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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #7,081
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:25pm Oct 25, 2011 1:25pm
I bet nobody traded this precious GOLD'en candy =)
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  • #7,082
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:55am Oct 26, 2011 8:55am
Don't post much, nor trade these templates, but just for the sake of it, todays #18.4 on Cable was a candy not to be missed. 11 pips risk in exchange for 125 pips profit. Not too bad I'd say ,)
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  • #7,083
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:04am Oct 26, 2011 9:04am
Quoting belekas
Don't post much, nor trade these templates, but just for the sake of it, todays #18.4 on Cable was a candy not to be missed. 11 pips risk in exchange for 125 pips profit. Not too bad I'd say ,)
I don't trade this method for a long time, 5 months or so, but again and again the market proves to me that if one would trade only 18.4's that also have technical reasons behind (like a trend line break or something significant), then the win rate would be much higher.

P.S. Just like cable there was a successful 18.4 on AUDUSD, following the intra month trendline break.

Cheers,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,084
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:31am Oct 26, 2011 11:31am
Quoting soso
I don't trade this method for a long time, 5 months or so, but again and again the market proves to me that if one would trade only 18.4's that also have technical reasons behind (like a trend line break or something significant), then the win rate would be much higher.

P.S. Just like cable there was a successful 18.4 on AUDUSD, following the intra month trendline break.

Cheers,
-soso
It's all about them lines in the sand...But there are other occasions when #18.4 works like a dream, but I will not go in detail, but will just post a trade when it happens for ya'll to figure it out ,)
  • #7,085
  • Edited 5:10am Oct 27, 2011 4:46am | Edited 5:10am
Jumped in USDCHF just below the weekly high yesterday. 127 pips floating already. Might let this one run lower as there was a H&S pattern present on dailies. (also posted here by PutaMadre ;-)).

There are some other reasons I believe the USD has a bit more room for downside correction before it charges up again.
  • #7,086
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:10am Oct 27, 2011 5:10am
Some rounded top formation on GBP hourlies TF, assuming that most of majors already running on excessive ADTR, i would bet the we will see it trading lower in NY session...

just my 2 cents of logic here
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  • #7,087
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:15am Oct 27, 2011 5:15am
Quoting PutaMadre
Some rounded top formation on GBP hourlies TF, assuming that most of majors already running on excessive ADTR, i would bet the we will see it trading lower in NY session...

just my 2 cents of logic here
I agree. As I have posted earlier on my facebook and on the blog, MOT targets for a few diamonds and MACD divergencies pointed to some upside moves on Euro, GBPUSD, DOW, OIL and USDx fot hat matter to the downside.

We are very close to the MOT targets on all these instruments.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another USD bullish run next week.
  • #7,088
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:18am Oct 27, 2011 5:18am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I agree. As I have posted earlier on my facebook and on the blog, MOT targets for a few diamonds and MACD divergencies pointed to some upside moves on Euro, GBPUSD, DOW, OIL and USDx fot hat matter to the downside.

We are very close to the MOT targets on all these instruments.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another USD bullish run next week.
As they say - What comes up must go down )
  • #7,089
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:10am Oct 27, 2011 6:10am
Quoting PutaMadre
Some rounded top formation on GBP hourlies TF, assuming that most of majors already running on excessive ADTR, i would bet the we will see it trading lower in NY session...

just my 2 cents of logic here
My same thought, shorted the top this morning and lost... I guess following the trend is much easier than trying to buck it. For me!

That's it, I call it a week. All in all, had a tough month... Have to regain focus, will stay away for a while.

Cheers,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,090
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:37am Oct 27, 2011 6:37am
Quoting soso
My same thought, shorted the top this morning and lost... I guess following the trend is much easier than trying to buck it. For me!

That's it, I call it a week. All in all, had a tough month... Have to regain focus, will stay away for a while.

Cheers,
-soso
Trading by trying to pick tops or bottoms is not good as even Igrok mentioned in his book. Trading with the trend will enhance ones odds most of the times. But this market was really tough these last weeks, even following the trend.

Cheer up buddy. Put your head up and trust yourself.
  • #7,091
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:04am Oct 27, 2011 7:04am
Quoting soso
My same thought, shorted the top this morning and lost... I guess following the trend is much easier than trying to buck it. For me!

That's it, I call it a week. All in all, had a tough month... Have to regain focus, will stay away for a while.

Cheers,
-soso
I think both ways needs lot's of practice to master it. Anyway it's a number game when it comes to equity curve, you can be 10 times wrong fading the trend and have enormous r/r when susceed to catch one...

P.s. next barrier for usd bear could be the h&s target on swissey daily tf.
  • #7,092
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:47am Oct 27, 2011 7:47am
Am still up on my small account since started trading it...

Funny thing is that at first I liked more the technical setups, especially trendline breaks, and it worked like a charm.
The difference is that this month I took A LOT of ID 18.4 trades and lost most of them draining my account.

Anyhow I'm more a of a trend follower type of guy (always been) and I have a tendency to let trades run, so I rarely close all the position at ADR or EOD, probbabily that's what makes the difference with 18.4s.

So for now will just go back to what works for me. Won't take blind 18.4s again. Unless there is some sort of technical support.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,093
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:19am Oct 27, 2011 8:19am
Quoting soso
Am still up on my small account since started trading it...

Funny thing is that at first I liked more the technical setups, especially trendline breaks, and it worked like a charm.
The difference is that this month I took A LOT of ID 18.4 trades and lost most of them draining my account.

Anyhow I'm more a of a trend follower type of guy (always been) and I have a tendency to let trades run, so I rarely close all the position at ADR or EOD, probbabily that's what makes the difference with 18.4s.

