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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,941
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:38am Oct 28, 2011 12:38am
Quoting AaronWard
But the catch is that if the American economy goes down with a big bang, the world goes with it. Hating America is one thing. Killing your biggest customer is another.
not a big bang, more like a long drawn out sucking sound.

And its a big world. USA has ~5% of world population. If std of living and hyperconsumption habits ease in USA maybe China, Brazil, India can take up some slack.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,942
  • Oct 28, 2011 12:46am Oct 28, 2011 12:46am
Quoting AaronWard
Almost, but not completely. The US has a few Achilles heels. But it also has a few aces in the hole. What seems clear to me is that nobody, (Americans, Europeans, Chinese, etc) is happy with the status quo.
The achilles heel most evident in my opinion is hyperinflation. QE to infinity will not last. The empire has spread itself too thin. History has proven time and time again that there is never too great an empire to fall. I am the proudest American in town but sometimes you have to call a spade a spade.
  • #5,943
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:00am Oct 28, 2011 1:00am
Quoting chodd22
The achilles heel most evident in my opinion is hyperinflation. QE to infinity will not last. The empire has spread itself too thin. History has proven time and time again that there is never too great an empire to fall. I am the proudest American in town but sometimes you have to call a spade a spade.
how is life in the US with the economy going on right now?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,944
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:05am Oct 28, 2011 1:05am
Quoting bumapatria
how is life in the US with the economy going on right now?
Media makes it out to be worse than it is...middle class are managing in my opinion. I truly don't know anyone out of work that shouldn't be...if you get my meaning. And my small business is hiring currently with great growth. Not much to complain about other than a short I made earlier this week...hahaha
  • #5,945
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:11am Oct 28, 2011 1:11am
I have for some time thought the following would be an intersting poll:

"Given total control of sufficient nuclear weapons to completely erase any country on the planet - which would be you primary target, which would be your second and third."

I wonder what percentage of the world populatioon would place the US as number 1.
  • #5,946
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:12am Oct 28, 2011 1:12am
Quoting chodd22
Media makes it out to be worse than it is...middle class are managing in my opinion. I truly don't know anyone out of work that shouldn't be...if you get my meaning. And my small business is hiring currently with great growth. Not much to complain about other than a short I made earlier this week...hahaha
ok good... lol shorts... hehe.. dont worry itll come to cycle real soon.

that long was predicted.. yet not taken. ill show my chart once again.

hehe sucky for me it was predicted 15 days ago with demand and support levels all over the area lol hahahahahaha
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,947
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:12am Oct 28, 2011 1:12am
Quoting lovepips
Hi PT,
Today has been a very exciting day with the euro exceeding most peoples expectations. I understand that there is usually a pullback after such a bullish run - so far it seems to have pulled back to the 23.6% level. In your opinion is it probable that this is all it will pullback before going further?

The reason I ask is, the news from europe seems to be far above what most people expected and there does appear to be a chance of this solution working. If that's the case, isn't the euro bull run going to continue (especially in relation...
Hi LovePips
Sorry I didn't respond earlier as I needed sleep.
Anyway, I might have answered you by saying I expect a retrace to around the low 1.41 area but it seems now that Asia did not give it to us and I doubt very much we're going to get it today. The bulls rage on. I will post an update with my projections shortly.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,948
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:14am Oct 28, 2011 1:14am
Quoting Khazul
I have for some time thought the following would be an intersting poll:

"Given total control of sufficient nuclear weapons to completely erase any country on the planet - which would be you primary target, which would be your second and third."

I wonder what percentage of the world populatioon would place the US as number 1.
i would say id destroy the bombs. no civiliazation deserves mass extinction that is horrifying and terrible. i would destroy the nukes, deactivate them, and dispose of them in a safe non-radioactive kind of way.

i say you delete that post dude i find it very disturbing for such thing to happen
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,949
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:25am Oct 28, 2011 1:25am
do u thing it short around 1.4000 area?.....seem in 4hrs reversal candle but not yet confirm since the 2nd candle going bullish..
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #5,950
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:26am Oct 28, 2011 1:26am
Quoting Goody
Well what a story I have to tell went out yesterday morning OZ time the price was 13860ish, and my loving wife saw a JP Morgan report on the web and decided to put in a sell for me with no stop loss as a suprise for when I return from my real job, and 300pips later SUPRISE
I have decided to leve it open and belive it will come back.

PS the wife now knows to leve well enough alone..
Another poster here once said that having a wife is like trading without a stop loss. I didn't think he meant it literally

Anyway, jokes aside, I'm sorry for your loss (well it's not a loss till you close the position). I hope it's a small position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,951
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:29am Oct 28, 2011 1:29am
Quoting Khazul
I have for some time thought the following would be an intersting poll:

"Given total control of sufficient nuclear weapons to completely erase any country on the planet - which would be you primary target, which would be your second and third."

