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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,961
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:00am Oct 28, 2011 2:00am
Quoting bumapatria
details.. sorry PT, truth is harsh sometimes, and all of it sux doesnt it?
its even better if this comes out of France. giants of europe falling is a greater chance of the big drop we expect.
Well they don't have to fall. They just have to show economic slowdown or slight contraction compared to the US
So since I am already convinced the big EZ countries will slow down, they are not a concern for me. What is a concern now is US. Will they show promise?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,962
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:05am Oct 28, 2011 2:05am
Today's risk event --> --Friday, Oct. 28: Italian bond auction.
Yield is currently at a dangerous high of 5.9%
If ECB does not participate today, then the numbers may be dismal.
What we have to look for is the Bid-To-Cover ratio (anything at or below 2.0 is bad) and the yield (anything at or above 6.0 is really bad)
If we get bad results, that may be Euro negative.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,963
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:09am Oct 28, 2011 2:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well they don't have to fall. They just have to show economic slowdown or slight contraction compared to the US
So since I am already convinced the big EZ countries will slow down, they are not a concern for me. What is a concern now is US. Will they show promise?
yeah true. it was just figure of speech the falling thing. saturn synodic cycle divided into smaller fragments represent today or tommorow as the 2nd eighth of the current cycle.
i dont think they work as well on weekends but lets see
blue dotted dash lines are the smaller cycles on octuplets rather than one full period or the pink lines' quarterly periods of the period.


shorts loaded
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,964
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:10am Oct 28, 2011 2:10am
Well, home sales were poor... And we had good US data when we had good EU data, so there may come some bad US data as well...
  • #5,965
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:13am Oct 28, 2011 2:13am
More medium impact US data coming out today as follows, but the big one to watch will be the Italian bond auction..

All times at CEST (subtract 6 hours for NY time)

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,966
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:14am Oct 28, 2011 2:14am
PT,

Looking at the monthly charts, the OCT08 mess has an eerie resemblance to this Oct time period. Big drop pre Oct, huge move back up and an equal drop. Each time period with a 10,000 pip move more or less. See any possible similarities?

Isn't this when the buy the rumor sell the news theory is a perfect scenario?

The markets broke 11,900 today, Dollar dipped below 200 dma and the Euro did its thing. All I know is I don't by that stocks will move much more, there isn't enough good fundamentals to support it. Same with the Euro...only double edge sword is the dollar might get hurt more with all the additional QE talk from the Fed.

Bottom line is...my gut tells me this is the buy the rumor. Cause the news really isn't positive for the Euro long term. Its propoganda no less.
  • #5,967
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:16am Oct 28, 2011 2:16am
even better. lets see if they come out positive.
i am sorry for previous moon chart, it was 29 instead of averagin it to 30 periods. here is a revised chart with mid-points.

today or tomorow is the day too with the moon


whos bull? whos bear?

i am bear so far. as long as that us data shows usd strength ive got all signals so far, and if no black swan hits im bearish biased.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,968
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:20am Oct 28, 2011 2:20am
Quoting chodd22
PT,

Looking at the monthly charts, the OCT08 mess has an eerie resemblance to this Oct time period. Big drop pre Oct, huge move back up and an equal drop. Each time period with a 10,000 pip move more or less. See any possible similarities?

Isn't this when the buy the rumor sell the news theory is a perfect scenario?

The markets broke 11,900 today, Dollar dipped below 200 dma and the Euro did its thing. All I know is I don't by that stocks will move much more, there isn't enough good fundamentals to support it. Same with the Euro...only...
I fully agree with your view Chodd.
We just have to wait and see what happens.
I am betting on a Euro slide but we need a catalyst to get us there.
Like dismal Italian bond auction results and a glimmer of hope from the US.
Remember first week of November is huge. We have ECB rate statement, NFP, G20 Summit and loads of other econ data.
I no longer see a bearish monthly candle for October, but I now do see one for November.
Nothing in this business moves in a straight line.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,969
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:22am Oct 28, 2011 2:22am
and guess where i set up the cycle periods from.

that 2008 crash.





-2% down.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,970
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:29am Oct 28, 2011 2:29am
Guys, lets play with the media and rumor mill and make a few more 100 pips with a few more bumps here and there, but bottom line...

you put one P.O.S. EURO next to another P.O.S. USD, guess who the WORLD picks...that latter P.O.S. Which spells bad news for mister EURO.

Its really pretty sad when globally the talk is that the USD will be somewhat of a safe haven as the EURO continues to erode...which all the PIIGS did today folks was throw gasoline on their 1 trillion pile. Come on, leveraging will help them get out of what leveraging got them into. You can't make this shiz up man!