So for now will just go back to what works...
I was also very keen in this strategy, i even use it in my bachelor diploma as a practice experiment .
One more thing that i noticed recently, as talking about price ability to flip it's MM during the day - the number of price flip's decreases significantly as we move forward in time. I came to stats that after the beginning of NY session, there is about 80% posibility for the price to stay in the same MM till EOD. I have done this for GBP/USD two months data...
  • #7,094
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:26am Oct 27, 2011 8:26am
For what it's worth...

Silver H1 Triangle consolidating above broken resistance, so expecting a continuation to the up side, technical wise.

After breaking the triangle to the upside all MMs are up now, weekly & daily still under-extended so there's till a bit of of place to extend.

This feels much better, trading with the trend.

P.S. EURJPY was also under-extend on all timeframes. Was expecting an upside breakout to the upside since changing MMOTW to UP. This one I didn't take.

Have a good one fellas,
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,095
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:32am Oct 27, 2011 8:32am
Quoting PutaMadre
I was also very keen in this strategy, i even use it in my bachelor diploma as a practice experiment .
One more thing that i noticed recently, as talking about price ability to flip it's MM during the day - the number of price flip's decreases significantly as we move forward in time. I came to stats that after the beginning of NY session, there is about 80% posibility for the price to stay in the same MM till EOD. I have done this for GBP/USD two months data...
Thanks PutaMadre, interesting stats, although I find them "normal" since moving forward in time means the range keeps expanding more & more so reversing it entirely becomes much harder.

Igrok said that MM flipping is harder on larger timeframes (weekly & UP). I clearly remember it as was reading some of the thread last night. This needs stats. I don't have time these days but it's a must.

But the most important stat for me, is by far the probability of e certain range % fulfillment, as I posted a couple of months ago. This allows me to enter when the range is small and if I nail the low/high then I have 2/3 chance to hit 80% - TP1 for me, usually.

Cheers,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,096
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:45am Oct 27, 2011 8:45am
Quoting soso
Thanks PutaMadre, interesting stats, although I find them "normal" since moving forward in time means the range keeps expanding more & more so reversing it entirely becomes much harder.

Igrok said that MM flipping is harder on larger timeframes (weekly & UP). I clearly remember it as was reading some of the thread last night. This needs stats. I don't have time these days but it's a must.

But the most important stat for me, is by far the probability of e certain range % fulfillment, as I posted a couple of months ago. This allows me to...
I hope Igrok will explain ADR concept in next book more clearly .
  • #7,097
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:05am Oct 27, 2011 10:05am
Quoting PutaMadre
I was also very keen in this strategy, i even use it in my bachelor diploma as a practice experiment .
One more thing that i noticed recently, as talking about price ability to flip it's MM during the day - the number of price flip's decreases significantly as we move forward in time. I came to stats that after the beginning of NY session, there is about 80% posibility for the price to stay in the same MM till EOD. I have done this for GBP/USD two months data...

How cool, what bachelor are you taking? Mine would be only half as interesting as yours lol.

This sounds about right and is in essence 18.4 at its best. Did you do it on other pairs too?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #7,098
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:42am Oct 27, 2011 10:42am
Quoting aediaz1
How cool, what bachelor are you taking? Mine would be only half as interesting as yours lol.

This sounds about right and is in essence 18.4 at its best. Did you do it on other pairs too?
I took finance diploma this summer and thesis was related to Forex, it was funny when i was presenting it to the audience, i think they don't understood a damn thing there ).

I did it on GBP/USD and EUR/USD, both came up with edge there . I thought about this, after noticing that some times you can fall into chop when trying to follow every price flip after EU session start... then taking trades in the second half of a trading day, reduces it a lot
  • #7,099
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:48am Oct 27, 2011 10:48am
Quoting aediaz1
How cool, what bachelor are you taking? Mine would be only half as interesting as yours lol.

This sounds about right and is in essence 18.4 at its best. Did you do it on other pairs too?
I have read in here, bu Igrok himself, that number MM change is very relevant and harder to happen in weekly/monthly/yearly basis. ID, as Aediaz stated on a previous post is not a factor profit wise.

I am trying to run a few tests regarding timing, minimum/maximum for 18.4 entry. I will begin my tests with 45%-60%, on the later hours of Europe/first hours of NY. Will try to get back with some stats.

Regardless of the stats, I believe there should be a way to recognize when to trade 18.4 , for example, and when not to trade it. I have also read in here that the man himself has different strategies regarding sideways market.

So, as PM said, maybe we have to wait for further clarification in his new book.
  • #7,100
  • Edited 2:05pm Oct 27, 2011 12:51pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting PutaMadre
I took finance diploma this summer and thesis was related to Forex, it was funny when i was presenting it to the audience, i think they don't understood a damn thing there ).

I did it on GBP/USD and EUR/USD, both came up with edge there . I thought about this, after noticing that some times you can fall into chop when trying to follow every price flip after EU session start... then taking trades in the second half of a trading day, reduces it a lot
Interesting data on GBPUSD for the last 30 trading days:

MM didn't change after 12:00 GMT (NY OPEN) until end of day 73% of the times.

ADR within trading range of 40% - 60% of ADR happened 43.3% of the times before 12:00 GMT.

Therefore, my premature conclusion on such small data collection is that there should be an optimal time window (lets say 9:30 - 12:00 GMT) in which we have a higher probability of getting entries within range and that will have less chances of changing the MM until the end of the trading day at the same time.

* forgot to mention that on 57% of the times, range was too big to be traded when this particular time (NY open) was reached.

Will try to keep running tests.

People could help out here...
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