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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #5,841
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:59am Oct 27, 2011 10:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Stop -20 pips - Bad Trade - Interesting
Merkozy shamans casted powerfull spells on EUR It will keep searching for SLs until there are any sell orders in the market. But when everybody will turn flat or bullish then the curse will be broken and EUR will teleport to 1.25 level

<don't listen to crystall ball mambo jumbo!>

But honestly... I start to wonder if hacking the whole banking system and faking the price would be a fundie good enough for EUR to be that high

EUR will need to get jailed soon, being THAT HIGH is illegal in almost whole EZ

No, really, she flies like a G6 today. I guess Gofer's bomb skyrocketed it instead of tearing up I am just glad I abandoned the ship many pips lower, and overall I make a tiny gain this week. Usually I get caught in such "smashing surprises".
  • #5,842
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:01am Oct 27, 2011 11:01am
Quoting Pipsforall
The talking heads on CNBC believe the DOW will end up 350 to 400 points today. It has been said, therefore, it shall come. lol Btw, CDS market, a total joke, can never take it seriously again.
I would be really angry if I was a Greek bond holder and I couldn't cash in on my insurance. I am thinking of all those pension funds that have a large holding of sovereign debt in the portfolio. I hope it's not all Greek.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,843
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:07am Oct 27, 2011 11:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
The bulls have slowed down a bit but I expect another surge later in NY session. Then we need a correction.

ADD : Congrats by the way. Now you can pay for that new car your wife got
Thank you. I'm going to wait out NY lunch, see what she does and mabey step back in this afternoon. Going to go clean up her 2006 Jetta TDI so I can get it sold and stick that money back in our money market fund.

Probably pay off the new car in a couple months. Put a good chunk down on it and don't owe much. Interest rate is really low so I'll pay on the loan a few months to make a nice mark on my credit score and pay it off.

Good credit's pretty handy when you buy somethng on a whim like that and havn't transferred money into the checking account yet.

The wife's not a gold digger and has stood by through thick and thin and never asked for much so when she wants something she gets it.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,844
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:08am Oct 27, 2011 11:08am
Wonder what the rate decision will be coming thursday. Maybe a start to get it lower?

Quoting PipTrapper
The Euro economy needs a lower Euro. Probably around 1.30 is okay.

The higher this goes, the worse the German and other euro economies will get because it will hurt their exports.

Only China will gain in the short term but they too will hurt in the long term when the euro economy slows to a grind.

Because of the issues with the central banks (FED, ECB, BOE, BOJ, etc) the euro may manage to see a higher value but it cannot last long.

Also on the equities and commodities front, there is a lot of re-positioning going on. I do not believe that...
  • #5,845
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:08am Oct 27, 2011 11:08am
Quoting lolygagv2
If you listen to quotes like this, and the fact everyone is starting to say "I'm flat" "I'm flat" when we know statistically most of you guys were short, means we are reaching capitulation.

Especially when CNBC makes the above call haha, yeah because agreeing to have a plan and agreeing that they need money in europe is tantamount to another 5-10% gain. I think we're also seeing a lot of shorts squeezed in this with new money, but it'll be over soon.
I think we've still got a few more days of bullish or sideways action here.
I say the markets are bid right into the last minute tomorrow.
Next week, however, will be a cautious market as the problems with the current Euro plan to have a plan start to surface.

Till then I am flat. I am a bear in this market. I don't buy bubbles, not do I have to.

If I was convinced that the economic prospects of Europe were improved, I would right now be nursing several long positions. But I really don't see how a strong euro is good for European growth.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,846
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:09am Oct 27, 2011 11:09am
Omg that idiot Tom sold it again. 0,2% risk now.

Guys you know the rule:

Keep hitting tops
Keep hitting lows
Repeat until broke

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,847
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:10am Oct 27, 2011 11:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think we've still got a few more days of bullish or sideways action here.
I say the markets are bid right into the last minute tomorrow.
Next week, however, will be a cautious market as the problems with the current Euro plan to have a plan start to surface.

Till then I am flat. I am a bear in this market. I don't buy bubbles, not do I have to.

If I was convinced that the economic prospects of Europe were improved, I would right now be nursing several long positions. But I really don't see how a strong euro is good for European growth.
well said, I took a short at the start of this candle just for the hell of it. lost 7 bucks..... LOL now I got it out of my system.
Lets do this...
  • #5,848
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:13am Oct 27, 2011 11:13am
BTW, does anyone remember the bullish flag on H4? the one we considered HS at first. Seems it worked after all, about 100-200 pips higher and it will make same growth from 1.37 as it did from 1.31 to 1.39. This means, 1.45? You never know, but it sounds interesting.
  • #5,849
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:13am Oct 27, 2011 11:13am
Quoting TheSwede
Wonder what the rate decision will be coming thursday. Maybe a start to get it lower?
I wouldn't bet on a rate cut, but the language Draghi uses may hint towards one in December or January. Italian central bankers tend to be more loose with monetary policy. It will be interesting to see what he does his first month on the job.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,850
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:16am Oct 27, 2011 11:16am
Quoting Blobik
BTW, does anyone remember the bullish flag on H4? the one we considered HS at first. Seems it worked after all, about 100-200 pips higher and it will make same growth from 1.37 as it did from 1.31 to 1.39. This means, 1.45? You never know, but it sounds interesting.
I wouldn't rule that out. Hey, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall when the time comes.

