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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,681
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:36am Oct 28, 2011 5:36am
Quoting SIgurs
If I may intervene ;-)

The strong Yen on the other hand makes Euro an US products way cheaper for Japanese ... BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Louis Vuitton, etc etc..... thus boosting Us and Euro exports to Japan.

It's, as always, a two edged sword.
If I may interupt
Japan must be oriented prior export rather than import,if there is no smooth business going how can these Japanese can bought these BMW,Mercedes and others? Trade Balance

Before I though stronger currency would be good for a country until am step in FX Market and learn that its very harmful for export country and how the country like China,Korea and Japan Like their currency weakening badly
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,682
  • Oct 28, 2011 5:44am Oct 28, 2011 5:44am
Quoting FXMindset
"Line Sand"...Sorry,I dont quite understand about that part? You mean secret weapon mate or?

Talk about Korean am believe they are already surpass Japanese products as we can see in many ways and places,slowly or even sooner the next asia high technology might be Korea,No Japan anymore
Line in the sand........I mean there will be a place on the charts where Japan can no longer stand the pain.....maybe 74, maybe 71.....who knows?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,683
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:04am Oct 28, 2011 6:04am
Quoting realjumper
Line in the sand........I mean there will be a place on the charts where Japan can no longer stand the pain.....maybe 74, maybe 71.....who knows?
Thanks For the explanation mate
Btw,May I know how do you know that Japan have this such kind of power/Money again after wasted so many money on previous intervention till now


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,684
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:10am Oct 28, 2011 6:10am
Quoting erden
I think if prints 73.80 they will intervene but is it possible to reach 73.80 tonight.
Sometimes UJ is very slow and boring pair but sometimes its very exciting and surprisingly pair
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,685
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:12am Oct 28, 2011 6:12am
Quoting FXMindset
Thanks For the explanation mate
Btw,May I know how do you know that Japan have this such kind of power/Money again after wasted so many money on previous intervention till now


Thanks
It's common knowledge on most related website.....like this one
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,686
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:16am Oct 28, 2011 6:16am
Quoting realjumper
It's common knowledge on most related website.....like this one
Thanks a lot sweety
Btw the market seem wont be stop to test new lower until Japan release their last samurai

However,I've read the link you are given,How many pips do you estimate roughly that can boost up this pair with 15 trillion yen
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,687
  • Edited 6:57am Oct 28, 2011 6:26am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting FXMindset
Thanks a lot sweety
Btw the market seem wont be stop to test new lower until Japan release their last samurai

However,I've read the link you are given,How many pips do you estimate roughly that can boost up this pair with 15 trillion yen
Well they will never throw the entire amount at the market all in one go, but this is what I found from a very quick search:

"The Bank of Japan sold 692.5 billion yen ($8.8 billion) on March 18, when it led a coordinated effort with Group of Seven nations to counter a jump in the yen after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Last September, Japan unilaterally sold 2.12 trillion yen."

If you search google you'll find the amounts of Yen sold and the dates, then you can see the results on your charts. I did post some information on this subject a month or two back......I think me and fosking were seeking the same information....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,688
  • Edited 6:53am Oct 28, 2011 6:36am | Edited 6:53am
Quoting realjumper
Well they will never throw the entire amount at the market all in one go, but this is what I found from a very quick search:

"The Bank of Japan sold 692.5 billion yen ($8.8 billion) on March 18, when it led a coordinated effort with Group of Seven nations to counter a jump in the yen after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Last September, Japan unilaterally sold 2.12 trillion yen."

If you search google you'll find the amounts of Yen sold and the dates, then you can see the results on your charts. I did post some information on this...
I am remember the coordinate Intervention before the other central bank seem not doing so much as we can see in the movement directly before

now 15 trillion vs 2.12 trillion - Interesting - 7 times larger
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,689
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:50am Oct 28, 2011 6:50am
Quoting FXMindset
I am remember the coordinate Intervention before the other central not doing so much as we can see in the movement directly before

