:13am Oct 28, 2011 7:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Absolutely.

Seems like a magic technique at first. But it is not.

Spending a lot of time with the 5 min (ie staring intently for an hour or two a day) will help you develop the following skills:

1. ability to intuitively "feel" a range, a momentum breakout, market manipulation, support, resistance

2. ability to move between time frames. 5 bars from the one minute make up one bar from the 5 min and 6 bars from the 5 make up 1 bar from the 30 min. It seems so obvious, but the ability to move back and forth, seeing one in the other...
Have you heard of Al Brooks?
Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar
The Technical Analysis of price action for the serious trader.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #6,060
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:16am Oct 28, 2011 7:16am
Quoting mla
Have you heard of Al Brooks?
Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar
The Technical Analysis of price action for the serious trader.

mla
another great source! downloading pdf now.

im a warez fan. torrents too

hehehehe
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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