I am aiming more around the 1.4250 area as a max though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,851
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:17am Oct 27, 2011 11:17am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
First of all I would like to thank you guys for hitting my SL.
You're welcome

Look on the bright side........The money wasn't lost..... It was simply transfered from one account to another.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,852
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:28am Oct 27, 2011 11:28am
Getting close to my sell targets, will wait for PA confirmation, but even with confirmation, do I want to get in the way of the daily 400 point gains as the DOW hammers its way to 20,000 on the back of very strong global economic growth led by the Eurozone. I just don't know what to do, sure, I want to short the Euro, but in the face of all that global growth and a DOW that just won't stop till 20,000 is hit, I just am completely puzzled on my next move. lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,853
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:29am Oct 27, 2011 11:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't rule that out. Hey, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall when the time comes.

I am aiming more around the 1.4250 area as a max though.
1.4250?may I take a look the chart mate?


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #5,854
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:29am Oct 27, 2011 11:29am
I know I've only made one post in this thread, and got told off a bit from PT, so I thought I'd try to redeem myself by pointing out this trade this afternoon.

Looking at the 4H EU chart there was a lovely bullish pin bar completed. I've seen it too many times over the past weeks when this happens in line with the up trend, that once price breaks the top of that pin bar, a nice continuation move has happened more often than not. So I entered above the high of said pin bar, with a first target just below the RN of 41, at 4090.

Attached Image


After that got hit, I'm just trailing my stop up on the 15m, which is now at 4140. Just below the 4150 and at the high of the little 15m pullback.

Attached Image


My ultimate target is the daily 61% fib at 4250, as seen as price has already taken out a shorter term 61% fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2011-10-27 at 17.24.02.png Size: 85 KB


Trailing my stops up at logical areas, trying to keep it tight. Don't want to get greedy.
  • #5,855
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:38am Oct 27, 2011 11:38am
Ok, another SL hit. 0,8% accumulated loss. I am going to punish my brain, since I can neither sell and neither buy here, as my Tom Zone got penetrated and price is floating in a zone without a top (except of 423x weekly R3 and Daily R3, which I dont trust).

Cya @ Sydney.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,856
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:43am Oct 27, 2011 11:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, another SL hit. 0,8% accumulated loss. I am going to punish my brain, since I can neither sell and neither buy here, as my Tom Zone got penetrated and price is floating in a zone without a top (except of 423x weekly R3 and Daily R3, which I dont trust).

Cya @ Sydney.

T.
Just go with the flow until you see PA confirmation of a reversal. Funnymentals have really taken over the market, at some point fundamentals matter, but right now its all about funnymentals.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #5,857
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:43am Oct 27, 2011 11:43am
Quoting picon1
I know I've only made one post in this thread, and got told off a bit from PT, so I thought I'd try to redeem myself by pointing out this trade this afternoon.

Looking at the 4H EU chart there was a lovely bullish pin bar completed. I've seen it too many times over the past weeks when this happens in line with the up trend, that once price breaks the top of that pin bar, a nice continuation move has happened more often than not. So I entered above the high of said pin bar, with a first target just below the RN of 41, at 4090.

Attachment

After...
Nice charts picon.
You fully redeemed yourself the same day I told you off so no worries.
Glad to have you posting here.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,858
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:57am Oct 27, 2011 11:57am
now looking on monthly chart I am would be more interested to see 1.4290 resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Monthly.png Size: 42 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #5,859
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:59am Oct 27, 2011 11:59am
Quoting FXMindset
1.4250?may I take a look the chart mate?


Thanks
Here you go

Confluence of:
1. Rising Channel Support
2. 61.8% Blue Fibo
3. 78.6% Orange Fibo
4. MacD Bearish Divergence
5. Overbought Stochastics

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 27 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,860
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:05pm Oct 27, 2011 12:05pm
Still have no idea why when the Dow is up the dollar cracks, seems it would be the opposite, but still need to figure that one out. I would have take a short sometime on this riser but with my new probability scoring there was no way, system dictated that I sit on my hands for a short, it did not say long either, scoring was stuck in the middle, very humbling indeed.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
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