Sell the news folks...sooner or later...just be patient, the rumor needs to wear off.
  • #5,971
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:37am Oct 28, 2011 2:37am
It is good to see the EZ leaders come together and actually agree on something.
The fact that Germany is shouldering the bulk of the financial responsibility is also a good sign and a show of confidence to the markets.

However, I am still very skeptical as there is still a lack of financial resources to shore up the eventual failure of periphery states such as Italy and Spain.

It is a pipe dream to expect China or Japan to come to the rescue until such time as we see EZ member states showing signs of growth and fiscal austerity at the same time. A difficult endeavor at the best of times.

The Euro is over valued and not supported by current economic fundamentals. Yes a lower Euro will be somewhat inflationary for the EZ, but it will give the economy a chance to grow.

It is now time for the ECB to participate by lowering the rate to 1% again. This is no time for half-measures and hopium. The EZ future is at stake.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,972
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:44am Oct 28, 2011 2:44am
Europe Looks to IMF, China for Aid

Best of Luck...

European officials are studying the potential for an International Monetary Fund channel for money for their enlarged rescue fund, as China considers contributing to ending the area’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The European Financial Stability Facility may explore setting up a special purpose vehicle with the IMF, Klaus Regling, the EFSF’s chief executive officer, said at a briefing in Beijing today. Separately, Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said that while an investment by his nation is “under discussion,” China needs more detail of what is planned.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,973
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:45am Oct 28, 2011 2:45am
Another item for your fundamental list...and a biggie on my calendar.

The socalled US appointed super committee better agree by 1st week of Nov otherwise trillions in automatic spending cuts kick in.

Depending on that outcome its possible that the US could face another downgrade by all the reporting agencies.

  • #5,974
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:47am Oct 28, 2011 2:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is good to see the EZ leaders come together and actually agree on something.
The fact that Germany is shouldering the bulk of the financial responsibility is also a good sign and a show of confidence to the markets.

However, I am still very skeptical as there is still a lack of financial resources to shore up the eventual failure of periphery states such as Italy and Spain.

It is a pipe dream to expect China or Japan to come to the rescue until such time as we see EZ member states showing signs of growth and fiscal austerity at the same time....
Lets send this to the ECB, so they know what to do
  • #5,975
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:48am Oct 28, 2011 2:48am
Piptrapper has been a great asset and friend to all of us thanks PT for all the fundies update and more importantly the xplanation

talking the supply and demand of basic macroeconomics, is that people invest or long in a currency if they see potential growth from big-named people's speeches and or decisions they make. A supply comes when the demand is dying out, when growth is more likely on the opposite side, and demand switches to the other. like a seesaw. USD demand dropped yesterday because people saw a LARGER potential growth from the europe with yesterday's major releases, while the US was just releasing numbers, that dont show AS MUCH potential growth than the EZ.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,976
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:51am Oct 28, 2011 2:51am
Quoting The Fool
not a big bang, more like a long drawn out sucking sound.

And its a big world. USA has ~5% of world population. If std of living and hyperconsumption habits ease in USA maybe China, Brazil, India can take up some slack.
Really, that is pretty much what we have been hearing for the last 6-7 years. typically when there is a change of guard... one world order is replaced by another... there are two processes. The first is a slide. The second is an earthquake. We have had a lot of the first and a couple of the second.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,977
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:54am Oct 28, 2011 2:54am
I thought yesterday might have fixed a few of the bears...

Nope. they just say... hibernate ntil the right weather. Bear spring is on the way... the colder it gets only tells us how much warmer it is going to be...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,978
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:54am Oct 28, 2011 2:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Another poster here once said that having a wife is like trading without a stop loss. I didn't think he meant it literally

Anyway, jokes aside, I'm sorry for your loss (well it's not a loss till you close the position). I hope it's a small position.
Wife said that the Euro hasn't moved much so far looks like its in shock, just like her
By our actions we are known
  • #5,979
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:59am Oct 28, 2011 2:59am
Quoting nyfx718
Looks like you hit on all the targets. So where do you see this pulling back to?
Honestly? Don't know. I stopped trading my opinions and what ifs a long time ago. I found they never worked out me, and kept me biased to one direction and one way of thinking.

Just prepared to watch price. See what it does and where it gets to. Then see if a setup presents itself.
  • #5,980
  • Oct 28, 2011 3:07am Oct 28, 2011 3:07am
Quoting AaronWard
I thought yesterday might have fixed a few of the bears...

Nope. they just say... hibernate ntil the right weather. Bear spring is on the way... the colder it gets only tells us how much warmer it is going to be...
Here is my sentiment in a picture... and I will stick to it until the economic data tells me otherwise.

The Euro is set for some ground breaking moves...
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