I wonder what percentage of the world populatioon would place the US as number 1.
I agree dude, for whatever reason, I get the feeling you made the statement simply cause you have the US at #1. Kind of a creepy post man. Stick to currencies and analysis.

PEACE
  • #5,952
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:33am Oct 28, 2011 1:33am
Quoting bumapatria
how is life in the US with the economy going on right now?
I'm an American and I can't agree with Chod's view.. The economy is down and getting worse! Unemployment is high and that doesn't include those who aren't receiving unemployment benefits. Economic growth is at a stand still while the housing market continues to depreciate. If you need proof just look at American news with Occupy Wallstreet. I know news media spreads propaganda but I can vouch for the chaos.
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #5,953
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:34am Oct 28, 2011 1:34am
Quoting radit27
do u thing it short around 1.4000 area?.....seem in 4hrs reversal candle but not yet confirm since the 2nd candle going bullish..
Its definitely established support at 1.41650. I don't see a strong reversal candle yet on my 4hr. If it can't pierce the support, it could be consolidating again or going sideways since the trend had been heavily established.

Then again, what do I know
  • #5,954
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:35am Oct 28, 2011 1:35am
Quoting Khazul
I have for some time thought the following would be an intersting poll:

"Given total control of sufficient nuclear weapons to completely erase any country on the planet - which would be you primary target, which would be your second and third."

I wonder what percentage of the world populatioon would place the US as number 1.
I would never participate in any such poll unless one of the answers was "nobody"
Actually I'm not sure I would even participate at all.
Even the thought of a nuclear attack just makes me sick.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,955
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:46am Oct 28, 2011 1:46am
we've got roughly 2 more weeks in the moon cycle (its 29 not 27. 29 is the synodic period) keep an eye on the date is at 11th of november . give and take few days before and after. 9th-12th of November.

4300 seems the ceiling to me.

moon cycle chart. sometimes its early, or lagging few days, due to the synodic period not being a solid number like most synodic periods. on my previous saturn chart, i believe we might hit below first and re-enter possibly bullish again. the cycle is 60 days away from now.

chart 1 is with the grid.

chart 2 is with the master chart. we have come upon a bearish resistance area right now on the M.C. interesection points are important. and 2nd compound sell placed.
total current loss -3%.
from yesterday's -5%.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,956
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:47am Oct 28, 2011 1:47am
Yesterday was a major squeeze for the shorts which left many short positions underwater or stopped out. With a 350 pip surge such as that which took even me by total surprise is going to have some impact on general sentiment.
Most inexperienced traders will now be looking for long positions, but the time to do that was at 1.30 or 1.35 or even 1.40 but it's too late now.
Sure, price can still go up from here... maybe even as high as 1.45 but it's a low probability.
Right now we are sitting around 75 pips under the 1.4250 resistance. If the market manages to bid up again today (which I see as a likely scenario unless we get a bad French Consumer spending number in 2 minutes) then I will be targeting the 1.4380 area.
To the downside, we will first have to test the resistance turned support at 1.41 before making our way down to the next support at 1.4025

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,957
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:48am Oct 28, 2011 1:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
I would never participate in any such poll unless one of the answers was "nobody"
Actually I'm not sure I would even participate at all.
Even the thought of a nuclear attack just makes me sick.
exactly. its not just sick. its horrifying, and killing millions and millions. its extinguishing the ecosystem there, survivors are bound DEAD with radiation, land is gone, it would be mutated in several of years, mutated creatures would be there... and radioactive fallout would be there...

so take of that post khazul please.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,958
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:51am Oct 28, 2011 1:51am
French Consumer Spending (m/m) is down -0.6% vs an expected increase of +0.1% and last months figure of +0.2%

This is just the start of what I expect to be a series of lower than expected econ data from the EuroZone which will have a negative impact on the Euro.
The only thing that we need now is a string of positive econ data from the US. Once that combination is in play, the ECB will have no choice but to start easing monetary policy which should see the euro pare back much of it's gains.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,959
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:52am Oct 28, 2011 1:52am
Quoting bumapatria
exactly. its not just sick. its horrifying, and killing millions and millions. its extinguishing the ecosystem there, survivors are bound DEAD with radiation, land is gone, it would be mutated in several of years, mutated creatures would be there... and radioactive fallout would be there...

so take of that post khazul please.
Ha Ha... You are 100% correct but that was a bit graphic. Sometimes, less words are better. More impact
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,960
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:57am Oct 28, 2011 1:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
French Consumer Spending (m/m) is down -0.6% vs an expected increase of +0.1% and last months figure of +0.2%

This is just the start of what I expect to be a series of lower than expected econ data from the EuroZone which will have a negative impact on the Euro.
The only thing that we need now is a string of positive econ data from the US. Once that combination is in play, the ECB will have no choice but to start easing monetary policy which should see the euro pare back much of it's gains.
details.. sorry PT, truth is harsh sometimes, and all of it sux doesnt it?
its even better if this comes out of France. giants of europe falling is a greater chance of the big drop we expect.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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