now 15 trillion vs 2.12 trillion - Interesting - 7 times larger
As I read it, they added 15 trillion !
  • #28,690
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:56am Oct 28, 2011 6:56am
Quoting SIgurs
As I read it, they added 15 trillion !
That's correct......but it gives you some idea of the amount of money they have put aside to tackle this problem with.......yet they won't use it!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,691
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:05am Oct 28, 2011 7:05am
Quoting realjumper
That's correct......but it gives you some idea of the amount of money they have put aside to tackle this problem with.......yet they won't use it!
I think part of the objective of the fund is to 'scare off' speculators who intend to appreciate JPY. Psy war just like their media intervention threat nowadays.
I mean what I say, I say what I mean
  • #28,692
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:08am Oct 28, 2011 7:08am
why 73.80? is it final bottom?
  • #28,693
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:09am Oct 28, 2011 7:09am
So anybody now how much swiss spend to peg their currency before till now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,694
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:10am Oct 28, 2011 7:10am
Quoting Neosaladin
I think part of the objective of the fund is to 'scare off' speculators who intend to appreciate JPY. Psy war just like their media intervention threat nowadays.

Japan has always had an 'Intervention fund'.......since the days of the Kobe earthquake or perhaps even earlier. The intervention immediately after the Kobe earthquake was immensely successful.......it turned the trend. They haven't been so effective this time around though because the economic world is a different place now.

Personally I would like to see it hit 75.00 today.....and stay there at market close. That might make for an interesting market open next week!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,695
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:11am Oct 28, 2011 7:11am
Quoting SIgurs
As I read it, they added 15 trillion !
I tried injected and added your confidence well and I am hope you keep this thread alive and active by keep LOL Jap action
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,696
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:14am Oct 28, 2011 7:14am
Quoting realjumper
Japan has always had an 'Intervention fund'.......since the days of the Kobe earthquake or perhaps even earlier. The intervention immediately after the Kobe earthquake was immensely successful.......it turned the trend. They haven't been so effective this time around though because the economic world is a different place now.

Personally I would like to see it hit 75.00 today.....and stay there at market close. That might make for an interesting market open next week!!!
Do you have any longterm chart on your view regarding this pair? Would like to see that

Personally,I am looking 73.80/73.90 must be test based on my monthly chart - next month migh be different story/level again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,697
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:16am Oct 28, 2011 7:16am
Quoting Neosaladin
I think part of the objective of the fund is to 'scare off' speculators who intend to appreciate JPY. Psy war just like their media intervention threat nowadays.
Absolutely true, but the lifespan of rethoric is not very long. Use it too long and markets will take you for a walk in the park.

Trading pattern last few days:
We see new lows forming during NY hours, but towards to NY close price moves up as fear for intervention is still present. Once European markets open price slowly drops as markets don't expect intervention during EU/NY trading hours. As i've said, fear for intervention is still present but it's decreasing as price makes lower highs towards NY hours. If they remain expressing their concerns verbally only, we'll see a steep drop sooner rather than later.
  • #28,698
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:17am Oct 28, 2011 7:17am
Quoting FXMindset
Do you have any longterm chart on your view regarding this pair? Would like to see that

Personally,I am looking 73.80/73.90 must be test based on my monthly chart - next month migh be different story/level again
No, I don't have a long term chart view of this pair.....I need to see the trend turn, and then consider the options
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #28,699
  • Oct 28, 2011 7:37am Oct 28, 2011 7:37am
Quoting SIgurs
Absolutely true, but the lifespan of rethoric is not very long. Use it too long and markets will take you for a walk in the park.

Trading pattern last few days:
We see new lows forming during NY hours, but towards to NY close price moves up as fear for intervention is still present. Once European markets open price slowly drops as markets don't expect intervention during EU/NY trading hours. As i've said, fear for intervention is still present but it's decreasing as price makes lower highs towards NY hours. If they remain expressing their concerns...
as we can see previously till now,the intervention always happened in the morning when Tokyo Market Open

Mid Drop always happened at London Session

and Big Drop always happened at US Session

The reason is simple : Those Jap authories are sleeping and busy with their family time During US Session

and now the Naughty Big Boys has come back again to test another new low
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,700
  • Oct 28, 2011 8:00am Oct 28, 2011 8:00am
Quoting FXMindset
as we can see previously till now,the intervention always happened in the morning when Tokyo Market Open

Mid Drop always happened at London Session

and Big Drop always happened at US Session

The reason is simple : Those Jap authories are sleeping and busy with their family time During US Session

and now the Naughty Big Boys has come back again to test another new low
Yes, but the new low always just 5-10 pips below the last low, which makes scalper got trapped.
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